What impact will Hays, Mountcastle and Stewart have in 2020?

[mdbdotcom]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

I never said that.  I said he does not play a day for Norfolk.  Probably a poor choice of words.  I meant he never plays a regular season game with Norfolk.   He probably plays a few ST games for them.

You said he would be working out with the major league team. Can't be in two places at one time.

[wildcard]

18 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

While this was true, it also showed the Orioles attempt to try and find a position that would maximize his value. I don't think it was necessarily a bad thing to try him at 3B first, even though I didn't think his arm had any chance of succeeding there either. The most absurd thing I heard was that the Orioles had to keep Mountcastle at SS because Duquette insisted upon it because it "maximized his value to other teams." This is absurd because no scout that saw Mountcastle though he could ever play SS effectively in the majors so just because the Orioles played him there did not mean other teams viewed him as such.

The player development folks wanted to move him from SS after his Delmarva year and some after instructs after he was drafted. The Orioles were never very good at getting guys experience at potential positions they would play at the major league level.

One of things I liked what I saw this year was them moving guys around a bit when they didn't have a guaranteed set position.

Player development seemed to have been Duquette's major short fall with the farm.   He could draft pretty well but seeing what Elias has done with  player development over the last year points out how poor  Duquette was in that area.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Player development seemed to have been Duquette's major short fall with the farm.   He could draft pretty well but seeing what Elias has done with  player development over the last year points out how poor  Duquette was in that area.

I thought it was trading guys away for marginal upgrades.

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

You said he would be working out with the major league team. Can't be in two places at one time.

Please point me to where I said he would be working out with the team.  I don't believe I said that.

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I thought it was trading guys away for marginal upgrades.

Well, that too.

[Can_of_corn]

20 hours ago, wildcard said:

I don't believe Mountcastle will play a day in the minors in 2020.

I believe Mountcastle not being with the team on OD is all about service time.  I think it will become apparent, if it isn't already,  in ST that Mouncastlle is ready to hit in the majors.    He has to be assigned to the minors for 15 days to get a 7th year before he is eligible for FA..   That means he will not be called up until April 10th.    The Tides don't open up their season until April 9th.    I think instead of Mountcastle going from Florida to Norfolk  he will travel to Baltimore to get ready to play the Pirates at Camden Yards. on the April 10th.

I know Elias said Mountcastle will start the season in the minors to work on his plate discipline and fielding but he will work with the major league staff on that for 6 weeks in ST.    His bat will speak loud IMO and he will be with the O's on the April 10th.  Its not smart for Elias to talk about service time because of league rules.  But that does not mean he can't change his mind based on what he sees in ST.

Certainly looks like what you are suggesting with the travel to Baltimore line.

[wildcard]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Certainly looks like what you are suggesting with the travel to Baltimore line.

Norfolk breaks  camp in Florida and will head to  Norfolk for their opener on the April 9th.  I said Mountcastle goes to Baltimore instead.   But the O's are not even in Baltimore on the 9th. There are playing the Yankees in NY on the 9th.  They don't get home until the 10th when they play the Pirates.  

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Norfolk breaks  camp in Florida and will head to  Norfolk for their opener.  I said Mountcastle goes to Baltimore instead.   But the O's are not even in Baltimore on the 9th. There are playing the Yankees in NY on the 9th.  They don't get home until the 10th when they play the Pirates.  

Did you read what I wrote before you responded?  I said it "looks like" what you are suggesting.  I can easily see someone (me for instance) reading that and thinking you mean for him to hang out in Baltimore.  Do we even know when spring training breaks for minor leaguers?  I don't think we do since the place I looked says a schedule hasn't been released yet.

[wildcard]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Did you read what I wrote before you responded?  I said it "looks like" what you are suggesting.  I can easily see someone (me for instance) reading that and thinking you mean for him to hang out in Baltimore.  Do we even know when spring training breaks for minor leaguers?  I don't think we do since the place I looked says a schedule hasn't been released yet.

I am not going to argue with you about what you or anyone else thinks.  I didn't say Mountcastle works out this the team before he joins the team.  Any yes I have no way of knowing the exact date that Norfolk leave Florida which is a pretty picky point in the whole scenario.

[Just Regular]

I don't think Mountcastle (or Rutschman in 2021) will be exactly April 10th or whatever the minimum requirement is because maximizing MLB wins isn't a thing until (I hope) 2022.  My guess is early May.

And of course for the low low price of 1-2 of your FA years at the club's price point you can walk the orange carpet to fanfare.

