Alex Wells 2019

[LookinUp]

My totally unproven theory is that Elias/Sig really focus on changing eye levels to inflate K rates (not just eye levels, but it's an important piece). The problem is that as hitters get better, letter-high fastballs and generally mistakes up in the zone get turned around more and more. That's one way that stuff starts to differentiate these guys, and guys with lesser stuff give up more home runs.

This has always been true, of course. It's just my little theory as to why K rates are so impressive this year for so many guys whose prospect sheet looks more like Mark Buehrle's than Nolan Ryan's. It seems like Lowther's fastball still plays (I believe Luke/Tony mentioned he has a high spin rate). It seems like Wells has to rely on doing it the more traditional way (changing speeds/locating).

 

[Can_of_corn]

I don't think the upper cut swing currently in vogue is a great tool for turning on high fastballs.

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think the upper cut swing currently in vogue is a great tool for turning on high fastballs.

Right, and more people swing like Chris Davis in the minors. 

[Frobby]

Another nice outing for Wells today, 6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K’s.   His ERA stands at 1.61.    

[Punchandjudy]

I get people’s tempered enthusiasm, but at what point does this guy get the prospect respect he deserves? He is young for AA and dominating.  Sure the K’s have never blown you away, but the ERA and WHIP always have been very good to superlative.   I’m not going as far as to say he has TOR ability, but he’s following Means lead to a tee.  Speaking of Means nobody including me thought he had TOR ability but I’m beginning to wonder if it’s possible. So why not Wells too? 

Edited June 10, 2019 by Punchandjudy

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Punchandjudy said:

I get people’s tempered enthusiasm, but at what point does this guy get the prospect respect he deserves? He is young for AA and dominating.  Sure the K’s have never blown you away, but the ERA and WHIP always have been very good to superlative.   I’m not going as far as to say he has TOR ability, but he’s following Means lead to a tee.  Speaking of Means nobody including me thought he had TOR ability but I’m beginning to wonder if it’s possible. So why not Wells too? 

I'll start buying it when he can do it with ML balls.

As for Means, the stuff changed.

[Punchandjudy]

Again when does his production in the minors warrant a little prospect love? 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Punchandjudy said:

Again when does his production in the minors warrant a little prospect love? 

AAA, when he has to use the ML balls.

[Punchandjudy]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

AAA, when he has to use the ML balls.

If he succeeds there, even if he is young, people will discount that saying he is pitching in a pitcher friendly ballpark.

Edited June 10, 2019 by Punchandjudy

[LookinUp]

It doesn’t matter where he’s ranked or what us message board dudes think about him. He will get more love when he moves up and performs. Then he’ll get love when he does that again. Just like Means. If he’s that good, he’ll drag fans into his bandwagon.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Punchandjudy said:

If he succeeds there, even if he is young, people will discount that saying he is pitching in a pitcher friendly ballpark.

Have you been following AAA at all this year?

[Punchandjudy]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Have you been following AAA at all this year?

So again you miss the point and just decide to be argumentative for I guess the sake of being argumentative instead of reading posts and debating the merits of the post.  Well I’ll play along, are you saying that Harbor Park isn’t a notorious pitcher’s park? Are you saying the PCL portion of AAA doesn’t have inflated stats?  Have those things changed? 

I guess if you use non sequiturs to make a point then you win.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Punchandjudy said:

So again you miss the point and just decide to be argumentative for I guess the sake of being argumentative instead of reading posts and debating the merits of the post.  Well I’ll play along, are you saying that Harbor Park isn’t a notorious pitcher’s park? Are you saying the PCL portion of AAA doesn’t have inflated stats?  Have those things changed? 

I guess if you use non sequiturs to make a point then you win.

I just assume folks know basic facts and don't need to be told them.   It is supposed to cut down on the clutter.

AAA is using ML baseballs instead of minor league baseballs this season.  It is causing a huge increase in offense, so much so that Harbor Park would not be considered a pitcher's park compared to the environments he has pitched at in the past.

If he can get results with the ML balls I would start taking his prospect status seriously.

[Punchandjudy]

If I need to explain what a non sequitur is please let me know.  I usually think people know what google is, and should not need to explain it.  In the above “debate,” introducing the ML baseball into the argument is a non sequitur.  It does not change the argument as it applies to everyone equally; but again if you think it makes your point fine, you win.  Except that you don’t, unless you are comparing apples to oranges. 

I like Alex Wells.  I wish he had a higher K rate but I will say his success at a young age relative to his competition warrants another look as to his prospect status as John Means has shown us all.

[52520Andrew]

He is our 21st ranked prospect according to the site and has taken a step forward according to this:

http://www.orioleshangout.com/2019/06/02/pre-draft-orioles-prospect-update/

I'd say he has gotten a little prospect love and likely will continue to if he keeps his production up.