Washington Post Examines Effects of Increased Pitch Velocity on Baseball

[Frobby]

Fantastic article here: https://www.google.com/amp/s/beta.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/05/21/velocity-is-strangling-baseball-its-grip-keeps-tightening/%3foutputType=amp

Drungo has made some of these points in comic book fashion over the years, but this is a very thorough look at the subject.   

Average size of pitchers:

1893: 5-11, 178

1920: 6-0, 178

1960: 6-1, 190

2000: 6-2, 197

2019: 6-3, 215

The article points out that not only can these bigger athletes throw harder, their hand and the point of release is several inches closer to home plate.  

Average slash line in 2018:

vs. 92 mph: .283/.364/.475

vs. 95 mph: .259/.342/.421

vs. 98 mph: .223/.310/.329

vs. 101 mph: .198/.257/.214

The average fastball has gone from 89 mph in 2002 to 92.9 this season.  

Lots of information about the consequences: more pitcher injuries, more pitching changes, longer time between pitches, longer games, more strikeouts, etc.

Probably not much we didn’t know in this article, but it ties it all together nicely.   

[Can_of_corn]

Nice bit of info for the is velocity the most important debate.

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Nice bit of info for the is velocity the most important debate.

That is partly why I posted it here instead of in the MLB forum.  

I see the velocity vs. command debate as something of a false choice, or at least, something that requires much more definition.   For example, from the numbers I posted above, the advantage a pitcher gains between 92 and 95 is nowhere near as big as the advantage he gains between 95 and 98 or between 98 and 101.    So it depends on the range we are talking about.   Also, velocity is quantifiable, while command isn’t so much.     So you can’t really do a statistical analysis.   

Command can vary depending on type of pitch.   One pitcher may have good fastball command but really can’t throw his curve for a strike.    Another might have just average fastball command but also has command of a couple of offspeed pitches.   So command really isn’t a one-dimensional thing.

[Just Regular]

Haven't had time to read the story yet, but in this vein, one of my worries in the next couple years is that a "worst in my lifetime" beaning injury is going to happen.  Driveline-type regimens are enabling more and more homo sapiens to reach the upper 90's and clubs are rotating them in and out like crazy - cumulatively they feel far less skilled to me than the cohort when McGregor and Flanagan threw 45% of a team's seasonal innings.

[Sessh]

I brought this up several times before and VaTech echoed it which is the effect that bad mechanics has on this situation. He referred to it as "stretching the rubber band" where the rubber band is the UCL until it breaks. Bad mechanics give you increased velocity in exchange for increased injury risk and until this is addressed, I doubt the issue will be going away. You can work up to lifting heavy weights in training regimens, but doing so with bad form guarantees injury eventually if not immediately. I don't see pitching to be any different. Verlander throws hard and his mechanics are great which is why he doesn't have arm injuries, but most pitchers in the game today have timing issues which causes stretching of the rubber band and a slingshot effect that increases pitch velocity, but rubber bands wear down or break eventually and the shoulder takes a lot of abuse as well. Teenagers are having more and more TJ surgeries as well. Velocity is definitely "injuring" the game all the way down to high school.

Personally, I think baseball was better overall decades ago and has been slowly going in the wrong direction ever since. With the looming rule changes, it seems as if it may be about to fall off a cliff and I don't think it will do anything to address the injury problem. Proper pitching mechanics are better for health, but not so good for velocity. Guys like Verlander and Nolan Ryan among others show that you can throw real hard with good mechanics and avoid arm injuries, but it's easier to just do it wrong. Meh.. this article didn't seem to mention this at all and until the focus gets shifted onto the root of the problem, I don't imagine it will get much better anytime soon.

[AZRon]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

That is partly why I posted it here instead of in the MLB forum.  

I see the velocity vs. command debate as something of a false choice, or at least, something that requires much more definition.   For example, from the numbers I posted above, the advantage a pitcher gains between 92 and 95 is nowhere near as big as the advantage he gains between 95 and 98 or between 98 and 101.    So it depends on the range we are talking about.   Also, velocity is quantifiable, while command isn’t so much.     So you can’t really do a statistical analysis.   

Command can vary depending on type of pitch.   One pitcher may have good fastball command but really can’t throw his curve for a strike.    Another might have just average fastball command but also has command of a couple of offspeed pitches.   So command really isn’t a one-dimensional thing.

