Mancini Trade Package

[BohKnowsBmore]

On 12/13/2012 at 2:54 PM, mrbraswel3 said:

I would absolutely call the Angels to see what it would take to land Trumbo. My offer would start with Arrieta, Hoes, and Bridwell/Hobgood. That is likely not going to very far so, Tillman, Hoes/Avery, Bridwell, Dan Klein, and Strop would be the names I would throw out next in a sensible combination.

I think Trumbo is okay defensively at first (for the record I think Morse is better defensively at that position), but his bat is really special. I know he had a major swoon in the second half, but I think if you look at him in the respect that he is not as good as his first half indicated but much better than his second half, he should be a huge monster bat with a pretty good OBP for the next few years at minimum.

 

On 12/13/2012 at 2:57 PM, MurphDogg said:

Trumbo actually has 4 years of control. I would be shocked if the Angels moved him.

 

On 12/13/2012 at 3:37 PM, Enjoy Terror said:

Gausman gets Trumbo. Schoop does not.

I don't think Trumbo is much more than a glorified Chris Davis. It's not a trade I'd make.

 

On 12/13/2012 at 4:35 PM, wildcard said:

Trumbo will not be traded. Morales will be. Morales is a one year rental. He will definitely go FA because Boras is his agent.

 

On 12/13/2012 at 5:57 PM, SteveO said:

Trumbo would be a decent add. I think that part of the difficulty the O's have run into in terms of making a trade for a bat is that every teams knows they have Bundy and Machado and is thus asking for one of them in most deals. The O's are rightfully resistant to that idea. The next tier of Oriole prospects/players they could or would be willing to trade just does not stack up to what other organizations may have to offer. Trumbo again is a guy who is not worth moving Bundy or Machado for but without including one of those guys, I just do not see the O's having the pieces to outbid other teams with better mid level/low end top prospects.

I get not wanting to spend 125 million on Hamilton. That said I also find myself frustrated as I see a team that with a few strategic additions could take the next step IMO. Its not so much that the O's have taken a step back so much as it seems to me that they have kinda treaded water at best. In MLB thats essentially the same as taking a step back when the other teams competing for limited playoff spots have done things to improve. I dunno maybe Reimold will stay healthy and go wild hitting 30 HR and turn himself into this years Chris Davis (guy with potential who puts it together) and DD will look like a genius again. Somehow though in baseball karma has a way of equalizing things out. 2011 was a horrible year with bad luck. 2012 was a wonderful year and yes we were fortunate at times if we are being honest. As things stand now, if the O's do not add one bat and a SP, IMO they will be a competitive team but not one that will repeat the success in getting to the post season. Say 80-85 wins area.

 

On 12/13/2012 at 9:00 PM, SteveO said:

Totally agree. Really have no interest in Morales unless the price is so cheap its impossible to pass up. One year rentals are not the answer. Would much prefer to see what Davis can bring to the table than go with Morales.

Trumbo is a different scenario. Being under club control until 2017/2018 (I think thats right) he is an attractive option to a cost conscious team. Unfortunately I doubt the Angels even discuss moving him unless Machado or Bundy were involved and at that point as far as I am concerned....its thanks but no thanks. I kinda doubt that the Angels would move him for one or two of the cavalry + ... My guess is they will hold on to him until someone desperate enough to overpay comes along. He is young and cheap so no rush to move him.

A few opinions re: trumbo’s trade value back in 2012. 

 

[BohKnowsBmore]

Just now, BohKnowsBmore said:

 

 

 

 

 

A few opinions re: trumbo’s trade value back in 2012. 

 

And another:

 

[MurphDogg]

19 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

 

 

 

 

 

A few opinions re: trumbo’s trade value back in 2012. 

 

Trumbo was eventually traded a year later, after the 2013 season (a slightly worse year than he had in 2012) for Tyler Skaggs and Hector Santiago. Skaggs had been a top-20 overall prospect the year before but struggled in 2013 while Santiago had a career 124 ERA+ and was coming off a 2.4 rWAR season in 2012, his second full season.

 

[BohKnowsBmore]

3 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Trumbo was eventually traded a year later, after the 2013 season (a slightly worse year than he had in 2012) for Tyler Skaggs and Hector Santiago. Skaggs had been a top-20 overall prospect the year before but struggled in 2013 while Santiago had a career 124 ERA+ and was coming off a 2.4 rWAR season in 2012, his second full season.

 

Yep. I think it’s somewhat instructive when people say Mancini is another Trumbo as evidence that he has no value. A different time in baseball analysis, yes. But still worth noting. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

33 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Yep. I think it’s somewhat instructive when people say Mancini is another Trumbo as evidence that he has no value. A different time in baseball analysis, yes. But still worth noting. 

If Trey keeps it up he will finish the year with a 145 OPS+ and Trumbo's best year was a 124 OPS+ in 2012. Trey doesn't have a long track record yet, but I see a hitter who is level above Trumbo. Again Trey could crash and burn in the second half, but I don't think he will.  

[Enjoy Terror]

My opinion hasn’t changed. Davis, Trumbo, Mancini... all cut from the same cloth. All stick, no field, age hits them hard when their one or two tools falls off. Mancini is fun for right now and perhaps the hit tool will give him more life than a free swinger like Davis, but Mancini isn’t the kind of player I build around. I’m not giving him a particularly long career, and it’s mostly because he can’t find a job as a DH anywhere.

