I really want to keep Villar (Update: Traded to Marlins for LHS Easton Lucas)

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Earlier in the thread, I quoted Dave Szymborski as saying the relationship between salary and WAR is no longer as linear as it used to be, and that teams aren’t paying $8 mm for that first WAR.   I infer that it gets more linear after that.     But I have some observations, not necessarily related to Villar, though some are:

1.   Teams do not value oWAR and dWAR equally.     Teams pay more for oWAR.     I think that’s because defensive measures are less reliable and less predictive of future results.    

2.   Teams don’t pay for past performance, they pay for estimated future performance.    If they believed Villar would be a four  WAR player in the future, he’d obviously have a significant trade market.

3.    What teams pay for WAR is position-dependent.    Show me a 2.5 WAR pitcher and a 2.5 WAR second baseman, and the pitcher will make more money every time.   Which tells you that teams don’t think WAR accurately measures what it purports to measure.    

I think it would be pretty easy to create a valuation model that takes these factors into account, though Lord knows I have no intention of doing it.   

Excellent post. 

#2 is something that everyone here should read over and over again. 

#1 is true and publicly available defensive metrics are likely inferior to a team's own defensive metrics that use statcast data, this is something that the new Hawkeye system will improve upon, at least internally, not sure how much of the data will be public.

 

[thezeroes]

14 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

They knew whether they wanted to pay him in July for 2020.

On July 01, 2019 Villar had a slash line of .254/.325/.416/.741 through 83 games.  This was not All-Star caliber or 4.0 WAR.  From July 01 to end of year  he slashed .294/.353/.489/.842.  Now per your assessment, they may very well have thought that Villar was worth tendering a contract to in July as his performance would have been closer to $5.5 Million.  His second half boosted the value hence the $10.4 suggested deal that would happen in Arbitration.  His sub-performance the first half may be very well what the Orioles get for the entire 2020 campaign and is not worth tendering a contract north of $10 Million.IMO

[weams]

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2019/11/more-on-villars-placement-on-outright-waivers.html

[Roll Tide]

14 minutes ago, weams said:

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2019/11/more-on-villars-placement-on-outright-waivers.html

Roch is a big part of the dysfunctional Orioles!

[REDMAN]

On 11/28/2019 at 8:20 AM, Luke-OH said:

No team is valuing him on his 2019 season alone. They are projecting 2020, so that means aging curves, regression from his career best season and his less successful seasons baked in. The one projection that's out for 2020 has him at 1.8 WAR.  Let's see if he's traded and what the return is before getting too convinced about what this says about the value of WAR. 

Of course they are projecting but this is Villar walk year, he will be trying to put up better numbers.

[Roll Tide]

On 11/28/2019 at 8:20 AM, Luke-OH said:

No team is valuing him on his 2019 season alone. They are projecting 2020, so that means aging curves, regression from his career best season and his less successful seasons baked in. The one projection that's out for 2020 has him at 1.8 WAR.  Let's see if he's traded and what the return is before getting too convinced about what this says about the value of WAR. 

I'd love to see the justification for the 1.8 projection. The fact is the guy has doubled that projection twice in the last 4 years and beat it by nearly 1 win in the 3rd. Villar is in his prime not in his middle 30s and declining.

 

[Luke-OH]

52 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I'd love to see the justification for the 1.8 projection. The fact is the guy has doubled that projection twice in the last 4 years and beat it by nearly 1 win in the 3rd. Villar is in his prime not in his middle 30s and declining.

 

I don’t have access to the algorithm used to make the projections obviously, but I can give you the basics. BTW, I noted in another post that the projection likely misses the boost he apparently gets when playing regularly.

The projection sees him getting 60+ less PA (which is a good bet IMO)

It sees his ISO halfway between his 2019 and his career average. So simple regression. 

It sees him drop off from the huge career best baserunning WAR of over 1 to .3. 

In 2019 he played almost half his innings at SS, which I’m sure you know has a higher positional value than 2B in WAR calculations. So I think the projection system projected either less time at SS which makes his bat less valuable or that he’d be closer to the -16 UVR/150 defender at SS for his career rather than the -3 UVR/150 there in 2019. 

That pretty much explains all of it. He’s projected to hit for a similar BABIP and similar K and BB rates.

 

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

I don’t have access to the algorithm used to make the projections obviously, but I can give you the basics. BTW, I noted in another post that the projection likely misses the boost he apparently gets when playing regularly.

The projection sees him getting 60+ less PA (which is a good bet IMO)

It sees his ISO halfway between his 2019 and his career average. So simple regression. 

It sees him drop off from the huge career best baserunning WAR of over 1 to .3. 

In 2019 he played almost half his innings at SS, which I’m sure you know has a higher positional value than 2B in WAR calculations. So I think the projection system projected either less time at SS which makes his bat less valuable or that he’d be closer to the -16 UVR/150 defender at SS for his career rather than the -3 UVR/150 there in 2019. 

That pretty much explains all of it. He’s projected to hit for a similar BABIP and similar K and BB rates.

 

Excellent post. It's refreshing to see someone make his point with logic instead of blind anger. 

[theocean]

3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I'd love to see the justification for the 1.8 projection. The fact is the guy has doubled that projection twice in the last 4 years and beat it by nearly 1 win in the 3rd. Villar is in his prime not in his middle 30s and declining.

 

The bummer about Front Offices switching to a complete analytics approach is that a lot players don't even get a chance to beat their projections.

[Roll Tide]

56 minutes ago, theocean said:

The bummer about Front Offices switching to a complete analytics approach is that a lot players don't even get a chance to beat their projections.

