Jump to content

I really want to keep Villar (Update: Traded to Marlins for LHS Easton Lucas)


AceKing

Recommended Posts

11 hours ago, weams said:

But never 7. Right. And there is the rub. The Orioles or anyone the Orioles trade him to will have to pay him close to seven million through arbitration.  So he'll be a non tender. 

Weams, I’m usually with you 98% of the time. This is that 2%.  

Villar isn’t going to get $7 million in arb. His $4.825 salary could go as high as doubled, $9.65 million. Still at that price, it’s not a bad 1 year deal. 

The whole no team wanted him at the trade deadline doesn’t matter come offseason time. 20+ teams will think they have a shot at the playoffs versus the 8-10 around the deadline. This trade deadline season was one of the weirdest in recent history. There wasn’t a real need for middle infielders. Teams chose to not go overboard with stocking their teams for playoff runs, and to hold onto pretty much all their prospects. 

I’m fine with bringing Villar back just on the fact alone that he helps everyone else slot into a comfortable spot in the lineup. His speed and being on base, has to be helping Mancini a bit. It’s a trickle down effect. 

Plus we have zero options at SS next year. Watch a guy like Jose Isglesias bag a 3/27 deal.  Villar would be in that ballpark. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Weams, I’m usually with you 98% of the time. This is that 2%.  

Villar isn’t going to get $7 million in arb. His $4.825 salary could go as high as doubled, $9.65 million. Still at that price, it’s not a bad 1 year deal. 

The whole no team wanted him at the trade deadline doesn’t matter come offseason time. 20+ teams will think they have a shot at the playoffs versus the 8-10 around the deadline. This trade deadline season was one of the weirdest in recent history. There wasn’t a real need for middle infielders. Teams chose to not go overboard with stocking their teams for playoff runs, and to hold onto pretty much all their prospects. 

I’m fine with bringing Villar back just on the fact alone that he helps everyone else slot into a comfortable spot in the lineup. His speed and being on base, has to be helping Mancini a bit. It’s a trickle down effect. 

Plus we have zero options at SS next year. Watch a guy like Jose Isglesias bag a 3/27 deal.  Villar would be in that ballpark. 

Very good post. I'm not sure I am convinced, but I'm moved let's say. You have facts and equivalencies to defend your thoughts. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, Frobby said:

Why do you say this?    He’s having a good year and easily could start on many playoff teams.    Among qualifying 2B, he’s 10th in wOBA, 9th in wRC+, 7th in fWAR.     

I truly don’t understand the lack of respect for Villar by some posters. He’s not an all star, but he’s a solid player having a good season.  

He is careless and sloppy. It is impossible to fix careless and sloppy(I think there’s also been knocks about him hustling, but I discount those.) But you cannot fix careless. The Astros got rid of him when they got good, and the Brewers got rid of him when they got good. He is a player for bad teams and each good team that wants a shortstop or second baseman is going to get a better one. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Philip said:

He is careless and sloppy. It is impossible to fix careless and sloppy(I think there’s also been knocks about him hustling, but I discount those.) But you cannot fix careless. The Astros got rid of him when they got good, and the Brewers got rid of him when they got good. He is a player for bad teams and each good team that wants a shortstop or second baseman is going to get a better one. 

I don’t think he’s careless. He’s aggressive, but he does have that “cool” attitude that whenever a guy makes a mistake, people will point that out. SS is kind of a stretch for him. We’re a last place team, they’ve asked him to be aggressive on the bases. 

People say the homer/strikeout stuff is boring. Then we get a guy that puts pressure on defense and he’s careless. Can’t have it both ways. The station to station stuff is lame, and really for good teams only. Why stand at a base when Davis, Martin, etc..., are coming up behind you?

I’ll take the 35+ steals he’s on pace for. 

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I don’t think he’s careless. He’s aggressive, but he does have that “cool” attitude that whenever a guy makes a mistake, people will point that out. SS is kind of a stretch for him. We’re a last place team, they’ve asked him to be aggressive on the bases. 

People say the homer/strikeout stuff is boring. Then we get a guy that puts pressure on defense and he’s careless. Can’t have it both ways. The station to station stuff is lame, and really for good teams only. Why stand at a base when Davis, Martin, etc..., are coming up behind you?

I’ll take the 35+ steals he’s on pace for. 

