Ryan McKenna 2019

[Luke-OH]

Ryan McKenna - 22 yo - 104 wRC+ in AA (25 SB, 9 HR, career low BABIP by a solid margin) - CF capable, good chance to be an above average defender there - double plus runner

2018 Drew Ferguson - 26yo - 138wRC+ in AAA (65 games, very high BABIP) - CF capable, but not good there - not a good runner

2017 Victor Reyes - 22yo - 110 wRC+ in AA (18 SB, 4 HR) - CF capable, chance to be an above average defender there - plus speed

2017 Carlos Tocci - 22yo - 113 wRC+ in AA (4 SB, 2 HR), 17 terrible games in AAA - CF capable, chance to be an above average defender there - plus speed underway, but not much of a basestealer

2016 Aneury Tavarez - 24yo - 144 wRC+ in AA (18 SB, 7 HR, very high BABIP) - COF, perhaps could play CF in a pinch but not good there - above average speed

2016 Anthony Santander - 21yo - 137 wRC+ in A+ (10 SB, 20 HR) - considered COF only at the time and not particularly good there - below average speed (he's remade himself as a slimmer, more athletic guy, I'm talking about how he was when selected)

2015 Tyler Goeddel - 22yo - 122 wRC+ in AA (28 SB, 12 HR) - OF convert from 3B, had enough speed to try CF, but wasn't very good anywhere in the OF 

2015 Jake Cave - 22yo - 97 wRC+ in AA (17 SB, 2 HR), 7 good games in AAA - CF, chance to stick there, better in a corner - above average runner

Joey Rickard - 24yo - 157 wRC+ between AA/AAA (20 SB, 2 HR, very high BABIP) - considered an average COF at the time - average to above average runner

Odubel Herrera - 22yo - 124 wRC+ between A+/AA (21 SB, 2 HR, very high BABIP) - 2B by trade, converted to CF after selection with only 2 games there at the time, ended up an above average to plus defender there

Delino DeShields - 22yo - 108 wRC+ in AA (54 SB, 11 HR) - CF, doesn't really have a centerfield arm, but makes up for it with speed - elite basestealer, 80 runner

 

McKenna is really right in the mix with these OFs selected in the last 5 years of Rule 5 Drafts. If you look at 22 year olds who play CF, he slots above Tocci and Cave, below Reyes and DeShields. I don't think he'd be a lock to get selected, just because OFs don't get selected very often. I do think he'd easily be on the short list of OFs teams would target, if not at the top (can't know that until I see who all is unprotected). 

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I think his floor is never having any kind of ML career.  A realistic outlook, stated by Luke, is a 4th OF.  His ceiling is a ML starting CF but it is a long shot.   Two years of not hitting in AA.  I don't think anyone is going to carry him for a year in the hopes that he hits.  Just my opinion.  I think it's just another case of thinking that other teams covet our prospects.  I would not protect him.  BTW, the writeup does not mention his 2019 season where he repeated and showed little progress.  It looks like it was written preseason.  I wonder if the authors' summary would be any different now.

Weird, it's like I've been saying this for years but I guess my opinion doesn't matter any more to you.

Have a nice day...

 

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Ryan McKenna - 22 yo - 104 wRC+ in AA (25 SB, 9 HR, career low BABIP by a solid margin) - CF capable, good chance to be an above average defender there - double plus runner

2018 Drew Ferguson - 26yo - 138wRC+ in AAA (65 games, very high BABIP) - CF capable, but not good there - not a good runner

2017 Victor Reyes - 22yo - 110 wRC+ in AA (18 SB, 4 HR) - CF capable, chance to be an above average defender there - plus speed

2017 Carlos Tocci - 22yo - 113 wRC+ in AA (4 SB, 2 HR), 17 terrible games in AAA - CF capable, chance to be an above average defender there - plus speed underway, but not much of a basestealer

2016 Aneury Tavarez - 24yo - 144 wRC+ in AA (18 SB, 7 HR, very high BABIP) - COF, perhaps could play CF in a pinch but not good there - above average speed

2016 Anthony Santander - 21yo - 137 wRC+ in A+ (10 SB, 20 HR) - considered COF only at the time and not particularly good there - below average speed (he's remade himself as a slimmer, more athletic guy, I'm talking about how he was when selected)

2015 Tyler Goeddel - 22yo - 122 wRC+ in AA (28 SB, 12 HR) - OF convert from 3B, had enough speed to try CF, but wasn't very good anywhere in the OF 

2015 Jake Cave - 22yo - 97 wRC+ in AA (17 SB, 2 HR), 7 good games in AAA - CF, chance to stick there, better in a corner - above average runner

Joey Rickard - 24yo - 157 wRC+ between AA/AAA (20 SB, 2 HR, very high BABIP) - considered an average COF at the time - average to above average runner

Odubel Herrera - 22yo - 124 wRC+ between A+/AA (21 SB, 2 HR, very high BABIP) - 2B by trade, converted to CF after selection with only 2 games there at the time, ended up an above average to plus defender there

Delino DeShields - 22yo - 108 wRC+ in AA (54 SB, 11 HR) - CF, doesn't really have a centerfield arm, but makes up for it with speed - elite basestealer, 80 runner

 

McKenna is really right in the mix with these OFs selected in the last 5 years of Rule 5 Drafts. If you look at 22 year olds who play CF, he slots above Tocci and Cave, below Reyes and DeShields. I don't think he'd be a lock to get selected, just because OFs don't get selected very often. I do think he'd easily be on the short list of OFs teams would target, if not at the top (can't know that until I see who all is unprotected). 

