Orioles open up job spot for Luke-OH

[TonySoprano]

 

[Satyr3206]

5 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I think you miss something with a model-based system, but I don't think the overall quality of eyes on scouting is good enough to beat a well-engineered model. Actually, let me phrase that differently, I don't think front offices can effectively grade scouts or parse the difference between good eyes on scouting and bad eyes on scouting. Until teams figure out how to do that, it's going to be hard to beat a well engineered algorithm. 

Of course a good scout with enough looks is going to beat the model over a long enough run. But that doesn't matter, it's hard to tell even well after the fact who the good scouts are, then you have to have enough of those quality scouts to get enough looks for context on 1000s of players. That's a logistical impossibility. 

You are basically saying that a mathmatical model is equal or better than a Scout.

[Satyr3206]

I have a fundamental problem with bean counters acting like Baseball guys. Just me .

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Satyr3206 said:

I have a fundamental problem with bean counters acting like Baseball guys. Just me .

I have a problem with scouts thinking that because a player has a less than attractive girlfriend he lacks confidence.  NSFW

 

[Ohfan67]

3 minutes ago, Satyr3206 said:

I have a fundamental problem with bean counters acting like Baseball guys. Just me .

I have a problem with poor drafting and poor player development. Just me. 

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, Satyr3206 said:

You are basically saying that a mathmatical model is equal or better than a Scout.

I'm saying a GM using a mathematical model outperforms a GM making decisions based on compiled scouting reports and crosschecks. The GM using scouts will surely have a number of scouts whose evaluations of a player will be much better than the model's evaluation, but will the area coordinator agree, will the cross-checker agree, will the team draft that player? It's less about being better and more about having a process that's standardized. If you read my earlier post, you'll know I think that there is a way to effectively combine the two, but teams aren't going to try for that as long as there is still some advantage to be gained by going to a model based system (which there appears to be). 

 

1 minute ago, Satyr3206 said:

I have a fundamental problem with bean counters acting like Baseball guys. Just me .

What about baseball guys who decide they are better off acting like bean counters, I mean, isn't that what Mike Elias is, a DI player and a scout first?

[Satyr3206]

As long as Baseball players are human, numbers will never tell the entire story. I also believe you have to put eyes on them. It tells you things the numbers never will. Everyone has an opinion. That's mine.

[interloper]

The previous front office would have waited until the last second to fire these guys. I applaud Elias for giving them time.

[Tony-OH]

Let's not forget, while this is business and Elias' choice to shape the organization as he sees fit, these are people who no longer have jobs and are in a field that is shrinking. Tripp Norton had been with the club over 20 years in various roles and Dean Albany is a born and bred Orioles fan who basically just got fired from his dream job.

Both are good people and while I understand what is going on, from a human perspective it sucks to see people you've known for a longtime lose their jobs.

 

[Satyr3206]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Let's not forget, while this is business and Elias' choice to shape the organization as he sees fit, these are people who no longer have jobs and are in a field that is shrinking. Tripp Norton had been with the club over 20 years in various roles and Dean Albany is a born and bred Orioles fan who basically just got fired from his dream job.

Both are good people and while I understand what is going on, from a human perspective it sucks to see people you've known for a longtime lose their jobs.

 

Elias has control and can do what he wants. But I get where you are coming from. Imagine being 50 or 60 and told you are fired because of an algorithm.

[Philip]

25 minutes ago, Satyr3206 said:

As long as Baseball players are human, numbers will never tell the entire story. I also believe you have to put eyes on them. It tells you things the numbers never will. Everyone has an opinion. That's mine.

 I agree completely. The human element is extremely important. I remember reading a book that was written by the man who scouted Nolan Ryan. I don’t remember the name, but it was a great book. I enjoyed it very much. But I couldn’t help but think that any idiot could have scouted Nolan Ryan. 

The great scouts are the guys who can see something that nobody else sees. Any idiot can draft a flinger who throws 100 miles an hour, but as I have often said, that is an ability and not a skill.

But how many guys can look at and 88 or 90 mile an hour arm and say, “this guy has got “it” “

And that something that the computer will never be able to tell.

[tntoriole]

I am glad to see changes and if they are looking for a team shrink....I will work cheap. 

[makoman]

32 minutes ago, Philip said:

 I agree completely. The human element is extremely important. I remember reading a book that was written by the man who scouted Nolan Ryan. I don’t remember the name, but it was a great book. I enjoyed it very much. But I couldn’t help but think that any idiot could have scouted Nolan Ryan. 

The great scouts are the guys who can see something that nobody else sees. Any idiot can draft a flinger who throws 100 miles an hour, but as I have often said, that is an ability and not a skill.

But how many guys can look at and 88 or 90 mile an hour arm and say, “this guy has got “it” “

And that something that the computer will never be able to tell.

I think if you throw 88-90 there isn’t some mystical “it” that’s going to make you a major leaguer. You are going to need plus movement, command, secondaries, or deception, and really some combination of those things. Why can’t a model, which has inputs of things like movement and location and spin, tell us those things? I don’t think moxie is enough to make a straight 88 FB with no command play, so a model with the right inputs gets you most of the way there. A scout can confirm what the model says to finish things off, or help decide who the model looks at to begin with, or break ties in the model, or make makeup adjustments. I don’t think anyone thinks that scouts are obsolete. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, makoman said:

I think if you throw 88-90 there isn’t some mystical “it” that’s going to make you a major leaguer. You are going to need plus movement, command, secondaries, or deception, and really some combination of those things. Why can’t a model, which has inputs of things like movement and location and spin, tell us those things? I don’t think moxie is enough to make a straight 88 FB with no command play, so a model with the right inputs gets you most of the way there. A scout can confirm what the model says to finish things off, or help decide who the model looks at to begin with, or break ties in the model, or make makeup adjustments. I don’t think anyone thinks that scouts are obsolete. 

Hader topped out at 88 MPH out of HS. 

[Ohfan67]

1 hour ago, Satyr3206 said:

Elias has control and can do what he wants. But I get where you are coming from. Imagine being 50 or 60 and told you are fired because of an algorithm.

You don’t think these decisions could be performance based? New GMs routinely make sweeping personnel changes.