Villar is careless. His baserunning mistakes are not the result of being aggressive, because being aggressive involves picking your spots carefully and not just running whenever you feel like it. Overall he’s been successful, But you can never rest with him because you never know when the next tootblan is coming.

I think he has the highest WAR on the team, despite a -5.0 dWAR.  But I think that’s more because the rest of the team is so awful.

I don’t mind if the team decides to keep him, and they might very well, but my feeling is that they won’t. Cheaper second basemen will be available.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, Sessh said:

I think it should also be pointed out that Villar seems to have cleaned up his game with regard to making mistakes on the bases. Maybe I missed some bad plays, but it's been awhile since he's made big mistakes on the bases. His throwing accuracy may be his worst area defensively, but he's certainly athletic enough.

His reputation for making mistakes on the bases is greatly overstated.    The fact is, despite a few mistakes here and there, he’s a plus baserunner.  BB-ref has him at +5 baserunning runs, BP has him at +4.5, 7th best in all MLB.  https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=2879557

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

His reputation for making mistakes on the bases is greatly overstated.    The fact is, despite a few mistakes here and there, he’s a plus baserunner.  BB-ref has him at +5 baserunning runs, BP has him at +4.5, 7th best in all MLB.  https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=2879557

Fans tend to value baserunners who're never thrown out.  Baserunners who're never thrown out are probably so conservative that they're costing the team runs.  Same thing applies to third base coaches; fans invariably think the break-even-point is never getting thrown out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Philip said:

He is careless and sloppy. It is impossible to fix careless and sloppy(I think there’s also been knocks about him hustling, but I discount those.) But you cannot fix careless. The Astros got rid of him when they got good, and the Brewers got rid of him when they got good. He is a player for bad teams and each good team that wants a shortstop or second baseman is going to get a better one. 

The Astros got rid of him when they got better options (Altuve, Correa, and Bregman). The Brewers got rid of him when they got (what they thought were) better options (Kiura, Moustakas, Schoop). He should have value to a team that does not have better options.

He is up to 2.5 WAR now (fWAR has him 2.8), well ahead of Mancini. He should end up around 3 WAR. That is building off 1.3 WAR in 209 AB's for the O's last year. That is a very solid player.

As far as the "careless and sloppy" rap, I really don't get where this is coming from. I feel like I must be watching a different player. I see a guy who brings the speed game, plays hard, and always has a positive attitude despite playing on a terrible team. I have never seen him with his head down. With 7 CS, he has an 80% success rate, above the break-even point. Yes, he is prone to errors and is more of a SS than a 2B, and his OBP is lower than you would want for his profile. Still a good player.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Aristotelian said:

The Astros got rid of him when they got better options (Altuve, Correa, and Bregman). The Brewers got rid of him when they got (what they thought were) better options (Kiura, Moustakas, Schoop). He should have value to a team that does not have better options.

He is up to 2.5 WAR now (fWAR has him 2.8), well ahead of Mancini. He should end up around 3 WAR. That is building off 1.3 WAR in 209 AB's for the O's last year. That is a very solid player.

As far as the "careless and sloppy" rap, I really don't get where this is coming from. I feel like I must be watching a different player. I see a guy who brings the speed game, plays hard, and always has a positive attitude despite playing on a terrible team. I have never seen him with his head down. With 7 CS, he has an 80% success rate, above the break-even point. Yes, he is prone to errors and is more of a SS than a 2B, and his OBP is lower than you would want for his profile. Still a good player.

The Brewers were actively shopping him.  I think it is fair to say that they wanted him gone.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

The Astros got rid of him when they got better options (Altuve, Correa, and Bregman). The Brewers got rid of him when they got (what they thought were) better options (Kiura, Moustakas, Schoop). He should have value to a team that does not have better options.

He is up to 2.5 WAR now (fWAR has him 2.8), well ahead of Mancini. He should end up around 3 WAR. That is building off 1.3 WAR in 209 AB's for the O's last year. That is a very solid player.

As far as the "careless and sloppy" rap, I really don't get where this is coming from. I feel like I must be watching a different player. I see a guy who brings the speed game, plays hard, and always has a positive attitude despite playing on a terrible team. I have never seen him with his head down. With 7 CS, he has an 80% success rate, above the break-even point. Yes, he is prone to errors and is more of a SS than a 2B, and his OBP is lower than you would want for his profile. Still a good player.

