Will Diaz be back soon or not for a year?

[wildcard]

This is probably a key indicator of what Elias thinks of the 2019 Orioles.   The answer to how soon we see Diaz could be driven by the O's starting pitching.

Houston held George Springer at AA/AAA for a year when he was a top prospect in 2013.  He was Baseball America's #37 prospect pre 2013 but in spite of crushing the ball all season he was never called up.  Diaz had experience at AA last season but none at AAA.   Will Elias treat him like Springer or will he promote him sometime this season?  

Its probably no use using Diaz service time in 2019 if Elias believes the team will no compete.   The O's organization may have enough offense to compete in 2019 if key players are promoted.   Their defense has improved with the addition of Martin at SS and an attitude change of the whole team that was much needed.    The key to competing is the pitching and  the most important the starting pitching.  There is depth in the relievers that could make them quite good this season.  But the starters are iffy.

 We have seen in the last week a rounding in to shape of both Alex Cobb and Andrew Cashner.   Cobb has history that says he could be a #2 starter if all things fall into place.  Cashner is back with a pitching coach that helped him to a 3.40 ERA in 2017.   Bundy pitched an effective 4 innings then struggled to get through the 5th in his last outing.  Still he could be rounding into the shape that allowed him to win 13 games in 2017.   Wright, Hess, Rogers, Means are unpredictable in the 4th and 5th spots.  Its how Elias views these starters plus whether he sees Karns improving to an effective starter  that could push Elias to promote Diaz or leave him  in the minors all season.

Diaz's service time issues are minimal.  He has to stay in the minors for 15 days to gain another year of service.  Hays has to stay down 49 days.  Santander 61 days.  If these three are promoted it could change the offense.

One early indicator could be where Diaz in placed in the minors.  He he goes to AA we may not see him in the majors for a year   If he goes to AAA it could be a month or two before he is with the big club.  JMO.

[Can_of_corn]

Elias is not going to copy what they did with the Astros.

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Elias is not going to copy what they did with the Astros.

So do expect to see Diaz soon?

[MurphDogg]

I'm not sure that Springer is a great comp for Diaz, at least in so far as their respective developments entering the 2013 and 2019 season.

Entering 2013, Springer had a .219/.288/.342 line in 22 games at AA in 2012.  Diaz had a full season at AA in 2018 (minus time missed for injury), and 31 games at AA in 2017 where he held his own. Overall his AA line is .297/391/.459 over 128 games.

It would be shocking if Diaz were sent to AA to start this season. Between his success at that level last year and in 2017, he is clearly bound for AAA.

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, MurphDogg said:

I'm not sure that Springer is a great comp for Diaz, at least in so far as their respective developments entering the 2013 and 2019 season.

Entering 2013, Springer had a .219/.288/.342 line in 22 games at AA in 2012.  Diaz had a full season at AA in 2018 (minus time missed for injury), and 31 games at AA in 2017 where he held his own. Overall his AA line is .297/391/.459 over 128 games.

It would be shocking if Diaz were sent to AA to start this season. Between his success at that level last year and in 2017, he is clearly bound for AAA.

I agree about Springer to begin the season but they kept him down all year including no September callup.  The way he was hitting could have merited him to be in the majors much sooner considering his high prospect status.     

When do you expect to see Diaz in the majors?

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So do expect to see Diaz soon?

He isn't on the 40 so not soon, but this season.

[wildcard]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

He isn't on the 40 so not soon, but this season.

Alberto, Wilkerson, Smith being on the 40 man roster should not keep the O's #1 prospect in the minors.  They are easy DFA'd to make room.

[mdbdotcom]

I don't really care how soon any of the prospects is called up, as long as they are ready to play and stay in the major leagues once they arrive. This goes for Diaz, Hays, Santander, Stewart, Mountcastle and Sisco (if he's sent down again).

We have the potential to have a nice little offensive core for a while, so let them develop as needed and then bring them up. The team's future depends a lot on how many of these guys pan out long term, not how soon they get to the show.

[wildbillhiccup]

The eternal optimist in me hopes that we see Hays, Diaz, and Mountcastle by mid-season. The realist in me thinks that we probably won't. 

[ChuckS]

I think the promotions will based more or less on merit, but we probably don't see any of these guys until mid-May at the earliest.  I think all of our position prospects that are being discussed here will see time with the team at some point during the season unless they are injured and I fully expect to see at least one or two in the first half. 

[Moose Milligan]

16 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So do expect to see Diaz soon?

We'll see him when we see him.  

[bpilktree]

I expect the first of the three to be up in late May early June.  I think they give Trumbo and Davis two months to see if they can do anything if not they cut bait with either one of them.  If Trumbo plays decent they may look to trade him in June or by All star game for a little save in money.   Then they can move Mancini full time to DH or 1st once that happens they will bring up whoever is playing the best of the three to play an outfield position.

 

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

We'll see him when we see him.  

Thanks  for your enlightening opinion.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, wildcard said:

Thanks  for your enlightening opinion.

Welcome!

I'll echo @Can_of_corn's view, we're not getting a repeat of what happened in Houston.  If we have an OF spot open and Diaz is raking, I don't see why we wouldn't bring him up.  This year is all about figuring out who can play, and Diaz is a guy we need to see.

[Frobby]

Ll

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He isn't on the 40 so not soon, but this season.

 

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Alberto, Wilkerson, Smith being on the 40 man roster should not keep the O's #1 prospect in the minors.  They are easy DFA'd to make room.

Weren’t you the one saying the other day that Elias is all about preserving assets?     I think the fact that Diaz is not on the 40-man is certainly a reason he won’t be rushed.  The O’s have three guys who are on the 40-man (Hays, Santander, Stewart) who can fill in if the O’s need to bring someone up.    

I think it’s interesting but really speculative to guess whether and when Diaz might get called up.   How is he playing compared to the three guys on the 40-man?    Who would he be replacing on the 25-man roster?    The answers to those questions influence any decisions.     My best guess?     Diaz doesn’t get called up unless he torches AAA and proves he’s better than the others, and maybe not even then.