Orioles open up job spot for Luke-OH

[Luke-OH]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yes, this will be interesting.    I have a feeling Mike Griffin’s head will be on the chopping block.   He’s had a nice run here but our Norfolk pitchers have not been transitioning well to the majors.   Next year is really critical with the highly successful Bowie rotation graduating to Norfolk.   We need a PC there who is completely on board with Chris Holt.   

I think we'll see more Tom Eller and Justin Ramsey types hired.

 

[orioles22]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yes, this will be interesting.    I have a feeling Mike Griffin’s head will be on the chopping block.   He’s had a nice run here but our Norfolk pitchers have not been transitioning well to the majors.   Next year is really critical with the highly successful Bowie rotation graduating to Norfolk.   We need a PC there who is completely on board with Chris Holt.   

We definitely can't afford to gamble with our Norfolk staff next year - that has to go well for the Orioles' future.

[Philip]

18 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Pun intended I assume

When I posted my question I have not yet read the rest of the comments, I understand the model now, although I still can’t understand why boots on the ground is less important, especially guys with a lot of experience who have highly developed eyes.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I think we'll see more Tom Eller and Justin Ramsey types hired.

 

I think so too.    I’m trying to remember the name of the guy who was going to join our MiL staff but backed out during spring training.    Wonder what happened to him (and why he backed out).    

[Luke-OH]

9 minutes ago, Philip said:

 Can you please explain a model based system? Seems logical that you’d still want a lot of eyes on the guys regardless.

You figure out what inputs (data) have predictive value in what players end up being productive major league players.

You create an algorithm that takes those data points and gives a predicted value.

You collect those data points (weight, height, age, bat speed, velocity, arm slot, extension, reaction time, exit velocity, 60 times, game statistics, spin rate, etc, etc) and input them into said algorithm.

You pick the kid the algorithm spits out. (with the obvious caveat that there is some makeup assessment factored in, but I'm not sure of how that works)

[Moose Milligan]

So @Luke-OHwhen's the first day?  Make sure you show up 15 minutes early, dressed to impress and get all your first day questions answered!

[Luke-OH]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think so too.    I’m trying to remember the name of the guy who was going to join our MiL staff but backed out during spring training.    Wonder what happened to him (and why he backed out).    

Matt Trate

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think so too.    I’m trying to remember the name of the guy who was going to join our MiL staff but backed out during spring training.    Wonder what happened to him (and why he backed out).    

Was it Matt Trate?

Scooped by seconds, curses!

Edited August 23, 2019 by Can_of_corn

[Satyr3206]

2 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Or his process doesn't require the same quantity of in person scouting. 

I hope that's not the case. You have to take a look at them.

[Satyr3206]

5 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

You figure out what inputs (data) have predictive value in what players end up being productive major league players.

You create an algorithm that takes those data points and gives a predicted value.

You collect those data points (weight, height, age, bat speed, velocity, arm slot, extension, reaction time, exit velocity, 60 times, game statistics, spin rate, etc, etc) and input them into said algorithm.

You pick the kid the algorithm spits out. (with the obvious caveat that there is some makeup assessment factored in, but I'm not sure of how that works)

If Scouting, and Baseball for that matter, devolves to this I'll find another sport to watch.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Was it Matt Trate?

Scooped by seconds, curses!

Pleasure to have you on this site, Mr. Kubatko.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Pleasure to have you on this site, Mr. Kubatko.

It's what I get for pulling up his Twitter account and making sure. 

[weams]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's what I get for pulling up his Twitter account and making sure. 

You have to do it like Heyman or Incarcerated Bob. Post first. Delete later. 

[Luke-OH]

4 minutes ago, Satyr3206 said:

I hope that's not the case. You have to take a look at them.

I think you miss something with a model-based system, but I don't think the overall quality of eyes on scouting is good enough to beat a well-engineered model. Actually, let me phrase that differently, I don't think front offices can effectively grade scouts or parse the difference between good eyes on scouting and bad eyes on scouting. Until teams figure out how to do that, it's going to be hard to beat a well engineered algorithm. 

Of course a good scout with enough looks is going to beat the model over a long enough run. But that doesn't matter, it's hard to tell even well after the fact who the good scouts are, then you have to have enough of those quality scouts to get enough looks for context on 1000s of players. That's a logistical impossibility. 

[Going Underground]

38 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yes, this will be interesting.    I have a feeling Mike Griffin’s head will be on the chopping block.   He’s had a nice run here but our Norfolk pitchers have not been transitioning well to the majors.   Next year is reareally critical with the highly successful Bowie rotation graduating to Norfolk.   We need a PC there who is completely on board with Chris Holt.   

So do they also  reassign or let Brocali go ? They say he had nothing to work with but did Griffin?