Hyde: "I won't manage to the save stat"

[Frobby]

It will be interesting to see how Hyde uses his best reliever, whoever that turns out to be.    

[now]

11 minutes ago, interloper said:

Maybe. IMO there is no higher leverage than tied on the road in extra innings in the playoffs. You play your best guys to extend the game at any cost. You figure out protecting a lead when you have one.

Showalter is history. So just talking strategy, is the above what all managers do? I doubt it. The "closer" role is imbued with the psychology of the save, not necessarily the same as " highest leverage." I dunno, maybe those are two different job descriptions?

[LookinUp]

4 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Using base/out/run matrices based on historical game data, and win probabilities.  So they figure out how many runs typically score in each inning/out/base situation, and how often you win in each inning/run differential situation.  From there you can give credit or blame to players or teams for deviations from that, and figure out which situations are most or least important.

Made up example... going to the ninth up three runs, nobody on, you win 97% of the time.  Then you just have to assign numbers to high/medium/low leverage, if you want.  97% is pretty low leverage.

I'd imagine a coach would need some references to know those probabilities, especially if they're adjusted for the opponents, in real time.

Ironically, Buck's biggest failures and successes came through his management of the bullpen. This team never had the starters, but did manage to get just enough out of them and the hitters in time to turn the game over to Buck's bullpen. Unfortunately, he won those games while burning JJ, Brach, O'Day and Britton with innings and appearances...and of course the Toronto thing.

[Moose Milligan]

I'm assuming this means there's no pressure coming down from Elias to pump up save stats in order to trade a guy like Givens.

 

 

[LookinUp]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

I'm assuming this means there's no pressure coming down from Elias to pump up save stats in order to trade a guy like Givens.

 

 

I'd imagine front offices are becoming savvy enough to look for real value beyond the save stat, and that our front office is savvy enough to sell it.

[DrungoHazewood]

4 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I'd imagine a coach would need some references to know those probabilities, especially if they're adjusted for the opponents, in real time.

Ironically, Buck's biggest failures and successes came through his management of the bullpen. This team never had the starters, but did manage to get just enough out of them and the hitters in time to turn the game over to Buck's bullpen. Unfortunately, he won those games while burning JJ, Brach, O'Day and Britton with innings and appearances...and of course the Toronto thing.

At the time, the 2012 pen had the highest WPA of all time. Buck was either very lucky or masterful.  Probably a bit of each.

[theocean]

8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm assuming this means there's no pressure coming down from Elias to pump up save stats in order to trade a guy like Givens.

 

 

I think front offices are smart enough now that they aren't just going to look at the saves stat when trading for a guy.

Last year, Shane Greene had 32 saves while posting a 5.12 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Brad Boxberger had 32 saves with 4.39 ERA and 1.37 WHIP while not being particularly great.

The most important thing is that Givens can prove that he can pitch well in important situations. If he can, they should be able to get a nice prospect back for him.

 

[atomic]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Good idea since the O's won't be having many save chances.

The Orioles closer:

[LookinUp]

23 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

At the time, the 2012 pen had the highest WPA of all time. Buck was either very lucky or masterful.  Probably a bit of each.

Yup, and at the end of it, JJ was never the same. Buck worked him like a dog.

[LookinUp]

33 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It will be interesting to see how Hyde uses his best reliever, whoever that turns out to be.    

True, if Hyde thinks he even has one guy who projects as a good high leverage guy. I'm not sure we have that guy who is good enough to not be exposed with too much emphasis on high-leverage situations. 

[Frobby]

29 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I'd imagine a coach would need some references to know those probabilities, especially if they're adjusted for the opponents, in real time.

Ironically, Buck's biggest failures and successes came through his management of the bullpen. This team never had the starters, but did manage to get just enough out of them and the hitters in time to turn the game over to Buck's bullpen. Unfortunately, he won those games while burning JJ, Brach, O'Day and Britton with innings and appearances...and of course the Toronto thing.

Couldn’t disagree more.   Buck was a brilliant bullpen manager.  (Leave the Toronto game out of this.)    Our bullpen was spectacular almost the whole time he was here.    And he was very careful how often he used his guys , with a few exceptions.   

[Redskins Rick]

Strange reading Dubroff in the Washtimes

Quote

“I think it’s pretty open,” Hyde said. “It’s a great opportunity for everybody in camp. A lot of jobs to be won.”

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/feb/13/orioles-manager-brandon-hyde-says-several-position/

[MikeAD]

Hyde: "I would never leave my best pitcher on the bench with the game on the line like the bozo before me" 

 

 

edit: only joking. Get this off season over already. 

[Redskins Rick]

4 minutes ago, MikeAD said:

Hyde: "I would never leave my best pitcher on the bench with the game on the line like the bozo before me" 

Huh, so Hyde really called Buck a bozo?

[LookinUp]

22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Couldn’t disagree more.   Buck was a brilliant bullpen manager.  (Leave the Toronto game out of this.)    Our bullpen was spectacular almost the whole time he was here.    And he was very careful how often he used his guys , with a few exceptions.   

Day in, day out, yes. I think he burnt JJ out and then stuck with him too long. I think he did the same with Brach and Britton. Maybe those arms were all set for big setbacks, but I think he managed for today, not tomorrow. That's perfectly fine in the short term, but it came back to bite us in games that mattered, and ultimately left him without enough bullets to fire in the end.