Luke’s Draft Musings

[Luke-OH]

Some other college players I've been able to watch game video of and have impressed.

Nick Grande - SS - Stony Brook - not much power, but can really pick it at SS and has a patient approach with good bat speed, plus runner

Ryan Jensen - RHP - Fresno State -  I mentioned him a while back on Twitter but I forgot to make note of him here. He sits in the mid 90s, t98 with late life. About as premium of a fastball as you'll find in the college ranks. Not a big guy and he doesn't have a good secondary pitch yet, but he's athletic and physically strong on the mound. He might be a reliever long term but could be a good one. 

Nick Kahle - C - Washington - The guy doesn't have premium tools but a great approach and balance at the plate, he's not going to be an elite defensive catcher but he'll stick. He profiles as a backup catcher at the next level. Some chance for more if the power continues to develop. 

Dasan Brown - CF - Canada HS - Super premium bat speed, but not polished at the plate and not a ton of present strength. Plus runner, some ceiling to the bat when he gets stronger and cleans up his approach. 

 T.J. Sikkema - LHP - Missouri - funky low slot lefty with legit velocity, 91-94 with sink. Slider flashes and has feel for a changeup. 4th/5th starter, GB innings eater type profile. Would be great value in the 4th if he gets that far.

Kody Hoese - 3B -Tulane - breakout power bat, creates great leverage, a major damage on contact guy with an athletic frame who should stick at 3B. He's may be an option at #42 overall, I need to see more defense.

Tommy Jew - CF - UCSB -  one of the few speed/power CF out there in the college class (outside of Misner/Bishop who are going early in the first round), not a big guy but doesn't get cheated at the plate, uses his lower half well. Some swing and miss, but a good athlete. Another guy I think would be great value in the 4th.

Brandon Lewis - 3B - UC Irvine - JC transfer with plus raw power and natural loft to the swing to get to it in game, has improved defensively at 3B with D1 coaching but may have to move to 1B or a corner outfield spot. 

Evan Brabrand - RHP - Liberty - older guy, 23 years old, 5th year senior, those guys usually aren't prospects. Brabrand is, he spins a curveball at 3000rpm, can pitch strictly off of an above average 86-90mph cutter, but also can run a 4S up to 95. Fast moving multi-inning reliever.

Jacob Wallace - RHP - UConn - A max effort, pitbull reliever with a fastball up to 97 with life. He also has an above average slider. Control over command and probably won't ever be a command guy, but a fast moving reliever

[baltfan]

On 4/8/2019 at 9:23 AM, WalkWithElias said:

If the Baseball Gods could promise you Rutschman's career is identical to Wieters, would you take that over what Witt could become?

Looks a little faster than Weiters. 

 

[Jammer7]

@Luke-OH Any thoughts on Quinn Preister (IL HS)? Seen a little video. The story goes that he taught himself to pitch. Maybe round 3?

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, Jammer7 said:

@Luke-OH Any thoughts on Quinn Preister (IL HS)? Seen a little video. The story goes that he taught himself to pitch. Maybe round 3?

I wasn’t overly impressed with last summer’s video, thought he’d go late enough (3rd-4th) to school, but it looks like the velocity is improved and wouldn’t be surprised if he slips into the first round if he holds the stuff he showed his first outing of the spring for crosscheckers and decision makers to see.

[Frobby]

Who are some guys with a 50/50 chance of being available when our second round pick comes around?    Seems to me that could be our toughest pick in this draft.

[Luke-OH]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Who are some guys with a 50/50 chance of being available when our second round pick comes around?    Seems to me that could be our toughest pick in this draft.

Hard to say with HS kids, there are probably 20-30 names who could go as high as the teens or as low as the late second (or fall out of the top ten rounds with a big signing bonus ask).

College guys (going off other people’s rankings, because some of these guys I am much higher or lower on) who could be there in no particular order.

