Elias: Sisco looks great on defense

[HowAboutThat]

8 minutes ago, jsbearr said:

 

EDIT:

My formula was double counting a part.  Sorry about that. 

So the difference is about 3 feet below average or 6 feet below someone like Realmuto.  

Your key point remains valid, however. His defense is very bad not just very bad, but even bad for the Orioles.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

Chance Sisco 2.0?

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

Your key point remains valid, however. His defense is very bad not just very bad, but even bad for the Orioles.

Once again below average doesn't exist.  Jesus Montero's defense at Catcher was very bad.

[Hallas]

1 hour ago, jsbearr said:

 

EDIT:

My formula was double counting a part.  Sorry about that. 

So the difference is about 3 feet below average or 6 feet below someone like Realmuto.  

Remember when Matt Wieters had a pop time of 1.86?

(I watched a highlight reel on Youtube and the first 3 CS I saw, I recorded 1.82, 1.89, and 1.84.)

 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Hallas said:

Remember when Matt Wieters had a pop time of 1.86?

(I watched a highlight reel on Youtube and the first 3 CS I saw, I recorded 1.82, 1.89, and 1.84.)

 

That was right before he blew his elbow out right?

[HowAboutThat]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Once again below average doesn't exist.  Jesus Montero's defense at Catcher was very bad.

I’m just going by the detailed information that has been provided in this post. I suppose we could debate the difference between bad-very bad-repellent bad-Armageddon Bad, but his defense can’t control the running game or help the pitchers as well as ANY of the other catchers we have available. One might say his bat is enough to compensate but that has not been the case.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Philip said:

I’m just going by the detailed information that has been provided in this post. I suppose we could debate the difference between bad-very bad-repellent bad-Armageddon Bad, but his defense can’t control the running game or help the pitchers as well as ANY of the other catchers we have available. One might say his bat is enough to compensate but that has not been the case.

From what we saw last year his non-throwing defense wasn't any worse than Susac.

Yes his throwing is poor but it is very debatable how important throwing is in the grand scheme of things.

Nonsense like repellent and Armageddon are just that, nonsense.

[Hallas]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That was right before he blew his elbow out right?

Well before.  He had TJ in 2014.

The season following, his pop time was 1.95.  It's slowed since then.  While it's possible that his arm has gotten worse, I think that his release has gotten slower, and that has accounted for most of his increase.  He used to go from a squat to throwing position faster than literally any catcher I've ever seen.  TJ isn't really associated with a drop in velocity post-injury.

[makoman]

5 minutes ago, Philip said:

I’m just going by the detailed information that has been provided in this post. I suppose we could debate the difference between bad-very bad-repellent bad-Armageddon Bad, but his defense can’t control the running game or help the pitchers as well as ANY of the other catchers we have available. One might say his bat is enough to compensate but that has not been the case.

Once again I’m curious what very bad or even Armageddon bad means, quantitatively. Is 2.10 pop time worth 2 runs a year vs average? With the way steals seem devalued nowadays? Or maybe it’s 40? Big difference. Is Elias just blowing smoke or is Sisco actually looking better, especially at blocking and framing which seem way more important? I have no clue on these things, but for once I believe the people in charge will have a clue, so that’s a nice feeling. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Well before.  He had TJ in 2014.

The season following, his pop time was 1.95.  It's slowed since then.  While it's possible that his arm has gotten worse, I think that his release has gotten slower, and that has accounted for most of his increase.  He used to go from a squat to throwing position faster than literally any catcher I've ever seen.  TJ isn't really associated with a drop in velocity post-injury.

It seemed to me his entire defense pretty much cratered after he came back from TJ.

Maybe it was just age and had nothing to do with the surgery.

[Hallas]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

From what we saw last year his non-throwing defense wasn't any worse than Susac.

Yes his throwing is poor but it is very debatable how important throwing is in the grand scheme of things.

Nonsense like repellent and Armageddon are just that, nonsense.

6 feet is enough to turn a stolen base into a no-contest CS.  Increasing the number of people that can steal a base off you to pretty much include anyone capable of playing MLB defense would have a chilling effect on your run prevention if teams actually ran that much.

Look how much space separates Bolt from 2 and 3.  Bolt was 9.58, 2 and 3 were 9.71 and 9.84.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It seemed to me his entire defense pretty much cratered after he came back from TJ.

Maybe it was just age and had nothing to do with the surgery.

JJ Hardy getting older/hurt, Jones out of his defensive prime. Players like Trumbo and Mancini playing in the outfield.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Hallas said:

6 feet is enough to turn a stolen base into a no-contest CS.  Increasing the number of people that can steal a base off you to pretty much include anyone capable of playing MLB defense would have a chilling effect on your run prevention if teams actually ran that much.

Look how much space separates Bolt from 2 and 3.  Bolt was 9.58, 2 and 3 were 9.71 and 9.84.

And they don't.

Varitek allowed 100 steals on three separate occasions.  Did it really hurt his teams?

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, ChuckS said:

I would wager you are correct.  Also, the ability to scoop throws and make tags.  That literally saves runs.  

Wieters was awesome at that.  

[Hallas]

24 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And they don't.

 Varitek allowed 100 steals on three separate occasions.  Did it really hurt his teams?

Yes, but you have a lot more leeway when your OPS+ is 120.  I'd also argue that teams probably didn't change their approach to extra bases as much as they could have because he was so far below the norm.  I measured 4 youtube videos and got 2.11-2.13 for him.    FWIW Wieters never really touched Varitek with the bat, but had 2 seasons more valuable than Varitek's best by WAR because of the difference in defense.

In general I think that the baseline catcher performance w/r/t throwing out attempted basestealers has gotten to the point where it's usually not worth it.  But if teams actually figure out that 2/3 of their team can steal a base at will on the guy and use that to their advantage, then it's a major problem.  And 100+ steals at an 85% success rate is already a major problem.  Matt Wieters averaged around half that, and accrued significantly more kills.  The difference in defense between someone like Varitek and an average defensive catcher is probably something like a 1 win without any wholesale changes in approach.  I could see that jumping to 1.5 or maybe even 2 wins pretty easily if teams test his noodle arm more aggressively.  The difference between a Varitek and a Matt Wieters is probably closer to 2 wins.