Good work, but I don't see McKenna getting taken and if does, I don't see him sticking. Saying that, I haven't looked at the 40-man close enough to see if I would protect him or not, but since I see him as more of a 4th outfielder at best, I wouldn't be too concerned about losing him. Saying that, I'm definitely protecting him over the replacement level pitchers that currently litter the 40-man roster. 

That might be a good exercise after the prospect list work. I see a lot of turnover on the 40-man roster this offseason.

[LookinUp]

17 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

That might be a good exercise after the prospect list work. I see a lot of turnover on the 40-man roster this offseason.

My guess is that would be a fun, but really tough task. I expect Elias to bring in a bunch of guys most of us have never heard of before. Last year it was Ruiz, Smith, Martin, Nunez and others. I know that happens every year, but I'm guessing it'll be more than usual just given where we still are in the rebuild. 

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

My guess is that would be a fun, but really tough task. I expect Elias to bring in a bunch of guys most of us have never heard of before. Last year it was Ruiz, Smith, Martin, Nunez and others. I know that happens every year, but I'm guessing it'll be more than usual just given where we still are in the rebuild. 

Yeah, we may have to do a "vulnerable" list for the guys are whole vulnerable to being taken off. I imagine that list will be long.

[bluedog]

If the O's don't protect McKenna, I wouldn't be surprised to see him picked up by another club. Every club can use a + Glove ++ Speed late inning outfield defensive replacement on the bench and teams will have an extra bench slot next year, so keeping Rule V picks will be less burdensome that ever before.

[WalkWithElias]

1 hour ago, bluedog said:

If the O's don't protect McKenna, I wouldn't be surprised to see him picked up by another club. Every club can use a + Glove ++ Speed late inning outfield defensive replacement on the bench and teams will have an extra bench slot next year, so keeping Rule V picks will be less burdensome that ever before.

Tend to agree with this. McKenna seems like a Joey Rickard type Rule V candidate. With more teams taking the Orioles-Tigers-Royal approach to gutting the payroll if you can't compete, there could certainly be a team out there willing to stash him. Not saying it's likely. But it wouldn't be surprised if it happened if he's left unprotected. 

[HowAboutThat]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

That might be a good exercise after the prospect list work. I see a lot of turnover on the 40-man roster this offseason.

It might be easier to make a list of the guys who are locks to remain.

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, Philip said:

It might be easier to make a list of the guys who are locks to remain.

It'll probably be shorter!

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, WalkWithElias said:

Tend to agree with this. McKenna seems like a Joey Rickard type Rule V candidate. With more teams taking the Orioles-Tigers-Royal approach to gutting the payroll if you can't compete, there could certainly be a team out there willing to stash him. Not saying it's likely. But it wouldn't be surprised if it happened if he's left unprotected. 

I also agree with it. Elias will assess that risk and the degree to which he even cares if McKenna is taken by another team. I think he'd fit squarely into Tony's vulnerable list. Has real value in the field and on the bases (when he's paying attention), but also very real questions about his hit tool.

Personally, I say you keep him and give one more year for the hit tool to show up. He's valuable enough otherwise to take that gamble unless we're really able to upgrade from outside the org.

[MurphDogg]

To risk losing a player with a starting centerfielder ceiling to protect one of ten replaceable relievers seems foolish. 22 year-old centerfielders with 70 speed and 55 fielding that can hit even a little bit aren't typically available on waivers, the Orioles have multiple players on the 40-man roster whose ceiling is "reliable 7th inning reliever" and those types of players are always churning through the waiver wire. I would rather let one of them go. 

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, WalkWithElias said:

Tend to agree with this. McKenna seems like a Joey Rickard type Rule V candidate. With more teams taking the Orioles-Tigers-Royal approach to gutting the payroll if you can't compete, there could certainly be a team out there willing to stash him. Not saying it's likely. But it wouldn't be surprised if it happened if he's left unprotected. 

I get what you are saying but McKenna and Rickard are kind of on different ends of the Rule 5 candidate spectrum. Rickard was older, not toolsy, regarded as a corner OF defender, and had an extremely strong year in the minors. McKenna is two years younger, more raw power, more bat speed, more glove, more arm, more speed, CF defense, but had a lackluster year in the minors.

[DirtyBird]

Trumbo is coming off the 40 man. Davis, Smith Jr., Wilkerson and Williams could all easily be removed from the 40 man.

Mountcastle and Diaz are the only position players that will definitely be added. Maybe Cumberland gets protected? But I would protect McKenna over any of the guys listed above.

[ScGO's]

58 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Trumbo is coming off the 40 man. Davis, Smith Jr., Wilkerson and Williams could all easily be removed from the 40 man.

Mountcastle and Diaz are the only position players that will definitely be added. Maybe Cumberland gets protected? But I would protect McKenna over any of the guys listed above.

I think Stevie stays as super utility.  There will be a lot of fodder cut from the roster for sure, but we could also free up spaces if we trade Givens, Villar, Mancini, etc.  There should be room for McKenna.  Id rather keep McKenna on the 40 man over Wynns, Mullins, and Ortiz

[DirtyBird]

12 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

I think Stevie stays as super utility.  There will be a lot of fodder cut from the roster for sure, but we could also free up spaces if we trade Givens, Villar, Mancini, etc.  There should be room for McKenna.  Id rather keep McKenna on the 40 man over Wynns, Mullins, and Ortiz

When was the last time Wilkerson played infield? Can he still be considered a super utility guy?

Also, with the roster going to 26, do you really need a jack of all trades, master of none?

Bannon is another guy I could see added by playing his way onto the mlb roster.