[atomic]

7 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't like including Cespedes.  While he did debut at 26 he defected in 2011 and was playing MLB in April 2012.  I think it was more circumstance than ability that delayed his debut.

Al Bumbry served a couple years in the military including a tour in Vietnam.

[Hallas]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think you’re taking the term “comp” too literally.   They’re not the exact same player.   But at this point in his career, Trumbo had a 114 OPS+ and had been worth 7.2 rWAR through the end of his age 27 season.    That’s pretty similar even if Trumbo was always a lower OBP guy than Mancini.   And interestingly for purposes of this conversation, Trumbo was traded that offseason, with the Angels receiving Hector Santiago (a very solid starting pitcher) and Tyler Skaggs (who had been a highly regarded pitching prospect) in return.   The Angels also threw minor league pitcher AJ Scheugel into the trade. So, I’d say it’s pretty clear that Trumbo did have significant trade value when he was at the same stage of his career as Mancini.   

I don't believe that Trumbo would attract a similar package today if his 28-year-old self were on the trade market today.  Teams seem to be moving away from trading for all-bat 1B types.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

3 minutes ago, Hallas said:

I don't believe that Trumbo would attract a similar package today if his 28-year-old self were on the trade market today.  Teams seem to be moving away from trading for all-bat 1B types.

One dimensional bats like Trumbo then yes. Trumbo's major asset has been home runs throughout his career. None of his other skills stand out. Seems like a hard worker, but his fall off after 2016 is no surprise. Players like him don't age well especially when they start getting injured more frequently. 

[Beef Supreme]

On 6/24/2019 at 10:26 AM, Philip said:

This is not a surprise. One-dimensional guys don’t usually have trade value.

They do when the dimension is with the bat.

[FanSince88]

If we're on the topic of comps, and want to be on the very optimistic side, how about....Rafael Palmeiro?

Palmeiro had a strong hit and power tool.  He tried to play outfield early in his career and wasn't good defensively, then moved to first and was just okay.  Mancini's defensive metrics at first base only are fairly similar (in a small sample size!) to Raffy's a the same age.  

Way too early to declare Mancini another Palmeiro, but perhaps Palmeiro represents the ceiling of Manicini's value?  It will all depend of course on how Mancini's bat ages.  If it ages gracefully, and he's willing and able to adjust as the league adjusts to him, he's certainly got a great shot at providing similar career-wide value.  That's a big "if" right now, but the potential is probably there.  

[wildcard]

12 minutes ago, FanSince88 said:

If we're on the topic of comps, and want to be on the very optimistic side, how about....Rafael Palmeiro?

Palmeiro had a strong hit and power tool.  He tried to play outfield early in his career and wasn't good defensively, then moved to first and was just okay.  Mancini's defensive metrics at first base only are fairly similar (in a small sample size!) to Raffy's a the same age.  

Way too early to declare Mancini another Palmeiro, but perhaps Palmeiro represents the ceiling of Manicini's value?  It will all depend of course on how Mancini's bat ages.  If it ages gracefully, and he's willing and able to adjust as the league adjusts to him, he's certainly got a great shot at providing similar career-wide value.  That's a big "if" right now, but the potential is probably there.  

I laughed when I saw the comparison for Raffy and Mancini.   That is because when I think of Raffy its the mature player that I think of.   But when I looked at Raffy's early years, you are right.   Their paths are not that dissimilar in the early years.   We will have to wait to see how Mancini matures.  I certainly hope Mancini career ends better than Raffy's did.

[BohKnowsBmore]

10 hours ago, Enjoy Terror said:

My opinion hasn’t changed. Davis, Trumbo, Mancini... all cut from the same cloth. All stick, no field, age hits them hard when their one or two tools falls off. Mancini is fun for right now and perhaps the hit tool will give him more life than a free swinger like Davis, but Mancini isn’t the kind of player I build around. I’m not giving him a particularly long career, and it’s mostly because he can’t find a job as a DH anywhere.

I was actually more interested in the first part of your statement, that it would take Gausman to get it done and Schoop wouldn't be enough.

[BohKnowsBmore]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I laughed when I saw the comparison for Raffy and Mancini.   That is because when I think of Raffy its the mature player that I think of.   But when I looked at Raffy's early years, you are right.   Their paths are not that dissimilar in the early years.   We will have to wait to see how Mancini matures.  I certainly hope Mancini career ends better than Raffy's did.

Raffy didn't hit many HR in his early years.  Didn't clear 20 HR until his 5th real season in the bigs (hit 26 in 1991 at age 26).  Mancini  hit 24 in his rookie year, albeit his age-25 season.  Raffy did have pretty prolific doubles numbers early on, though.

[BohKnowsBmore]

11 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

If Trey keeps it up he will finish the year with a 145 OPS+ and Trumbo's best year was a 124 OPS+ in 2012. Trey doesn't have a long track record yet, but I see a hitter who is level above Trumbo. Again Trey could crash and burn in the second half, but I don't think he will.  

My point was more that even if he were nothing more than another Trumbo (not arguing that he is in any way), this very board seemed to think Trumbo had quite a bit of value back when he was at about the same point of his career as Mancini is now.