I still give Diaz a puncher's chance to beat Mountcastle to the show if at the end of April his performance is way ahead.  I do think about 1000-1200 PA's readying them for 2022 make sense, but you'd hope for 650 in 2021, and guess in 2020 there's wiggle room in the 350-550 range based on short-term context.

[Pickles]

To the question at hand, I think first you have to ask yourself how much playing time each will get and how valuable you think they will be in that playing time.

I think Mountcastle gets around 400 abs, regardless of the exact day he comes up.  I'd like to see him put up a WAR.  I think he'll hit ok- certainly not middle of the order guy right away- but I think he'll play enough outfield that his defense will bring his value down quite a bit.

I think Hays is handed the CF job from the jump.  I don't think he gets 700 abs or anything, because he's never shown that kind of ability to stay healthy.  I think he can get as many bats as he stays healthy for, which I'd ballpark around 550.  I'd like to see him put up 2 WAR.  I would not be shocked if he significantly outperformed this.  I would also not be shocked if he can't stay healthy and is middling.

I was disappointed in what I saw of Stewart.  I think they'll give him a chance this year and give him some PAs, especially early.  Frankly, Mountcastle is going to take a lot of Stewart's abs when he does arrive.  His playing time will fluctuate the most with how he is performing this year the most out of these guys.  300 abs and 1 WAR might even be ambitious.

So, I think 1200 abs or so and 4 WAR or so, is a median guesstimate for their cumulative impact next year.

[weams]

56 minutes ago, Pickles said:

To the question at hand, I think first you have to ask yourself how much playing time each will get and how valuable you think they will be in that playing time.

I think Mountcastle gets around 400 abs, regardless of the exact day he comes up.  I'd like to see him put up a WAR.  I think he'll hit ok- certainly not middle of the order guy right away- but I think he'll play enough outfield that his defense will bring his value down quite a bit.

I think Hays is handed the CF job from the jump.  I don't think he gets 700 abs or anything, because he's never shown that kind of ability to stay healthy.  I think he can get as many bats as he stays healthy for, which I'd ballpark around 550.  I'd like to see him put up 2 WAR.  I would not be shocked if he significantly outperformed this.  I would also not be shocked if he can't stay healthy and is middling.

I was disappointed in what I saw of Stewart.  I think they'll give him a chance this year and give him some PAs, especially early.  Frankly, Mountcastle is going to take a lot of Stewart's abs when he does arrive.  His playing time will fluctuate the most with how he is performing this year the most out of these guys.  300 abs and 1 WAR might even be ambitious.

So, I think 1200 abs or so and 4 WAR or so, is a median guesstimate for their cumulative impact next year.

I think that injuries will keep this from being spot on. I do agree though. 

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I thought it was trading guys away for marginal upgrades.

The only one that was awful was the Davies trade. But that was partially an assessment problem by the team's scouts and player development personnel. I was higher on Davies than anyone in the system. Everybody I spoke with had concerns with him being able to stick as a starter because of his size.

Regardless, trading any potential prospect away for Geraldo Parra on a .500 team was ridiculous. I still think this move was Duquette's Hail Mary play to get influence back that he lost after his flirtation with Toronto. I think he thought if he could get the Orioles back to the playoffs he could get his influence back, but that trade was awful from the very beginning and was the first time I had a huge problem with any move that Duquette made.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The only one that was awful was the Davies trade. But that was partially an assessment problem by the team's scouts and player development personnel. I was higher on Davies than anyone in the system. Everybody I spoke with had concerns with him being able to stick as a starter because of his size.

Regardless, trading any potential prospect away for Geraldo Parra on a .500 team was ridiculous. I still think this move was Duquette's Hail Mary play to get influence back that he lost after his flirtation with Toronto. I think he thought if he could get the Orioles back to the playoffs he could get his influence back, but that trade was awful from the very beginning and was the first time I had a huge problem with any move that Duquette made.

You don't ever trade for Dana Eveland.

[wildcard]

24 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The only one that was awful was the Davies trade. But that was partially an assessment problem by the team's scouts and player development personnel. I was higher on Davies than anyone in the system. Everybody I spoke with had concerns with him being able to stick as a starter because of his size.

Regardless, trading any potential prospect away for Geraldo Parra on a .500 team was ridiculous. I still think this move was Duquette's Hail Mary play to get influence back that he lost after his flirtation with Toronto. I think he thought if he could get the Orioles back to the playoffs he could get his influence back, but that trade was awful from the very beginning and was the first time I had a huge problem with any move that Duquette made.

He traded a first round draft choice for Jimenez.   And another first rounder for  Gallardo.  I know they were't straight trades  but that was the result.