I really want to keep Villar (Update: Traded to Marlins for LHS Easton Lucas)

[Redskins Rick]

On 8/20/2019 at 9:20 PM, Roll Tide said:

Hardy seemed to be around forever. But had health issues before he got here. 

Roberts gave himself a concussion on purpose by hitting himself in the head with a bat.

I don’t believe either guy was 31 in the final year of a contract 

Hardy was very healthy here at the start, 4 solid years with WARS over 3, and 1 into the 4s.

He bounced back in 2016 with a 2.1, which was subpar for him, but still 2.1 isn't replacement level.

 

[AceKing]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I haven’t studied the matter, but I’m not sure I believe the calculation in that article.   I’d think that if Fangraphs itself believed it, they’d change the valuations they publish for position players.    But they haven’t done so.

PS - Note that the article was using data from 2006 to 2017.   Per Fangraphs, the value of 1 WAR in 2006 was $4.8 mm.   So $5.7 mm for position players over that entire 12 year period is more plausible.    That doesn’t tell you what the market rate is today.   

It’s likely not a very simple calculation using real-time data, so it must be pieced together using years prior when all the variables are known.

 

I would imagine that each team can better individually keep track of this within the organization, so it migh5 be something in Sig’s “Matrix”, or somehow come into play during negotiations and payrolls, but maybe not...

[weams]

7 hours ago, GuidoSarducci said:

Can't edit my post anymore, but I was wrong about the cost per WAR teams were willing to pay.  Its actually more like $5.7 million for position players.  https://community.fangraphs.com/on-war-its-linearity-and-efficient-free-agent-contracts/

So if Villar is valued at 2.5 WAR, his FA price would be 5.7 * 2.5 roughly $14 million.

Why not?

[weams]

I think we can all agree that for the next season, WAR has no monetary value. Other than excess trade value. 

[weams]

3 hours ago, LA2 said:

 

2. Where did you got the fascinating idea that B-Rob intentionally gave himself a concussion?

He hit himself on the head and slid headfirst into first base. One was intentional, the other contractually careless. 

[Redskins Rick]

7 minutes ago, weams said:

He hit himself on the head and slid headfirst into first base. One was intentional, the other contractually careless. 

I dont think it was intentional, yes, he did hit himself, he claimed it was pure frustration on his part, and an irrational moment.

[weams]

10 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

I dont think it was intentional, yes, he did hit himself, he claimed it was pure frustration on his part, and an irrational moment.

I think this is semantics. Regarding Brian striking himself. It's not an accident to do it. He had concussions before. He also was in the Mitchell report. So we need to address him as he is. A flawed fan favorite who took some of his best years from the fans unintentionally, but by his own hand. 

[Redskins Rick]

6 minutes ago, weams said:

I think this is semantics. Regarding Brian striking himself. It's not an accident to do it. He had concussions before. He also was in the Mitchell report. So we need to address him as he is. A flawed fan favorite who took some of his best years from the fans unintentionally, but by his own hand. 

You make a valid point.

 

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, weams said:

I think this is semantics. Regarding Brian striking himself. It's not an accident to do it. He had concussions before. He also was in the Mitchell report. So we need to address him as he is. A flawed fan favorite who took some of his best years from the fans unintentionally, but by his own hand. 

I don’t think Roberts had any known concussions before hitting himself on the head.    And I do think it wasn’t the first time he’d hit his bat on his helmet after a frustrating at bat.     I had seen him do it before, and he wasn’t the only one.   I’m sure neither he nor anyone else who has done this did it while thinking they were risking a concussion.    It’s very unfortunate but I don’t see it as the result of a character flaw or some knowingly reckless act.     Honestly, I’m pretty sure I saw it live and thought nothing of it at the time.    

[GuidoSarducci]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I haven’t studied the matter, but I’m not sure I believe the calculation in that article.   I’d think that if Fangraphs itself believed it, they’d change the valuations they publish for position players.    But they haven’t done so.

 PS - Note that the article was using data from 2006 to 2017.   Per Fangraphs, the value of 1 WAR in 2006 was $4.8 mm.   So $5.7 mm for position players over that entire 12 year period is more plausible.    That doesn’t tell you what the market rate is today.   