Jackson Rutledge - hard throwing, big bodied JUCO arm with some relief risk

Seth Johnson- I’ve wrote about him a ton and think he should go earlier, but teams are risk adverse

Greg Jones - former O’s unsigned pick, toolsy SS (draft eligible Soph), has gotten stronger from HS days and has 55 raw power, 70 speed, still pretty raw though

Graeme Stinson - most people’s top arm coming into the spring, but he broke down under a starter’s workload and lost almost 10 mph on the FB and now hasn’t pitched in awhile, probably injured. At his best he was upper 90s LH velocity and best slider in the class. Hard to tell where he’ll go without seeing the medicals 

Matt Canterino - I have him lower, low 90s righty with funk and pitch-ability. Also a good curveball. Control over command, backend type without a ton of upside IMO

Drey Jameson- Soph eligible righty was plus performance to go along with 92-96 t97 and a plus slider, change and command need work, pretty high effort delivery with head whack but is a good athlete and holds velocity well.

Carter Stewart- 9th overall pick last year, playing in JUCO, stuff has taken a step back 

Michael Toglia - tall lanky 1B/maybe COF with athletic actions and big power, may have swing and miss issues due to lever length, hasn’t performed as well as expected thus far

Chase Strumpf - 2B with a bunch of average tools, huge performance last year but has been underwhelming this spring

Matt Wallner -RF with huge raw power, huge arm (96+ on mound), dealt with arm issues that have kept him from being a two way player this spring. He’s also slumped at the plate but appears to be breaking out of it.

Cameron Cannon - 2B/3B with elite approach, quick hands, and a bunch of average tools

Kody Hoese - 3B breakout power bat, dominant performance this spring, scouts reportedly aren’t enthused about his raw tools, but they may be talking about old looks, he’s drastically improved his strength and swing from last summer IMO

Ryan Pepiot - 91-94 with an excellent changeup and high spin curveball and fastball. Good not great performance, not the best athlete. 

Grant Gambrell - RHP up to 97, sits 91-95, mostly lower late in games, good not great performance but potential above average SL and change. 

Guys who should be gone but could slip,

George Kirby - elite performance, above command,and well rounded repertoire but is just a low 90s guy so he could fall.

One of the Will Wilson, Logan Davidson, Branden Shewmake group of big conference SS.

Kameron Misner- tooled up OF who had top 5-10 helium at one point but is showing huge swing and miss against premium competition

Guys I think should be considered but aren’t ranked that highly elsewhere, not an exhaustive list 

Tony Locey

Alec Marsh

 Brady McConnell

Tanner Morris 

 

 

[Luke-OH]

I’ve mentioned Carter Stewart’s stuff taking a step back, here’s what I meant.

Antoine Kelly is a name I should mention, 19 year old upper 90s JUCO lefty, pretty raw, but the upside is huge if he can start.

[Can_of_corn]

31 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I’ve mentioned Carter Stewart’s stuff taking a step back, here’s what I meant.

Antoine Kelly is a name I should mention, 19 year old upper 90s JUCO lefty, pretty raw, but the upside is huge if he can start.

I was curious about why Kelly went to JUCO.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/park-ridge/sports/ct-prh-antoine-kelly-san-diego-padres-mlb-draft-decision-tl-0802-story.html

[Luke-OH]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I was curious about why Kelly went to JUCO.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/park-ridge/sports/ct-prh-antoine-kelly-san-diego-padres-mlb-draft-decision-tl-0802-story.html

The Brewster guy he trains with is one of the best non-affiliated pitching guys out there. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Luke-OH said:

The Brewster guy he trains with is one of the best non-affiliated pitching guys out there. 

Seems like he made the right choice.

[Luke-OH]

Nate Fassnacht and Dante Biasi have now been added to the Fangraphs draft board. My first two under the radar guys are now on the radar.

Under the Radar Favorite #4

Nick Snyder - LHP - 6'7" 220lb - West Virginia

Snyder is a mid-week starter for the Mountaineers, he transfered to WVU after a year at Mercer CC. He only pitched 4 innings for WVU in 2018, but played summer ball in the Atlantic collegiate league and had some success, striking out 14.9 per 9 but also walking over 6 per 9. He's really come into his own in his junior season as he's arguably been the most dominant mid-week starter in the country. At 6'7", Snyder gets down the mound well and uses his lower half effectively, finishing with some recoil and intensity on a firm lead leg. He has a short awkward arm action that lacks fluidity, but adds deception. The fastball ranged from 87-93mph sitting 88-91 in my look with reports that he's been up to 94-95 this spring. He throws from a 3/4 slot and the fastball jumps on hitters and plays above it's velocity, with draftable RH hitters swinging late on 87-88 at times. He tends to cut the fastball when trying to locate gloveside, those pitches are generally lower end of his velocity band. He adds a low 80s changeup, a slider, and a curveball. The breaking balls are pretty similar in movement and velocity and blended together at times. None of the offspeed stuff is particularly good right now, but I see a guy who is a few tweaks away from being a really good prospect. There is more velocity there if he can get better scapular loading and improved shoulder ROM. There is pretty significant risk here due to lack of a track record, unorthodox mechanics, and tight shoulder/pecs so he's not a early round guy. But for a guy who isn't ranked anywhere, he's a easy top 10 round guy for me, 6'7" lefties with his body control and arm speed are rare. 