If he played here at SS next year he's a good bet to double the projection.

bur here is the rub.....Villar seemed to really settle in here. J Schoop seems like a good example for this. Schoop played extremely well here and has struggled mightily since the trade. Without looking at his WAR, I'd bet it has dropped off a cliff. The same is possible and is the same reason his agent could be hurting not helping with his ARB asking price with the Orioles.

[SteveA]

On 11/28/2019 at 8:27 AM, Frobby said:

Earlier in the thread, I quoted Dave Szymborski as saying the relationship between salary and WAR is no longer as linear as it used to be, and that teams aren’t paying $8 mm for that first WAR.   I infer that it gets more linear after that.     But I have some observations, not necessarily related to Villar, though some are:

1.   Teams do not value oWAR and dWAR equally.     Teams pay more for oWAR.     I think that’s because defensive measures are less reliable and less predictive of future results.    

2.   Teams don’t pay for past performance, they pay for estimated future performance.    If they believed Villar would be a four  WAR player in the future, he’d obviously have a significant trade market.

3.    What teams pay for WAR is position-dependent.    Show me a 2.5 WAR pitcher and a 2.5 WAR second baseman, and the pitcher will make more money every time.   Which tells you that teams don’t think WAR accurately measures what it purports to measure.    

I think it would be pretty easy to create a valuation model that takes these factors into account, though Lord knows I have no intention of doing it.   

The other thing is...these valuations of WAR vs $ are all based on the veteran free agent market, which the Orioles are probably not going to be participating in a big way in until they are close to contention.

It's pretty much an agreed upon fact that the veteran free agent market can't be the primary way to build a team, because of the expense.  

So even if you determine that Villar is worth X million dollars based on projected WAR and some established $/WAR figure based on the free agent market... He probably isn't worth that to us.

[Roll Tide]

On 11/28/2019 at 8:27 AM, Frobby said:

Earlier in the thread, I quoted Dave Szymborski as saying the relationship between salary and WAR is no longer as linear as it used to be, and that teams aren’t paying $8 mm for that first WAR.   I infer that it gets more linear after that.     But I have some observations, not necessarily related to Villar, though some are:

1.   Teams do not value oWAR and dWAR equally.     Teams pay more for oWAR.     I think that’s because defensive measures are less reliable and less predictive of future results.    

2.   Teams don’t pay for past performance, they pay for estimated future performance.    If they believed Villar would be a four  WAR player in the future, he’d obviously have a significant trade market.

3.    What teams pay for WAR is position-dependent.    Show me a 2.5 WAR pitcher and a 2.5 WAR second baseman, and the pitcher will make more money every time.   Which tells you that teams don’t think WAR accurately measures what it purports to measure.    

I think it would be pretty easy to create a valuation model that takes these factors into account, though Lord knows I have no intention of doing it.   

What do you think would be his trade market at 3.0 WAR? One would believe it would still be considerable no? How can you not look at his 4 years and assume you will get any less than his average.

I saw the 1.8 projection for Villar and think its hogwash. I think Villar would safely be worth 8-10 WAR over the next 3 seasons. He's in his prime and appears to be trending up.

Obviously, he has to go somewhere and be a starter as opposed to a utility INF that doesn't play everyday.

I don't care if he plays 2nd or SS ..... I would expect that he'd produce 2.7 minimum

[LookinUp]

13 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I don’t have access to the algorithm used to make the projections obviously, but I can give you the basics. BTW, I noted in another post that the projection likely misses the boost he apparently gets when playing regularly.

The projection sees him getting 60+ less PA (which is a good bet IMO)

It sees his ISO halfway between his 2019 and his career average. So simple regression. 

It sees him drop off from the huge career best baserunning WAR of over 1 to .3. 

In 2019 he played almost half his innings at SS, which I’m sure you know has a higher positional value than 2B in WAR calculations. So I think the projection system projected either less time at SS which makes his bat less valuable or that he’d be closer to the -16 UVR/150 defender at SS for his career rather than the -3 UVR/150 there in 2019. 

That pretty much explains all of it. He’s projected to hit for a similar BABIP and similar K and BB rates.

 

So we should tender Villar, make him a full time SS and trade him at the deadline. 
 

Not really, but WAR justifications would say so.

[weams]

36 minutes ago, SteveA said:

The other thing is...these valuations of WAR vs $ are all based on the veteran free agent market, which the Orioles are probably not going to be participating in a big way in until they are close to contention.

It's pretty much an agreed upon fact that the veteran free agent market can't be the primary way to build a team, because of the expense.  

So even if you determine that Villar is worth X million dollars based on projected WAR and some established $/WAR figure based on the free agent market... He probably isn't worth that to us.

It also appears that the league has regressed the money attached to WAR. Not to say that there are other things that a front office will pay for, but that seems to have progressed beyond WAR for the smarter one.

[weams]

20 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

What do you think would be his trade market at 3.0 WAR? One would believe it would still be considerable no? How can you not look at his 4 years and assume you will get any less than his average.

I saw the 1.8 projection for Villar and think its hogwash. I think Villar would safely be worth 8-10 WAR over the next 3 seasons. He's in his prime and appears to be trending up.

Obviously, he has to go somewhere and be a starter as opposed to a utility INF that doesn't play everyday.

I don't care if he plays 2nd or SS ..... I would expect that he'd produce 2.7 minimum

I think the days of figuring what a guy is worth in the market based on WAR may have been over two years ago. Some teams of course were slow to get there.