I really want to keep Villar (Update: Traded to Marlins for LHS Easton Lucas)

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

But as I mentioned in another post, I also think its possible that he is not good at trading. It takes a completely different skill set than that of a statistics or analytic guy.

I think your mixing two things here.

1.   It is possible Elias is not very good at trading.    Agreed, that is possible.    He’s never had to do it before he became a GM, so that’s a new skill set for him.    Trading involves both assessment of players (which Elias does have experience with) and an element of timing and persuasion with fellow GM’s (which he hasn’t had experience with).     So, the jury’s out on that and it may be a skill he can learn but hasn’t learned yet.   

2.   Elias is a statistics or analytics guy.     I think that undersells Elias, who was an in the field scout for a number of years, has managed other people, has been in charge of international operations, etc.    I don’t perceive Elias as some guy who doesn’t get the nuances of actually playing the game.    
 

[weams]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Agreed.   Really the worst you hear about him is that he has lapses of concentration on defense or on the bases.    And that just tells be he could be even better than he is.   

I agree. It's probably about valuation which the league has reinforced. My dad pays extra for Morton salt. Some folks don't.

[weams]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

 

2.   Elias is a statistics or analytics guy.     I think that undersells Elias, who was an in the field scout for a number of years, has managed other people, has been in charge of international operations, etc.    I don’t perceive Elias as some guy who doesn’t get the nuances of actually playing the game.    
 

Elias was a Yale Starter with a pretty good chance before he got injured. Yale does not redshirt. He ended up interning twice. 

[Roll Tide]

26 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think your mixing two things here.

1.   It is possible Elias is not very good at trading.    Agreed, that is possible.    He’s never had to do it before he became a GM, so that’s a new skill set for him.    Trading involves both assessment of players (which Elias does have experience with) and an element of timing and persuasion with fellow GM’s (which he hasn’t had experience with).     So, the jury’s out on that and it may be a skill he can learn but hasn’t learned yet.   

2.   Elias is a statistics or analytics guy.     I think that undersells Elias, who was an in the field scout for a number of years, has managed other people, has been in charge of international operations, etc.    I don’t perceive Elias as some guy who doesn’t get the nuances of actually playing the game.    
 

1) I agree with your points! However, I've been a business guy (I hesitate to say Sales or Sales Manager) for years. It is been my belief and observation that both that persuasion are talents that people are born with. I'm not saying that they arent or cant be developed. Some of my top performing people were good even though it was obvious that they were novice reps.  The average performers on the other hand can make up some of the gap by long hours, hard work, and resisting the urge to give the house away to get a deal.

2) I agree 100% with that points. I wasn't trying to dismiss anything he's done.

[weams]

https://cubbiescrib.com/2019/11/30/potential-cubs-jonathan-villar-second-base/

https://reviewingthebrew.com/2019/11/30/brewers-reunite-jonathan-villar/

https://thatballsouttahere.com/2019/11/28/phillies-infielder-jonathan-villar/

https://blogredmachine.com/2019/11/28/cincinnati-reds-recently-waived-jonathan-villar-target/

[weams]

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/analysis/schmuck/bs-sp-dumping-jonathan-villar-makes-sense-20191201-cdw4nlq6abgzpf5tqz6qs7ury4-story.html

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Mike Elias made it pretty clear in late September that he isn’t interested in spending any real money for cosmetic victories

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Elias is right that it makes no business sense to pay a guy $10 million or so to help you lose 90 or 100 games when he isn’t likely to be around when your rebuilding project (hopefully) blooms, but the same logic doesn’t provide quite the same justification for trading away Mancini.

 

[Roll Tide]

12 minutes ago, weams said:

https://cubbiescrib.com/2019/11/30/potential-cubs-jonathan-villar-second-base/

https://reviewingthebrew.com/2019/11/30/brewers-reunite-jonathan-villar/

https://thatballsouttahere.com/2019/11/28/phillies-infielder-jonathan-villar/

https://blogredmachine.com/2019/11/28/cincinnati-reds-recently-waived-jonathan-villar-target/

So the Cubs are broke and Villar would need to be cheap.... Not Happening

The Brewers dont want a reunion

Phillies could be a possibility

and

Reds (See Below)

 

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A leadoff hitter with speed who can hit for power, where do I sign up? The Reds need to solidify one of those middle infield spots, and Villar can do just that. He’d only be under contract for one year, so even if he didn’t match the production of last season, Cincinnati wouldn’t be on the hook for a large amount of money over several years.

We have to hope he gets claimed by 2 or more

[Roll Tide]

13 minutes ago, weams said:

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/analysis/schmuck/bs-sp-dumping-jonathan-villar-makes-sense-20191201-cdw4nlq6abgzpf5tqz6qs7ury4-story.html

 

Quote

Mike Elias made it pretty clear in late September that he isn’t interested in spending any real money for cosmetic victories

By doing so he tipped his hand to trade suitors. Why trade prospects for Villar if you think he could de DFA'd. If they thought that from his comments to a media outlet they were right! This is a big mistake in my opinion.