[panick]

5 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Nate Fassnacht and Dante Biasi have now been added to the Fangraphs draft board. My first two under the radar guys are now on the radar.

Under the Radar Favorite #4

Nick Snyder - LHP - 6'7" 220lb - West Virginia

Snyder is a mid-week starter for the Mountaineers, he transfered to WVU after a year at Mercer CC. He only pitched 4 innings for WVU in 2018, but played summer ball in the Atlantic collegiate league and had some success, striking out 14.9 per 9 but also walking over 6 per 9. He's really come into his own in his junior season as he's arguably been the most dominant mid-week starter in the country. At 6'7", Snyder gets down the mound well and uses his lower half effectively, finishing with some recoil and intensity on a firm lead leg. He has a short awkward arm action that lacks fluidity, but adds deception. The fastball ranged from 87-93mph sitting 88-91 in my look with reports that he's been up to 94-95 this spring. He throws from a 3/4 slot and the fastball jumps on hitters and plays above it's velocity, with draftable RH hitters swinging late on 87-88 at times. He tends to cut the fastball when trying to locate gloveside, those pitches are generally lower end of his velocity band. He adds a low 80s changeup, a slider, and a curveball. The breaking balls are pretty similar in movement and velocity and blended together at times. None of the offspeed stuff is particularly good right now, but I see a guy who is a few tweaks away from being a really good prospect. There is more velocity there if he can get better scapular loading and improved shoulder ROM. There is pretty significant risk here due to lack of a track record, unorthodox mechanics, and tight shoulder/pecs so he's not a early round guy. But for a guy who isn't ranked anywhere, he's a easy top 10 round guy for me, 6'7" lefties with his body control and arm speed are rare. 

Maybe you should keep quiet about these guys. If they stay under the radar there would be more of a chance the O's could pick them.  

[Spl51]

3 hours ago, panick said:

Maybe you should keep quiet about these guys. If they stay under the radar there would be more of a chance the O's could pick them.  

I truly do wonder if there's any chance that it could be seen by teams. I think it's pretty likely that some scouts browse forums looking for little nuggets.

[Luke-OH]

4 hours ago, Spl51 said:

I truly do wonder if there's any chance that it could be seen by teams. I think it's pretty likely that some scouts browse forums looking for little nuggets.

I’m sure Fassnacht was turned in as a follow by a few teams after his time of the Cape and Biasi was drafted so I’m sure some teams were following him. The draft media isn’t onto Snyder yet, but there were a number of scouts who were watching him his last outing, so he’s known to teams. Zac Kent, I’m not sure about, it’s possible that few are on him, but his spin rate on his fastball is elite so I’m sure that’s gotten teams attention.

[Luke-OH]

Under the Radar Favorite #5

Ben Anderson - RHP - 6'4" 200lb - Binghamton

Anderson is the twin brother of the highly touted Braves prospect Ian Anderson. Ben was a catcher and didn't pitch at all until his Junior year of HS. Despite sitting in the mid-80s with his fastball, he was drafted by the Blue Jays in the late rounds, but decided to go to school. He's been a solid performer all three years in college but really started missing bats this year. His fastball now sits in the low 90s and he features a similar high 3/4 release to his more famous brother. He adds a curveball and a changeup, the curveball flashing above average. While he doesn't have quite the fluidity or confidence of his brothers delivery, the mechanics are sound and the frame is prototypical. The near vertical release will help the fastball/curve combo play up and I think there is a chance for more velocity. His skill-set fits well with the Orioles new pitching philosophy and would offer good 5th-8th round value in my opinion.