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Mancini Trade Package


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1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Orioles who were the Trey Mancini of their decade:

2010s: Mark Trumbo
2000s: Luke Scott
1990s: Bobby Bonilla
1980s: Larry Sheets
1970s: Don Baylor
1960s: Curt Blefary
1950s: Bob Nieman
1940s: Howie Moss
1930s: George Puccinelli 
1920s: Dick Porter
1910s: Butch Schmidt
1900s: Cy Seymour
1890s: George Van Haltren
1880s: Mike Griffin

Some of the comps aren't great, but you don't always have a decade with a first baseman who sometimes played the outfield poorly and also hit quite well, but not always.

How about Harold Baines?

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16 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think a pretty good (though scary) comp for Mancini is Larry Sheets.   Though 3 full seasons plus a short call-up the year before, he was at 127 OPS+ (Mancini is at 117), 4.5 rWAR (Mancini is at 3.9 now).     Like Mancini, he was a bad outfielder (worse than Mancini, I’d say).    Both reached the majors in their age 24 season. 

Unfortunately, Sheets fell apart in his fourth full season in the majors and was never the same again.   He had an 88 OPS+ and was worth -2.6 rWAR over the remainder of his career.    

Mancini is on track for 145 OPS+. The question with any young player trending up is whether he sustains it or regresses to the mean. If he sustains it (or even close), that would put him on an entirely different level than Sheets.

Interestingly, Sheets peaked at 143 OPS+ before collapsing.

A really, really high end comp would be Edgar Martinez, who put up 74, 133, 138, 164, 100 through age 30.

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9 hours ago, Chavez Ravine said:

I think because we are in an era when teams don’t want to give up anything of real value to plug a hole at positions like that for just a couple months, anybody younger than Trey and with potential to one day be Trey counts as real value, and they are unconvinced that the current version of Trey is gonna last if they keep him. Plus if they are still in a pinch for an outfielder next year they can sign Adam Jones.

A couple months? Mancini is not a FA until 2023. He would not be a rental if traded this year or even next year.

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15 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Mancini is on track for 145 OPS+. The question with any young player trending up is whether he sustains it or regresses to the mean. If he sustains it (or even close), that would put him on an entirely different level than Sheets.

Interestingly, Sheets peaked at 143 OPS+ before collapsing.

A really, really high end comp would be Edgar Martinez, who put up 74, 133, 138, 164, 100 through age 30.

I guess those last two points are really important.

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1 hour ago, interloper said:

These are both just bad comps, I don't know why folks continue to say this. Neither player can play 1B as well, neither could hit the ball to all fields, both were more pure power hitters with lesser ability to be selective and get on base. They just aren't the same type of player as Trey at all.

Let's see... DHs, left fielders, and first basemen; all played at least a little of each.  Power hitters with career slugging marks between 460 and 480.  Listed weights between 215 and 225.  Career highs in walks of 54, 59, and 44 with Trey having worst mark of the three but makes up for that by having a little higher average.  None of them are plus fielders anywhere, although Scott was probably the best outfielder of the three and you could argue about whether Trumbo or Mancini were better first basemen.  Baserunning value for all three through age 27 was within a few runs of zero, and none of them ever stole 10 bases in a season.  None of them were MLB regulars before age 25.  8th, 9th, and 18th round picks.  All had random seasons in mid career with sub-100 OPS+es.

There are a lot more similarities here than differences.

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Yes, and I didn’t mean to suggest that I expect Mancini to flatline like Sheets did.    I was just pointing out that to this point in their careers, they were pretty similar.    

It's worth nothing/watching that Sheets had his big year in 1987, the year of the obviously juiced ball.  Mancini is having his biggest year so far in what's looking like the biggest HR season in MLB history, by far.

In 1988 MLB returned the ball to a pile of mush and Sheets was never the same.  I wonder what, if anything, MLB will do to the ball in 2020?

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3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I disagree that Trumbo is an inferior first baseman to Mancini.  It isn't as if Mancini is a good first baseman and when he has a chance to play there regularly is isn't as if Trumbo is a bad first baseman.

As for same type of player at all?  They are bat first 1B/CO/DH types with no added value on the basepaths.  Career OPS+ of the three players?  117/117/108.  I wonder how exact a match you are requiring? 

Just completely different hitters. I get that they play the same positions. If I'm a team looking for an impact bat for my playoff push, I don't know that there's a better one available than Mancini, who can basically do everything with the bat. He hits the ball hard no matter what he does with it. He will take a walk but he doesn't need to because he gets himself on base almost every game right now. He's tough, he stays healthy. Folks are severely overrating defensive value with regards to trade value. Teams are going to salivate over his controllable power+average bat in July. Will the Orioles trade him? Probably not. But to say there's no trade value is basically ridiculous. Just my opinion. 

