Connolly: Hobgood and Jordan

[weams]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

 

Because Jordan is such a high quality person, I'm sure it does bother him that he had such high profile bust picks as Hobgood and Rowell (I have a whole other story on the Rowell situation but I save that for another time if people are interested), but at the end of the day, the man is an outstanding elevator of talent and I learned a lot from him over the years I spent having conversations about scouting.

I'm interested. 

[weams]

9 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I was referring to Jordan and Hobgood.

Hobgood was always a hidden eater. Not that he should be ashamed of that. But that was not what the Orioles asked for or paid him for. As a guy who eats, I understand.  I always did what I was being paid to do. And to hide that you weren't is a huge character flaw right there. The Orioles would have gotten him a life coach and counselor to help. 

[weams]

Just now, weams said:

Hobgood was always a hidden eater. Not that he should be ashamed of that. But that wA not what the Orioles asked for or paid him for. As a guy who eats, I understand.  I always did what I was being paid to do. And to hide that you weren't is a huge character flaw right there. The Orioles would have gotten him a life coach and counselor to help. 

It's not like he could have given back the money to pursue competitive eating.  As he said in the article. He spent the money. 

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, weams said:

Hobgood was always a hidden eater. Not that he should be ashamed of that. But that was not what the Orioles asked for or paid him for. As a guy who eats, I understand.  I always did what I was being paid to do. And to hide that you weren't is a huge character flaw right there. The Orioles would have gotten him a life coach and counselor to help. 

Also, he was old.

[Enjoy Terror]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

If Hobgood pitched like Jordan expected, he would probably have been a good pick. I think Jordan's knocked for not appropriately weighting the downside in the end.. 

It’s like in fantasy sports drafts though; you don’t take players based on how well you think they’ll do, you take them based on where you think you can draft them.

Hobgood was a headscratching first round pick and wasn’t mocked anywhere near there. He could have been a supposed first round talent acquired in the second round, or later.

 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Enjoy Terror said:

It’s like in fantasy sports drafts though; you don’t take players based on how well you think they’ll do, you take them based on where you think you can draft them.

Hobgood was a headscratching first round pick and wasn’t mocked anywhere near there. He could have been a supposed first round talent acquired in the second round.

 

That is a lot harder when you can't trade down.  

[Enjoy Terror]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

That is a lot harder when you can't trade down.  

We could’ve drafted someone else. If money wasn’t an issue than this isn’t a problem.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Enjoy Terror said:

We could’ve drafted someone else. If money wasn’t an issue than this isn’t a problem.

Huh?

My point is if you really think Hobgood was the guy you have to pull the trigger at five.  Odds are very good he wouldn't have been there at 2-5.

[Enjoy Terror]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Huh?

My point is if you really think Hobgood was the guy you have to pull the trigger at five.  Odds are very good he wouldn't have been there at 2-5.

That’s where I disagree. Odds weren’t that good.

[LookinUp]

9 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

It’s like in fantasy sports drafts though; you don’t take players based on how well you think they’ll do, you take them based on where you think you can draft them.

Hobgood was a headscratching first round pick and wasn’t mocked anywhere near there. He could have been a supposed first round talent acquired in the second round, or later.

 

It has been a while, but I recall there was a mock that had him rising into the low teens. Others were on him, jut not in the Matzek/Wheeler range. 

I don't have access to the Athletic, but what is lost on me is whether the Hobgood pick is viewed by experienced scouts as bad luck or bad decision making. We know it was a bad decision in the end, but was the process flawed? Tony's explanation essentially points to bad luck. I'm guessing others would differ.

[glenn__davis]

9 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

Hobgood was a headscratching first round pick and wasn’t mocked anywhere near there. He could have been a supposed first round talent acquired in the second round, or later.

 

I don't believe this is correct.  I seem to recall most mocks had him in the mid/late 1st round.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Enjoy Terror said:

That’s where I disagree. Odds weren’t that good.

I remember heading he was a late riser that day of draft was likely to go in the 15=22 range.

I think zero chance he dropped to 54.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

It has been a while, but I recall there was a mock that had him rising into the low teens. Others were on him, jut not in the Matzek/Wheeler range. 

I don't have access to the Athletic, but what is lost on me is whether the Hobgood pick is viewed by experienced scouts as bad luck or bad decision making. We know it was a bad decision in the end, but was the process flawed? Tony's explanation essentially points to bad luck. I'm guessing others would differ.

I've said bad process since 10 seconds after the pick was made so I'm sticking with it.

[MCO'sFan]

At the time he was here, I thought Jordan did a good job. In hindsight, that was because the guys before him were historically bad. Now I think he did mostly a poor job. Always liked the guy but, short of the no brainers, he didn't have a lot of guys that he found in later rounds.

[Tony-OH]

31 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

It has been a while, but I recall there was a mock that had him rising into the low teens. Others were on him, jut not in the Matzek/Wheeler range. 

I don't have access to the Athletic, but what is lost on me is whether the Hobgood pick is viewed by experienced scouts as bad luck or bad decision making. We know it was a bad decision in the end, but was the process flawed? Tony's explanation essentially points to bad luck. I'm guessing others would differ.

Not necessarily. Did Jordan have enough info on why Hobgood had such a velocity jump that senior year? Did he go against the conventional wisdom in order to make some "I know something you guys don't know" statement? 

Sure, Hobgood never showing the velocity or stuff after he arrived was a bit of bad luck, and maybe he was hurt, but it also does leave open a question of PEDs. Sure, Jordan is not going to say anything and everyone who has met Hobgood likes him, but that doesn't necessarily mean he never took them to get that bump in velocity. 

Now I'm not saying he did or didn't, but he did have a classic velocity jump for short period of time, followed by a drop off in the pros. If he did, he's not the first or last kid who in high school took something that enabled a velocity jump.

I know in the High School wrestling community it's an issue and I honestly wish they would start drug testing for PEDs in high school, especially with the pressure these young men are put under to get scholarships or potentially millions of dollars in bonus money by getting drafted high.

Again, I'm not saying Hobgood did anything or not, but it would be foolish to just ignore the evidence, even if it's circumstantial.