Perhaps, when the "command" gun is invented or if/when the feature is added to Trackman/FlightScope/PitchGrader/RevFire by Rapsodo, etc., statistical analysis will demonstrate conclusively that overall pitch command is more important than velocity.

For now, it's sort of like belief systems where some "think" that if we don't/can't measure it isn't true and some "conclude" it's only true if it's in the current baseball bible.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, AZRon said:

Perhaps, when the "command" gun is invented or if/when the feature is added to Trackman/FlightScope/
PitchGrader/RevFire by Rapsodo, etc., statistical analysis will demonstrate conclusively that overall pitch command is more important than velocity.

For now, it's sort of like belief systems where some "think" that if we don't/can't measure it isn't true and some "conclude" it's only true if it's in the current baseball bible.

I don’t think it’s possible to make blanket conclusions like “velocity is more important than command” or vice versa.   We’ve all seen failed pitchers who were in the top 5% on velocity but had no idea where the ball was going.   And, we’ve seen plenty of low velocity, very good command guys who did well in the minors and then got blasted when major league hitters saw them.   It’s a sliding scale, where the units of the scale may be narrower or wider at certain points on the scale.   And, there are factors other than velocity and command that also play a role.   So, to me it’s kind of a fruitless argument.   

[El Gordo]

If I had to choose between 100 mph FB and Maddox like command I'd choose Maddox.

[AZRon]

48 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think it’s possible to make blanket conclusions like “velocity is more important than command” or vice versa.   We’ve all seen failed pitchers who were in the top 5% on velocity but had no idea where the ball was going.   And, we’ve seen plenty of low velocity, very good command guys who did well in the minors and then got blasted when major league hitters saw them.   It’s a sliding scale, where the units of the scale may be narrower or wider at certain points on the scale.   And, there are factors other than velocity and command that also play a role.   So, to me it’s kind of a fruitless argument.   

Of course, this issue is the "all else being equal" Gordian Knot when all else is never "equal"; but, that's a problem for the statistical elite.

However, an "intelligent discussion" with no conclusive "winner" can enlighten all participants and spectators.

I appreciate you contributions.

[drjohnnyfeva]

I love these kinds of discussions.

I happened to be watching a YouTube video the other day of Dave "La Lob" LaRoche after seeing another video about pitch speed and exit velocity.  It was about how the Eephus pitch works.  Very interesting.  Can't find it at the moment, but when I do, I'll post it.

It had a power hitter and and a for average hitter both hitting off a tee.  What they were trying to demonstrate was that as the pitch speed decreases the ability of hitters to be able to generate the necessary power to overtake the lack of momentum of a 90 mph fastball becomes increasingly difficult.  *The power hitter knocked one or two out, but the smaller guy couldn't get it out.*

Frobby says it's a fruitless argument... perhaps.  But I would still love to see a guy that could change speed and who has excellent command in the 60's to 80's master some of these power batters.  What we're seeing now is power pitching.  There has to be a yin to that yang...  RA Dickey and Whetland were both guys mentioned in the video as having a slow enough pitch to make it extremely difficult for even the most powerful batters to overcome with HR's.

Dr. Neil DeGrasse was even questioned about the minimum pitch speed for a ball to be able to cross the plate.  30 mph!!!  lol!  At a 45 degree slope.  lmao.  I'd love to see that!

Here's the video of LaRoche.  I'll try to find the other.  It was Gorman Thomas batting.

*edit*

[Hallas]

The logical follow up is whether we need to resolve this by changing the rules.  Increase the distance from the mound to home plate, decrease the height of the mound, shrink the strike zone?

[drjohnnyfeva]

6 minutes ago, Hallas said:

The logical follow up is whether we need to resolve this by changing the rules.  Increase the distance from the mound to home plate, decrease the height of the mound, shrink the strike zone?

...the other followup would be about different bodies, different deliveries, so why is pitching coached to be a specific, most effective delivery?

[AnythingO's]

1 hour ago, drjohnnyfeva said:

...the other followup would be about different bodies, different deliveries, so why is pitching coached to be a specific, most effective delivery?

So what ever happened to Rick Peterson's (sp) biomechanics lab? He seened to fade.away post Toronto when DD lost favor. It would seem to be right down analytics alley to have him run tests on every minor league pitcher likely to be on the 40 man.

[Cumberbundy]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

 

The average fastball has gone from 89 mph in 2002 to 92.9 this season.  

 

Does that make Bundy old school? 

[Uli2001]

Randy Johnson was a freak in his time. These days people would hardly give a double take. It's routine now.