After looking at other 2B, $5.7m/WAR does seem rather high at least for players < 4 WAR.  I haven't looked at SS.

But consider Johnathan Schoop got $7.5m on a one year deal and Brian Dozier at $9m.  

Villar is going to get alot more than $5m on the open market.  I would be surprised if someone offered him 3/30.

 

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, GuidoSarducci said:

After looking at other 2B, $5.7m/WAR does seem rather high at least for players < 4 WAR.  I haven't looked at SS.

But consider Johnathan Schoop got $7.5m on a one year deal and Brian Dozier at $9m.  

Villar is going to get alot more than $5m on the open market.  I would be surprised if someone offered him 3/30.

 

I do think that $/WAR varies a bit by position, and generally 2B get a little less than players at some other positions do.    

[weams]

34 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think Roberts had any known concussions before hitting himself on the head.    And I do think it wasn’t the first time he’d hit his bat on his helmet after a frustrating at bat.     I had seen him do it before, and he wasn’t the only one.   I’m sure neither he nor anyone else who has done this did it while thinking they were risking a concussion.    It’s very unfortunate but I don’t see it as the result of a character flaw or some knowingly reckless act.     Honestly, I’m pretty sure I saw it live and thought nothing of it at the time.    

Upon review I think you are right 

[GuidoSarducci]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I do think that $/WAR varies a bit by position, and generally 2B get a little less than players at some other positions do.    

Its difficult to find comparables for Villar for 2B who were signed as FAs.   Closest I can find is probably DJ Lemathieu who was signed for 2/24 this offseason at age 30.    His four year average was 3.5 WAR prior to signing. 

That $/WAR calculation might come from high end players like Cano and Altuve.  Obviously teams are willing to pay a premium for a 5-6+ WAR player.  Cano's contract for instance is $24m AAV and should have been valued at roughly 6 WAR.  So $4m/WAR.   Altuve is around that number as well.   But its obvious it doesn't scale down tot 1-2 WAR players, in other words you don't seem teams paying $4m for a 1 WAR player or $8m for 2 WAR.  I'm not sure what it would mean for a 2-3 WAR player like Villar.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, GuidoSarducci said:

Its difficult to find comparables for Villar for 2B who were signed as FAs.   Closest I can find is probably DJ Lemathieu who was signed for 2/24 this offseason at age 30.    His four year average was 3.5 WAR prior to signing. 

That $/WAR calculation might come from high end players like Cano and Altuve.  Obviously teams are willing to pay a premium for a 5-6+ WAR player.  Cano's contract for instance is $24m AAV and should have been valued at roughly 6 WAR.  So $4m/WAR.   Altuve is around that number as well.   But its obvious it doesn't scale down tot 1-2 WAR players, in other words you don't seem teams paying $4m for a 1 WAR player or $8m for 2 WAR.  I'm not sure what it would mean for a 2-3 WAR player like Villar.

Most of the research, including the article that someone quoted above, suggests that the relationship between dollars and WAR is quite linear, i.e, the premium players do not average more $/WAR than the lower tier players.   

[wildbillhiccup]

2 minutes ago, GuidoSarducci said:

Its difficult to find comparables for Villar for 2B who were signed as FAs.   Closest I can find is probably DJ Lemathieu who was signed for 2/24 this offseason at age 30.    His four year average was 3.5 WAR prior to signing. 

That $/WAR calculation might come from high end players like Cano and Altuve.  Obviously teams are willing to pay a premium for a 5-6+ WAR player.  Cano's contract for instance is $24m AAV and should have been valued at roughly 6 WAR.  So $4m/WAR.   Altuve is around that number as well.   But its obvious it doesn't scale down tot 1-2 WAR players, in other words you don't seem teams paying $4m for a 1 WAR player or $8m for 2 WAR.  I'm not sure what it would mean for a 2-3 WAR player like Villar.

 

Not the best comparison. DJ was/is an incredible defender. Villar is below average. Also, it's hard not to look at this season as a bit of an outlier because Villar has largely been a 1.0ish WAR guy for the bulk of his career. To me, this feels a lot like Andrew Cashner going into free agency coming off his 3.40 era 2017 season. The only team that believed in his ability to duplicate that success was the Orioles. I'm curious to see if the league buys into Villar's season. My gut tells me they won't.