It probably speaks volumes that the Brewers viewed Schoop as a better option. It's not like he lit the world on fire last year. I also feel like the Brewer's were trying to trade Villar for like three years straight so it would predate even Moustakas. I'm not sure what he did, but he most definitely pissed in someone important's cheerios when he was in Milwaukee. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

The Astros got rid of him when they got better options (Altuve, Correa, and Bregman). The Brewers got rid of him when they got (what they thought were) better options (Kiura, Moustakas, Schoop). He should have value to a team that does not have better options.

He is up to 2.5 WAR now (fWAR has him 2.8), well ahead of Mancini. He should end up around 3 WAR. That is building off 1.3 WAR in 209 AB's for the O's last year. That is a very solid player.

As far as the "careless and sloppy" rap, I really don't get where this is coming from. I feel like I must be watching a different player. I see a guy who brings the speed game, plays hard, and always has a positive attitude despite playing on a terrible team. I have never seen him with his head down. With 7 CS, he has an 80% success rate, above the break-even point. Yes, he is prone to errors and is more of a SS than a 2B, and his OBP is lower than you would want for his profile. Still a good player.

I think some of Villard's mistakes on the bases have come from his aggressiveness, and some have been just dumb baseball (killing a rally by running into Devers as he attempted to field a ground ball, for instance).

Villard is a good player, one of the most productive on the team, and at 28 (this year) he should be in his prime. If the Orioles don't tender or sign him, it's a virtual certainty that he'll be replaced by someone not as productive (though maybe better defensively) at a cost somewhere around the MLB minimum salary of $550,000 plus the annual increase. So the question is whether it's worth an additional $3 million, or $4 million, or whatever it would take to sign Villard for 2020, to get his added value at bat and on the bases.

The Elias Plan, as I understand it, says that the answer is no. Unless a player looks like a guy who will be part of the next contending team -- whenever that is now targeted to be -- the goal is to cut payroll. Since it doesn't look like Villard will be around that long and there are doubts as to whether he'd be a desirable guy to have on a team built to contend, there's no reason to add payroll in order to get his help in winning a few games over the next year or two. Maybe he'd be worth it at $1.5 million or so, but signing him that cheap seems awfully unlikely. That's what the Plan (again, as I understand it) calls for.

You can question, as I have on this board, whether it makes sense for the Orioles to spend a little more money on the 2020 MLB payroll in an attempt to put a team on the field next season that wins a few more games than the 2018 and 2019 embarrassments. Because Villar offers some excitement and would bring a little continuity to a high-turnover team, I think Villar at $3-$5 million would probably be a good place to spend that money, though I'd want to see what else is out there for IF help. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So Villar has gotten his AVG up to .274 with a .350 OBP. That is really starting to get respectable for a guy hitting mostly lead off. He has and 893 OPS and 49/133 XBH/hits. And 27/35 steals.

Plus he should finish with his most HR (19) , and statistically his career best season.

Id be happy to see us keep him. I’ve mentioned a 2-3 year deal at 5 million or so.

mayb 5 mil, 5.5 million, and 6 million. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.



