Connolly: Hobgood and Jordan

[baltfan]

9 hours ago, eddie83 said:

It was a very good story. Seems like a very easy person to root for. 

The velocity dip is very alarming.  

problem with the PED theory is why wouldn’t he just go back on them?   Clearly,he did want to succeed.  

[MCO'sFan]

12 hours ago, TINSTAAPP said:

Here's a stat for you. On the three Orioles playoff teams, there were a total of seven picks by Jordan who made the roster on those playoff teams. That's Britton, Wieters, Matusz, Caleb Joseph, Givens, Manny, and Bundy. Those Orioles teams made the playoffs in spite of their terrible drafting not because of it. 

Thanks for posting that. 4 of the 7 were top 5? picks. Two of those are underperformers in Matusz and Bundy. (Yes I know the draft is a crap shoot especially with pity but I still believe they underperformed for their draft slots)

[hoosiers]

11 hours ago, survivedc said:

This seems like incomplete logic to me. First, the 2012 team included Roberts, Arrietta, Markakis, Jim Johnson, Reimold and some others that were drafted before Jordan, so you can hardly fault him for that. 

Second, and I certainly don’t have the energy to look this up, but Jordan having 7 players on a playoff bound team in 7 years of drafting seems like it’s probably on par with other scouting directors around the league.

Jordan drafted Jake.

[sportsfan8703]

Rowell was supposed to be everything that Mountcastle is. 

[DrungoHazewood]

8 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

Could Hobgood's velocity spike in his senior year have been caused by putting max effort into his pitches to impress the scouts, which in turn eventually led to arm injuries?   There's not much doubt that Hobgood was damaged goods by the time he suited up for the O's, right?

It's unknowable with any certainty, he could have taken drugs.  But I think it's equally likely that he grew,  matured, maybe tweaked mechanics, went max effort... any number or combination of things could have caused his velocity to spike.  And the added strain of throwing 96 or whatever caused an injury.  Not a catastrophic, can't pitch any more injury, but a loss of 5 mph injury.  

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, atomic said:

Hobgood was the one guy I was really angry when he was drafted.  Overweight guy at 18

And people argue with me about when I say guys should go to college. 

Should Manny Machado have gone to college?

I don’t see how one failed draft pick supports your argument.    Some guys make it and some don’t.    Let’s say Hobgood hurt his arm in high school, and never had any success in college - a fairly probable scenario in his case.    So he turns down the $2.4 mm the O’s paid him, and after college gets a job in sales.    Is he better off?

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, MCO'sFan said:

Thanks for posting that. 4 of the 7 were top 5? picks. Two of those are underperformers in Matusz and Bundy. (Yes I know the draft is a crap shoot especially with pity but I still believe they underperformed for their draft slots)

There have been 55 drafts.  In rWAR terms Matusz is 25th in total value among #4 overall picks.  Of course a few of those 55 are still active or have not reached the majors yet, but Matusz is right around an average #4 pick.  23 #4 picks have had a career value of 0.1 wins or less.

Bundy, also a #4 overall pick, is currently six spots ahead of Matusz as the 19th-best from that slot of the 55.

As I've said many times, to be an acceptable draft pick to fans you have to be significantly better than average for your slot.  Heck, the median player taken #1 overall is someone like Kris Benson, Shawon Dunston, or Phil Nevin.  Literally, if Matt Wieters had been a #1 overall pick, he'd be well above average for the slot.

[DrungoHazewood]

Just now, Frobby said:

Should Manny Machado have gone to college?

I don’t see how one failed draft pick supports your argument.    Some guys make it and some don’t.    Let’s say Hobgood hurt his arm in high school, and never had any success in college - a fairly probable scenario in his case.    So he turns down the $2.4 mm the O’s paid him, and after college gets a job in sales.    Is he better off?

atomic's argument that he's made previously is that everyone is immature and stupid and will blow through their multi-$million bonus in 15 minutes, so they should always forgo the bonus and go to college.

But in a less cynical world a player could set aside a small fraction of his bonus as insurance against injury or poor performance and go back to school if the need arises.  If you skip out on the $millions up front there's a good chance it never comes back, and you can lose your scholarship from injury or poor performance.

[weams]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Should Manny Machado have gone to college?

I don’t see how one failed draft pick supports your argument.    Some guys make it and some don’t.    Let’s say Hobgood hurt his arm in high school, and never had any success in college - a fairly probable scenario in his case.    So he turns down the $2.4 mm the O’s paid him, and after college gets a job in sales.    Is he better off?

Who knows that Hobgood would not have put on a freshman fifty, never met that nice wife, had those sweet children. What would he have studied? And would he have continued after the scholarship was withdrawn due to lack of performance. 

[atomic]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Should Manny Machado have gone to college?

I don’t see how one failed draft pick supports your argument.    Some guys make it and some don’t.    Let’s say Hobgood hurt his arm in high school, and never had any success in college - a fairly probable scenario in his case.    So he turns down the $2.4 mm the O’s paid him, and after college gets a job in sales.    Is he better off?

Yes he is better off.  Most guys won’t turn out to be Manny.  Look at drafts of guys picked in the first round from high school. See how many have even a smidgen of success in the majors.

[atomic]

 

8 minutes ago, weams said:

Who knows that Hobgood would not have put on a freshman fifty, never met that nice wife, had those sweet children. What would he have studied? And would he have continued after the scholarship was withdrawn due to lack of performance. 

Looks like he put on the senior 100 in high school.  

[survivedc]

3 hours ago, hoosiers said:

Jordan drafted Jake.

Chalk another one up for the good guys

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

Yes he is better off.  Most guys won’t turn out to be Manny.  Look at drafts of guys picked in the first round from high school. See how many have even a smidgen of success in the majors.

But he got $2.42M.  If he'd gone to college the most likely outcome is that he was still hurt, pitches poorly, loses his scholarship in a year or two, and has to come up with the money to finish school AND he's out $2.42M. 

The only scenario where college was the logical choice for Matt Hobgood was one where he was magically not hurt and you assume he's always going to burn through his entire bonus with nothing to show for it.

[weams]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

But he got $2.42M.  If he'd gone to college the most likely outcome is that he was still hurt, pitches poorly, loses his scholarship in a year or two, and has to come up with the money to finish school AND he's out $2.42M. 

The only scenario where college was the logical choice for Matt Hobgood was one where he was magically not hurt and you assume he's always going to burn through his entire bonus with nothing to show for it.

Narrator: "He burned through his entire bonus with nothing to show for it..."

[TINSTAAPP]

6 hours ago, baltfan said:

problem with the PED theory is why wouldn’t he just go back on them?   Clearly,he did want to succeed.  

California does not test their high school athletes for steroids or PEDs while minor league baseball does.

Quote

 

In 2004, legislators in California, the state with the second-highest number of high school athletes, passed a bill to mandate testing, but it was vetoed by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R), a former professional bodybuilder who has admitted to past use of steroids.

 

https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2007/06/15/high-school-athletes-next-for-steroid-tests