What's with the Yusniel regression?

[LookinUp]

12 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Problem is Diaz only has an .821 OPS in 59 AA games in 2019, so its not like he's dominating, other than this recent hot stretch. There's no rush to promote him with those numbers. 

Not that .821 is bad, but I think Diaz's numbers this year will still fluctuate depending on your start point. He obviously had a bad start coming back from injuries. As another poster pointed out, if you focus on his last 32 games, the OPS is much more impressive.

Either way, he's starting to sustain very good (or better) performance. There's no reason to draw final conclusions now, but his star has risen in my eyes for the time being. Hopefully he sustains something like a .900 for the rest of the year. If so, he'll definitely be high on prospect lists again.

[MurphDogg]

30 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Problem is Diaz only has an .821 OPS in 59 AA games in 2019, so its not like he's dominating, other than this recent hot stretch. There's no rush to promote him with those numbers. 

I don't think you are properly accounting for how much of a pitcher's league the Eastern League is. His .821 OPS is 15th in the league and he is only 22. There are no 22 year-olds ahead of him and only four 23 year-olds and two 24 year-olds.

He has an .841 OPS in 187(!) games at the AA level. He is ready for a promotion.

[jamalshw]

18 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

I don't think you are properly accounting for how much of a pitcher's league the Eastern League is. His .821 OPS is 15th in the league and he is only 22. There are no 22 year-olds ahead of him and only four 23 year-olds and two 24 year-olds.

He has an .841 OPS in 187(!) games at the AA level. He is ready for a promotion.

The age factor is worth noting for evaluation purposes of how he's doing and how he looks as a prospect, but has no baring on the argument to be promoted or not. The 15th in the league ranking is noteworthy and a good argument for a promotion. He's been one of the better hitters in the league. That would seemingly warrant a promotion, but it's not like he's standing out as a man amongst boys and demanding that promotion. He's playing well and putting up well above average numbers for the league, but he's not dominating it either. I would like to see him in Triple-A, but can certainly understand keeping him in Double-A, particularly considering the team is winning and competing for a championship. Having exposure and a part in a title--even at the minor league level--cannot be a bad thing. I'm not sure I fully believe in the idea of needing to "learn how to win," but I do think there's something to be gained by being in a winning environment while developing.

[MurphDogg]

2 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

The age factor is worth noting for evaluation purposes of how he's doing and how he looks as a prospect, but has no baring on the argument to be promoted or not. The 15th in the league ranking is noteworthy and a good argument for a promotion. He's been one of the better hitters in the league. That would seemingly warrant a promotion, but it's not like he's standing out as a man amongst boys and demanding that promotion. He's playing well and putting up well above average numbers for the league, but he's not dominating it either. I would like to see him in Triple-A, but can certainly understand keeping him in Double-A, particularly considering the team is winning and competing for a championship. Having exposure and a part in a title--even at the minor league level--cannot be a bad thing. I'm not sure I fully believe in the idea of needing to "learn how to win," but I do think there's something to be gained by being in a winning environment while developing.

He is 7th in OPS among players that could possibly be considered prospects and he has played more games (187!!!) at AA than any of them.  If players had to dominate to get promoted only a few would get promoted every year.

[jamalshw]

Just now, MurphDogg said:

He is 7th in OPS among players that could possibly be considered prospects and he has played more games (187!!!) at AA than any of them.  If players had to dominate to get promoted only a few would get promoted every year.

I'm not sure I adequately communicated my point. My point is not that he shouldn't be promoted until he dominates. My points were: (i) age is mostly irrelevant to me in the promotion debate and (ii) he probably should be promoted soon and I'd like to see it, but I don't view it as egregious that he's not given all the circumstances.

[TINSTAAPP]

2 hours ago, jabba72 said:

Problem is Diaz only has an .821 OPS in 59 AA games in 2019, so its not like he's dominating, other than this recent hot stretch. There's no rush to promote him with those numbers. 

Diaz has a overall .284/.374/.467 line in almost 800 PAs at AA. He has a decent walk to strikeout ratio striking out about 1.5 times for every walk. The guy has more than proven himself at that level. Also, people were saying the same things about not promoting Baumann because he didn't have great numbers at Frederick and we've all seen that he's been able to handle AA ball just fine.

[jabba72]

19 minutes ago, TINSTAAPP said:

Diaz has a overall .284/.374/.467 line in almost 800 PAs at AA. He has a decent walk to strikeout ratio striking out about 1.5 times for every walk. The guy has more than proven himself at that level. Also, people were saying the same things about not promoting Baumann because he didn't have great numbers at Frederick and we've all seen that he's been able to handle AA ball just fine.

Baumann turns 24 in September so theres probably some urgency to see what he can do at the higher levels. So far he's done well, but there has to be a reason he was just average in A+ at 23 years old. Diaz will be spending all of next year at Norfolk unless he struggles the rest of the year and has to repeat AA. So a promotion w/one month left I dont think is necessary. 

[jabba72]

2 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

I don't think you are properly accounting for how much of a pitcher's league the Eastern League is. His .821 OPS is 15th in the league and he is only 22. There are no 22 year-olds ahead of him and only four 23 year-olds and two 24 year-olds.

He has an .841 OPS in 187(!) games at the AA level. He is ready for a promotion.

I dont see a reason to be aggressive even if he is the best 22 year old in AA. He'll likely start next season in AAA unless he struggles over this final month. 

[atomic]

23 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

I dont see a reason to be aggressive even if he is the best 22 year old in AA. He'll likely start next season in AAA unless he struggles over this final month. 

You discourage the player if you don't promote them when they should be.  If you were in 9th grade would you like it if the teachers made you repeat 9th grade even though you mastered it because the teachers decided no reason to rush anyone. 

[jabba72]

1 minute ago, atomic said:

You discourage the player if you don't promote them when they should be.  If you were in 9th grade would you like it if the teachers made you repeat 9th grade even though you mastered it because the teachers decided no reason to rush anyone. 

He hasnt mastered the Eastern League. 821 OPS in only 59 games played this year. I think if Diaz can finish his last month strong the chances are high he'll never repeat AA again.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

He hasnt mastered the Eastern League. 821 OPS in only 59 games played this year. I think if Diaz can finish his last month strong the chances are high he'll never repeat AA again.

What is the cutoff for mastery?

[jabba72]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

What is the cutoff for mastery?

I dont know but his numbers aren't screaming mastered to me. He really just only started to get hot over the past month. I would like to see him build on his very short season, instead of being aggressive and moving him up. Norfolk has Hays, Mountcastle, Stewart and Williams all playing OF right now anyway. These guys are all going to have a serious battle to get a promotion to Baltimore, except maybe Hays, who should have a spot open for him at CF.

[orioles22]

I said earlier about Hays that I like to see players at an all-star level for their league to move up. I think Diaz is clearly at that level. If he had played a full season, his power numbers would be something like 17 homers and 75 RBI at this point, plus everyone says he has a major league arm. I think that month in AAA could get him to Baltimore quicker.

[Can_of_corn]

29 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

I dont know but his numbers aren't screaming mastered to me. He really just only started to get hot over the past month. I would like to see him build on his very short season, instead of being aggressive and moving him up. Norfolk has Hays, Mountcastle, Stewart and Williams all playing OF right now anyway. These guys are all going to have a serious battle to get a promotion to Baltimore, except maybe Hays, who should have a spot open for him at CF.

So it is based on your personal floating definition?  Got it.

[jabba72]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So it is based on your personal floating definition?  Got it.

Right. I admit its a novice opinion. I look at his numbers and dont think a promotion is needed.