  • Posts

    • Yeah the amenities are pretty outdated at the yard and they seem to do nothing year over year to improve them. The touchscreens have been banged on to death to the point they barely function, so you can't accurately fill out your order at the kiosks, and they don't have a way for the people behind the counter to ring you up at many of the food places. The sound is low to non-existent in certain sections of the club level, like around 218. Seems like there should be speakers that reach there but they might have been damaged by rain, etc. and they are too lazy to fix them. If you go to a game that's even slightly busy, you will wait forever to get into the bathroom, and the sink will be an absolute mess with no soap or paper towels. It's even worse on the club level where they have one sink that's right by the door. Nearby businesses don't care, either. The Hilton parking garage reeks of decay, pot and human waste. They don't turn on the air circulation fans, even if cars are waiting for an hour and a half to exit from P3, filling up the air with carbon monoxide. They only let you enter the stadium with one 20 oz bottle of water. It's so expensive to buy a drink or water in the stadium, but with all the salty food, 20 oz of water isn't enough, especially on a hot day. Vegetarian food options are poor to none, other than things like chips, fries, hot pretzels and the occasional pizza. Vida Taco is better, but at an inconvenient location for many seats. The doors on the club level are not accessible. They're anti-accessible. Big, heavy doors you have to go through to get to/from the escalators, and big, heavy doors to get to your seats, none of them automatic (or even with the option to be automatic with a button press). Makes it hard to carry food out to your seats even if not handicapped. The furniture in the lounges on the club level seem designed to allow as few people as possible to sit down. Not great when we have so many rain delays during the season. Should put more, smaller chairs in and allow more of the club level ticket holders to have a seat while waiting for thunderstorms to pass. They keep a lot of the entrance/exit gates closed except for playoff/sellout games, which means people have to slowly "mooooo" all the way down Eutaw St to get to parking. They are too cheap to staff all the gates, so they make people exit by the warehouse, even though it would be a lot more convenient for many fans to open all the gates. Taking Light Rail would be super convenient, except that if there's at least 20k fans in attendance, it's common to have to wait 90-120 minutes to be able to board a non-full train heading toward Glen Burnie. A few trains might come by, but they are already full, or fill up fast when folks walk up to the Convention Center stop to pre-empt the folks trying to board at Camden Station. None of the garages in the area are set up to require pre-payment on entry (reservation, or give them your card / digital payment at the entrance till). If they were, emptying out the garage would be very quick, as they wouldn't need to ticket anyone on the way out: if you can't get in without paying, you can always just leave without having to stop and scan your phone or put a ticket in the machine. They shut down the Sports Legends Museum at Camden Station in 2015 because the Maryland Stadium Authority was too greedy. That place was a fun distraction if you were in the area when a game wasn't about to start, like if you show up super early on Opening Day or a playoff day. Superbook's restaurant on Eutaw is a huge downgrade from Dempsey's in terms of menu and service quality. Dempsey's used to be well-staffed, you could reserve a table online, and they had all kinds of great selection for every diet. Superbook seems like just another bar serving the same swill that the rest of the park serves, with extremely minimal and low-quality food. For that matter, most of the food at the stadium is very low quality these days. A lot of things we used to love are made to a lower standard now if they are served at all. These are gripes about the stadium and the area that haven't changed my entire adult life. Going to an O's game requires one to tolerate many small inconveniences and several major inconveniences, any number of which could easily be fixed by the relevant authorities if they gave a damn about the people who pay to come see the team play. You would think a mid-market team would be able to afford to invest in the fan experience. You would think the city and partnering organizations like garages, the Stadium Authority and MTA would at least try to do their part to make the experience enjoyable and free of kinks. You would think they would put some thought into handling the "growing pains" of the fanbase due to recent renewed interest after the dark years. Instead, all we get is the same indifference and the same annoyances year in and year out. The whole area is overdue for a revamp. Not sure if $600 mil will get it done, but at least it's a start. Hopefully they can start to patch up some of the many holes in the fan experience. If you're not going to invest in Burnes, at least make it so paying customers have an easier, more enjoyable time getting to/from the stadium and having some food while we're there.
    • Elias has only been in rebuild mode with the O's so there's not much to speculate on there.  Houston, where he spent his formative years, doesn't seem to like to be on the hook for more than a couple of big long-term contracts at any given time.  I can see that as being Elias' choice as well, albeit with a lower overall cost - Houston runs a big payroll.  But it's all guesswork.  I really don't know. If Elias takes the 2025 payroll to $150 million it will creep up to $200 million or so by 2028 just from keeping the core together.  That's where I start to wonder about sustainability due to market size, economic forces, etc., etc., etc... If it were up to me, I would add a couple of free agents this offseason even if the contracts were longer than ideal and be conservative about extensions elsewhere until the prospects establish themselves a little better.  I think there's a competitive opportunity that the team is already into that's worth exploiting. I think ownership is very happy to have Elias on board and they're not inclined to force him to do anything.  I also think Rubenstein's demonstrated business prowess is great enough to assume that he has had plenty enough time to come to a mutual understanding with Elias as to goals.
    • We need a RH O’hearn…in addition to Westburg. At least 3 batters that will push up the pitch count and cause damage in the top 5 of the lineup.
    • Boy,  that Jackson Merrill is a good young player that is playing his best ball down the season stretch and in the playoffs.   He's only 21.  I guess some young guys are able to play up to the pressure.   Who could have guessed that?
    • I’m aware.   You are arguing something im Not.
    • What agreement? The agreement you are talking about happened as a result of the move.  The MASN agreement would not have existed if Angelos had gone to court to block the move.
    • I’m saying the Os had an agreement with MLB and that should have held up.  Been pretty clear about that. 
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...