Do you expect Elias to deal Bundy, Villar, and other vets by the trade deadline?

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So, stay with me here.....let’s say it’s July 15 and through some unusual chain of events the O’s are hovering at .500, maybe a little better.    But unlike some other years, it’s relatively clear that the wild card cutoff will be at 90+, so we’re not really contending for a playoff spot.    Does Elias go into seller mode then, or does he conclude that he’s better off sticking with his core and possibly trying to compete in 2020?

Hey, a man can dream, can’t he?

Nope.  If the O's are not in contention as the deadline approaches Elias sells.  No matter if they are at .500.   Elias is about winning the World Series not just having a good showing.    To do that he needs a core group of young players  that can improve together.   Keeping guys in their their 30's for another .500 run or even a playoff run that does not lead to the World Series is not his game.

[wildcard]

Here  is another indicator.  Houston's July 2012 trades:

July 4, 2012: Carlos Lee Traded by the Houston Astros to the Miami Marlins for Matt Dominguez and Rob Rasmussen

July 20, 2012: JA Happ Traded by the Houston Astros with David Carpenter and Brandon Lyon to the Toronto Blue Jays for a player to be named later, Francisco Cordero, Ben Francisco, Joe Musgrove, Carlos Perez, David Rollins and Asher Wojciechowski. The Toronto Blue Jays sent Kevin Comer (minors) (August 16, 2012) to the Houston Astros to complete the tr

July 21, 2012: SP Brett Myers Traded by the Houston Astros with cash to the Chicago White Sox for a player to be named later, Matt Heidenreich (minors) and Blair Walters (minors). The Chicago White Sox sent Chris Devenski (August 3, 2012) to the Houston Astros to complete the trade.

July 24, 2012: SP Wandy Rodriguez Traded by the Houston Astros to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Colton Cain (minors), Robbie Grossman and Rudy Owens

July 29, 2012: 3B Chris Johnson Traded by the Houston Astros to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Bobby Borchering (minors) and Marc Krauss

[Frobby]

38 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Nope.  If the O's are not in contention as the deadline approaches Elias sells.  No matter if they are at .500.   Elias is about winning the World Series not just having a good showing.    To do that he needs a core group of young players  that can improve together.   Keeping guys in their their 30's for another .500 run or even a playoff run that does not lead to the World Series is not his game.

I think you are right.    However, it might depend a little on why they were .500+.    If Cashner, Cobb and Villar are leading the charge, that’s one thing.   But if some of the younger guys are maxing out and ahead of schedule, that’s a slightly different scenario.    I’m not going to put too much thought into it, since the odds of anything like that happening are at least 50-1 IMO.   But it’s pleasant to contemplate.

[scOtt]

I expect him to deal a piece/pieces absolutely. Who it might be seems complete random chance to me. Everybody is for sale at the right price, just depends on which random team wants X bad enough.

[George Zuverink]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

 

But if the race goes as expected I think Cashner, Trumbo, Cobb, Villar,  Escobar,  Givens, Karns and Bleier  all to be available in the right deal.

Not so much Bundy.   The O's will need someone to start games.  Bundy may be traded in the off season or at the 2020 trade deadline. 

 

Don't understand the logic here. We would trade three starters, but not Bundy because "we will need someone to start games."

[weams]

Everyone of them. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

17 minutes ago, scOtt said:

 Everybody is for sale at the right price, just depends on which random team wants X bad enough.

 

[wildbillhiccup]

Villar, GIvens, and Cobb all need to be traded if we can find takers. It would be nice if Cashner and Trumbo were traded too, but I really don't think they have any value. I'm on the fence about Bundy. My heart says keep him, but my head says trade him. 

[Tx Oriole]

2 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

I personally believe we'll see a multitude of trades, including Bundy, Villar, and a few others.  However, I'm curious if that's the direction other posters feel Elias will take.  Thoughts?

 I don't have any idea. No thoughts on it.

[AceKing]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I found it interesting that in his initial letter to fans, he identified Bundy, Mancini, Givens and Mullins as part of our “future core.”    It would seem a little weird to publicly put Bundy in that group and then trade him, but I don’t think it would stop Elias from doing it.    

I think if Villar plays well enough to have trade value, he’ll be traded.    I’m sure we’ll make some other trades, too.

He is going to fix those guys.  Cashner, Cobb, Davis, Trumbo, and several others he will likely trade for FV.  I would imagine he will trade Bullpen arms also.

[Pheasants]

58 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think you are right.    However, it might depend a little on why they were .500+.    If Cashner, Cobb and Villar are leading the charge, that’s one thing.   But if some of the younger guys are maxing out and ahead of schedule, that’s a slightly different scenario.    I’m not going to put too much thought into it, since the odds of anything like that happening are at least 50-1 IMO.   But it’s pleasant to contemplate.

I tend to agree.  If it looks like a short, 3 year rebuild because the young guys are good, Bundy is in the mix.  If it looks like a 5 year wait, sell him off.

[Beef Supreme]

Elias will definitely trade Villar in July as well as Bleier or Givens if they have any success this season. He'll just about give away Trumbo and Cashner before the end of August, including eating part of their salary.

I am not so sure he would eat a ton of Cobb's salary just to trade him, but if Cobb has a great start, and a team is willing to take on most of the contract, I could see Cobb being traded for little return in the form of players. I could see the Orioles with Cobb and Bundy starting the 2020 season in Baltimore uniforms. I don't think anyone on the 25-man roster is off the table.

Even in the minors, I just don't see that many untouchables beyond Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall. Yusniel Diaz maybe?

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, George Zuverink said:

Don't understand the logic here. We would trade three starters, but not Bundy because "we will need someone to start games."

Cobb, Karns and Cashner are all in their 30's and not part of the O's next playoff team.   Cobb should be traded to get rid of the contract.  Cashner is a free agent.    I think Elias will get as many quality  prospects at the deadline  as he can.

In August  the rotation is probably be Bundy, Hess, Akin, Kremer and one of Means, Ramirez or Rogers.   Hess, Akin and Kremer could all  be part of the future.   Elias has another year to figure out  when and if to trade Bundy.  JMO

[wildbillhiccup]

6 hours ago, wildcard said:

If the O's are out of the Wild Card race there should be a lot of guys traded.  Most project the O's to be out of the race but then there is 1989's Why not? O's.   Some times young guys fool everyone.

But if the race goes as expected I think Cashner, Trumbo, Cobb, Villar,  Escobar,  Givens, Karns and Bleier  all to be available in the right deal.

Not so much Bundy.   The O's will need someone to start games.  Bundy may be traded in the off season or at the 2020 trade deadline. 

That said I would think any of the above mentioned guys could be traded if another team blows them away with an offer.

Do you honestly think there's going to be a market for Cashner, Trumbo, and Karns? The "right" deal for any of them is the first team that calls asking if they're available.

[Moose Milligan]

7 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Do you honestly think there's going to be a market for Cashner, Trumbo, and Karns? The "right" deal for any of them is the first team that calls asking if they're available.

I'd trade Cashner for a turkey sandwich and some new BP balls.