Quote

Elias is right that it makes no business sense to pay a guy $10 million or so to help you lose 90 or 100 games when he isn’t likely to be around when your rebuilding project (hopefully) blooms, but the same logic doesn’t provide quite the same justification for trading away Mancini.

Maybe it doesn't ...But the real question for me is did he attempt to extend him for a reasonable contract? The Orioles had a pretty good run at winning arb cases. If the Blooming is anticipated in 2021 or 2022 he could still be around and productive if he was offered and accepted an reasonable extension...But just my opinion

[weams]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

By doing so he tipped his hand to trade suitors. Why trade prospects for Villar if you think he could de DFA'd. If they thought that from his comments to a media outlet they were right! This is a big mistake in my opinion.

Maybe it doesn't ...But the real question for me is did he attempt to extend him for a reasonable contract? The Orioles had a pretty good run at winning arb cases. If the Blooming is anticipated in 2021 or 2022 he could still be around and productive if he was offered and accepted an reasonable extension...But just my opinion

Why would an extension be smart on a team that won't compete during it? Just asking. 

[weams]

8 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

So the Cubs are broke and Villar would need to be cheap.... Not Happening

The Brewers dont want a reunion

Phillies could be a possibility

and

Reds (See Below)

 

We have to hope he gets claimed by 2 or more

He is not getting claimed. He is not signing after 1 PM for 7 million. 

[HowAboutThat]

I’ve made the point before, but no team wanted him, even for free, if the cost is ten million. All those hopeful teams are happy to have him for less, but for Mike it’s 10 or let him walk. I understand the logic  and I think whatever he signs for will verify it.

Having said that, I do agree with the folks who say that 10 mill is nothing. Gosh, how much money has been wasted on signings that were stupid even before they were made? Especially when we consider the difference between 10 mill and what the team considered true value, which isn’t that much.

But I’m happy to trust mike for now, and I think he will eventually be vindicated in this.

[Roll Tide]

3 minutes ago, weams said:

Why would an extension be smart on a team that won't compete during it? Just asking. 

I would expect this process to show significant improvement on 2021 and perhaps be competitive in 2022. Villar is not in his middle 30s ...He will be playing his age 29 season in 2019. If the contract was reasonable he could certainly be dealt later.

My biggest hangup on the deal is mentioned in your other post....He tipped to the Sun his intention to not pay him and deflated any potential trade market.

Finally, Are the Orioles still not asking you to buy tickets? Is it still a revenue generating entity? Then paying one of their best player when they've dumped $$80 million in payroll would be a small gift to the paying customer. You guys act like 10 million dollars is a lot of money. In baseball you can barely buy a mid 30s starter with a 4.5-5.0 ERA like Tanner Roark

[weams]

6 minutes ago, Philip said:

I’ve made the point before, but no team wanted him, even for free, if the cost is ten million. All those hopeful teams are happy to have him for less, but for Mike it’s 10 or let him walk. I understand the logic  and I think whatever he signs for will verify it.

Having said that, I do agree with the folks who say that 10 mill is nothing. Gosh, how much money has been wasted on signings that were stupid even before they were made? Especially when we consider the difference between 10 mill and what the team considered true value, which isn’t that much.

But I’m happy to trust mike for now, and I think he will eventually be vindicated in this.

I've made mistakes in life. That does not mean I wish to make more. Hopefully I've learned some. Being young was fun but being smarter is good too. 

[Roll Tide]

14 minutes ago, weams said:

He is not getting claimed. He is not signing after 1 PM for 7 million. 

Which means that it was a terrible play and decision by Elias. And your right ...He probably gets 3 years 28-36 million

My point early about $6.5-7.5 million was that I thought he could be extended midseason for somewhere in that ballpark

[Roll Tide]

11 minutes ago, Philip said:

I’ve made the point before, but no team wanted him, even for free, if the cost is ten million. All those hopeful teams are happy to have him for less, but for Mike it’s 10 or let him walk. I understand the logic  and I think whatever he signs for will verify it.

Having said that, I do agree with the folks who say that 10 mill is nothing. Gosh, how much money has been wasted on signings that were stupid even before they were made? Especially when we consider the difference between 10 mill and what the team considered true value, which isn’t that much.

But I’m happy to trust mike for now, and I think he will eventually be vindicated in this.

Someone is going to sign him and like @weams said its not going to be for 7 million. And yes it will likely be without giving up any trade assets. Which was an Oriole blunder by saying they werent going to tender him. As an opposing GM, why trade anything for him when you were told by the man that he was going to be released