Franchise Expectations Over the Next Four Years

[atomic]

The trades last season not getting us much in return has set us back for sure.  Next years pick might be a bust for all we know.  A lot of guys we have high hopes for will fail.  I think it is a very long road with the current strategy.  The Astros had Springer, Altuve, and Keuchel there when their new management arrived.  So they had a nice core of guys to build on.

[Moose Milligan]

For me, still too early to tell.  I'd have thought one of Diaz or Hays would be up by now.  And I know they're not because of Elias, injuries have played a part.

Which is kind of my point.  So many variables can happen between now and whatever arbitrary date we're discussing.

I think we'll have a better idea of things about this time next year.  Trumbo will be gone, hopefully Davis will be gone, too.  Mountcastle should be up....hopefully he'll be have promoted some time this year so we won't just be getting a first look at him.  Should have a better idea of the outfielders.  We'll have an idea of how good AR can be, he'll have had time in the minors in 2019, ST in 2020.  Pitchers will have advanced, hopefully.

This time next year will be really telling.  I think we all got our hopes up a little bit too much for this year from a promotion perspective.  Still a lot of season to go, though.

[DrungoHazewood]

13 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

If I am Elias, I am targeting bullpan arms as the biggest need.

Perhaps I haven't adjusted to the new reality, but I thought you just collected as many quality pitchers as possible and the ones that can't get though the lineup twice become relievers.  Kind of like 1B/DH who can hit a little, there's never a true shortage of relief pitchers.  Sure, the 2019 Orioles' pen is awful, but so the rest of the team and kind of on purpose.

[DrungoHazewood]

9 hours ago, bpilktree said:

There is way to many questions outside even the organization to make a logical guess. Do they realign do the change the schedules to make them more fair.  Do they actually have a salary cap or can teams like Boston spend 200 million a year more then the Rays. Does the international signing rules change and we have an international draft.  Then we have ownership questions, does someone else buy the team and want to speed things up or go a different route do the angelos boys take over Aand allow them to cut Davis.  

I really think we see some major changes in the CBA and until then any time predictions are a huge guess just in baseball in general let alone the Orioles.  

Schedule changes - no.

Salary cap - no.

International draft - probably, because that helps limit salaries and the union doesn't care about you if you're not currently in the union.

In baseball I always assume they won't make proactive steps to fix obvious problems.  The only semi-major changes will be short-term strategies to try to increase revenues or decrease costs (i.e. expand playoffs, cap draft expenditures).

[DrungoHazewood]

As for the OP, I think the Orioles are back to having a respectable, .500-ish on-field record by 2022.

[webbrick2010]

15 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

McKenna and Hays should be on the list of guys who should be here sooner rather than later. Same with Harvey.

Add Mason McCoy to the list of guys that we don't know what we have yet but could make an impact within

We will get some guys back from Villar at minimum and possibly Mancini (if there are good offers) and Givens (if he can pitch decently).

If I am Elias, I am targeting bullpan arms as the biggest need.

Have you been following the minors at all. Harvey will never contribute at the ML level

[TINSTAAPP]

17 hours ago, tntoriole said:

Houston lost 100 the year before Luhnow arrived...they lost 105 and 107 and 92 and then made the wildcard....so....we lost over a 100 last year, 105 this year, 105 next year, 92 losses in 2021 and then wildcard or better in 2022. 

 

The Astros did have some building blocks in Altuve, Springer, and Keuchel before Luhnow's arrival. Do the Orioles have three future 20+ WAR players that are 24 years old or under currently in their organization  like the Astros did?

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Have you been following the minors at all. Harvey will never contribute at the ML level

“Never?”    That remains to be seen.   He’s certainly not even remotely ready to contribute to the major league team.    But he’s looking healthy and still has a premium fastball.   Hopefully he will stay healthy and make progress in the remainder of the season.   He’s had several good games, he’s just been completely inconsistent from one start to the next.   

[theocean]

38 minutes ago, TINSTAAPP said:

The Astros did have some building blocks in Altuve, Springer, and Keuchel before Luhnow's arrival. Do the Orioles have three future 20+ WAR players that are 24 years old or under currently in their organization  like the Astros did?

And those were some pretty big building blocks. The O's don't have anything close to that. Orioles prospects usually get pretty overrated here - I mean, people were going crazy over Cedric Mullins and Joey Rickard in the offseason. McKenna had one good year in the minors and people are thinking he could be an all-star. 

Hays, Diaz, Mountcastle, and crew might become decent major leagues - but they certainly aren't locks to do so. I'd advise against counting chickens before they hatch.

[DrungoHazewood]

56 minutes ago, Frobby said:

“Never?”    That remains to be seen.   He’s certainly not even remotely ready to contribute to the major league team.    But he’s looking healthy and still has a premium fastball.   Hopefully he will stay healthy and make progress in the remainder of the season.   He’s had several good games, he’s just been completely inconsistent from one start to the next.   

Much internet shouting could be avoided if people replaced unwarranted certainty with maybes and probablys.

Harvey is having a strange career.  He's been a pro for going on seven years and has thrown 226 innings, or less than Wayne Garland threw in 1976.  Coming into '19 he'd allowed eight homers, ever.  This year he's thrown 50 innings and allowed 14.  That's end stage Ken Dixon. 

But with pitchers it's like Joaquin Andujar's favorite word in English, youneverknow.

[Redskins Rick]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

“Never?”    That remains to be seen.   He’s certainly not even remotely ready to contribute to the major league team.    But he’s looking healthy and still has a premium fastball.   Hopefully he will stay healthy and make progress in the remainder of the season.   He’s had several good games, he’s just been completely inconsistent from one start to the next.   

Reminds me a bit of EdRod, while in the minors, and having trouble stringing together good games.

[Redskins Rick]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Much internet shouting could be avoided if people replaced unwarranted certainty with maybes and probablys.

Harvey is having a strange career.  He's been a pro for going on seven years and has thrown 226 innings, or less than Wayne Garland threw in 1976.  Coming into '19 he'd allowed eight homers, ever.  This year he's thrown 50 innings and allowed 14.  That's end stage Ken Dixon. 

But with pitchers it's like Joaquin Andujar's favorite word in English, youneverknow.

Hunter was also a high school kid draftee, and didnt have the college ball experience to grow from either.

[DrungoHazewood]

11 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Hunter was also a high school kid draftee, and didnt have the college ball experience to grow from either.

If he'd gone to college he could have gotten hurt there and saved us all the first round pick expectations.

[LookinUp]

This year will remain dreadful, and is likely to get worse before it gets better. Top 2 pick.

Next year won't be as bad, but won't be good. I say top 5 pick again.

2021 will be fun. I'm not sure how many games we'll win, but at some point several guys that look like awesome prospects now (our top 3, once AR signs) will get a look. I say that's our 75-80 win year.

2022 is the year to really hope, I'd guess.

[Redskins Rick]

8 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

If he'd gone to college he could have gotten hurt there and saved us all the first round pick expectations.

Maybe.

I believe it was yourself, one time, when we was talking about players, injuries and predicting the future, something along the line, just because they got hurt for us at XXX date, means they would have for somebody else at  that same time frame.

So, he could have thrown college ball, got drafted by the Orioles and still suffered a TJ injury.