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25 minutes ago, interloper said:

Just completely different hitters. I get that they play the same positions. If I'm a team looking for an impact bat for my playoff push, I don't know that there's a better one available than Mancini, who can basically do everything with the bat. He hits the ball hard no matter what he does with it. He will take a walk but he doesn't need to because he gets himself on base almost every game right now. He's tough, he stays healthy. Folks are severely overrating defensive value with regards to trade value. Teams are going to salivate over his controllable power+average bat in July. Will the Orioles trade him? Probably not. But to say there's no trade value is basically ridiculous. Just my opinion. 

Is he a tough guy that stays healthy or did a collision with the wall last year result in his poor year?

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1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Is he a tough guy that stays healthy or did a collision with the wall last year result in his poor year?

Not quite done actually. 

There's plenty of literature out there on the changes Trey made to his hitting approach mechanically, so I don't think his struggles related to his injury last year in full.

Secondly, as usual you picked the lowest hanging fruit of my post instead of the meat of my point which was that Trey's hitting profile is very different from many of his "comps", which is largely why I think he will absolutely have trade value when you add that to his controllability and plus character. 

If you want to debate, at least debate the main point. Don't just exploit the weakest chink in the armor and act like the rest of my point therefore doesn't apply. It's getting old man. You do this so much. 

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3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It's worth nothing/watching that Sheets had his big year in 1987, the year of the obviously juiced ball.  Mancini is having his biggest year so far in what's looking like the biggest HR season in MLB history, by far.

In 1988 MLB returned the ball to a pile of mush and Sheets was never the same.  I wonder what, if anything, MLB will do to the ball in 2020?

While I don't disagree with what you are saying, wouldn't there be an equivalent argument that his 145 OPS+ is actually more impressive in a high offense environment as it is already normalized for league average and park factors? Obviously he could disproportionately benefit from it, just as he could disproportionately be impacted if they overcorrect the other way, but I don't think it's as simple as writing off his big year as a product of a juiced ball.

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14 minutes ago, interloper said:

Not quite done actually. 

There's plenty of literature out there on the changes Trey made to his hitting approach mechanically, so I don't think his struggles related to his injury last year in full.

Secondly, as usual you picked the lowest hanging fruit of my post instead of the meat of my point which was that Trey's hitting profile is very different from many of his "comps", which is largely why I think he will absolutely have trade value when you add that to his controllability and plus character. 

If you want to debate, at least debate the main point. Don't just exploit the weakest chink in the armor and act like the rest of my point therefore doesn't apply. It's getting old man. You do this so much. 

When you ignore Drungo's post in it's entirety it shows me you are not interested in honest debate.

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20 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

While I don't disagree with what you are saying, wouldn't there be an equivalent argument that his 145 OPS+ is actually more impressive in a high offense environment as it is already normalized for league average and park factors? Obviously he could disproportionately benefit from it, just as he could disproportionately be impacted if they overcorrect the other way, but I don't think it's as simple as writing off his big year as a product of a juiced ball.

I don't know if it's a product of the juiced ball, but there are players who disproportionately benefit (or are hurt) by changes to the playing conditions.  It might be a coincidence.  Sometimes people have career years that happen to fall in favorable conditions.  

Larry Sheets had by far his best year in the juiced ball year, but I doubt the ball was the entire difference between his .921 OPS in '87 and his .645 the next year.  It was probably a combination of a career year, the ball, health, and who knows what.

But I don't think it's hurting Mancini that he's hitting a super bounce ball this year.

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6 hours ago, interloper said:

These are both just bad comps, I don't know why folks continue to say this. Neither player can play 1B as well, neither could hit the ball to all fields, both were more pure power hitters with lesser ability to be selective and get on base. They just aren't the same type of player as Trey at all.

I’ll partially agree and partially disagree.    Yes, Trey is more of an all fields hitter than Trumbo or Scott.   I’m not sure why you say he’s a more selective hitter than Scott, who carried a higher OBP than Mancini and walked at a higher rate.  As to who played 1B the best, it’s hard to say, because none of them really played 1B that much.   Trumbo has started 9 games there as an Oriole, Scott started 37, Mancini has started 96.   Not a ton to go on there.

But overall, I think they are reasonable comps, even if not exactly the same type of hitter.    They all had some value.    Will Mancini turn out to be the best of the three?    Maybe, but it’s too soon to know.    

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