2019 #5 Prospect Austin Hays - CF

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, mdbdotcom said:

A right-handed hitting Steve Finley?

I strongly dislike comping players to Finley.

 

[mdbdotcom]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I strongly dislike comping players to Finley.

 

I was asking. Why do you have such a strong reaction?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

I was asking. Why do you have such a strong reaction?

Because I think he has a very unusual career arc.

[mdbdotcom]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Because I think he has a very unusual career arc.

Oh, I wasn't even thinking about their career arcs,  just their skillsets and approach to the game. I don't see how players can be comped for results before they create them.

I could be misremembering this, but didn't Finley hurt his shoulder leaping for a ball at the wall in his first game as an Oriole and miss a few weeks? The way Finley played with reckless abandon, and speed, and a plus arm while putting up good offensive numbers. That's how I thought they were comparable.

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, mdbdotcom said:

Oh, I wasn't even thinking about their career arcs,  just their skillsets and approach to the game. I don't see how players can be comped for results before they create them.

I could be misremembering this, but didn't Finley hurt his shoulder leaping for a ball at the wall in his first game as an Oriole and miss a few weeks? The way Finley played with reckless abandon, and speed, and a plus arm while putting up good offensive numbers. That's how I thought they were comparable.

 

I guess as a style of player I can see similarities.  But I personally would have picked someone else.

[SilverRocket]

6 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

I don't know what percentage of likelihood outcome is considered "ceiling" in scouting reports, but I think the odds of Austin having a three or four year run as good Adam's best years are really, really low. Like basically zero.

It doesn't seem out of the question for Hays to have a 3-4 year run like Jones'. Putting up the same 10-year run is what's near impossible.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, SilverRocket said:

It doesn't seem out of the question for Hays to have a 3-4 year run like Jones'. Putting up the same 10-year run is what's near impossible.

Can we meet in the middle with six years?

[Jagwar]

How does Hays compare to someone like Pillar or Kiermaier? Hitting and Defense?

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Because I think he has a very unusual career arc.

It's like calling all mediocre 26-year-old lefties the next Jamie Moyer.  There is no next Jamie Moyer.

[DrungoHazewood]

38 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

How does Hays compare to someone like Pillar or Kiermaier? Hitting and Defense?

Clearly not on the same level defensively.  So comparing them would be like saying a shortstop is Ozzie, only with 50% less glove.

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Matos did have a 4 WIN season as a 24-year old but they soon found the holes in his swing. He never really had the minor league success that Hays had. Matos career minor league slash 268/.331/.389/.719 pales in comparison to Hays' so far .286/.327/.508/.835.

That was in the Orioles loopy phase.  I looked up Matos' minor league record earlier today and it doesn't make a lot of sense.  They called him up at 21 to start for the O's after 50 games of a .740 OPS at Bowie.  On a 74-win team. The Thrift years were strange.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, SilverRocket said:

It doesn't seem out of the question for Hays to have a 3-4 year run like Jones'. Putting up the same 10-year run is what's near impossible.

Jones is a bit overrated here.   His career OPS+ is 106, and his best 5-year run was 116.    That’s good, but not elite.    I loved what he did here, but it’s not like he’s some near Hall of Famer.   Among active position players he’s 39th in WAR.   18 of those players are his age or younger, and 28 have played as many seasons or fewer.

Now, do I expect Hays to top his career WAR?    Not really.    Is it nearly impossible?    I wouldn’t say that.   

[Ohfan67]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

Well, we are discussing ceiling here, not probabilities.    Jones, to me, never quite reached his own ceiling, because he wasn’t able to completely win his battle with plate discipline.    He’s had a great career, but 106 OPS+ might certainly be exceeded by Hays if he maxes out.   In short, I’d say Hays does have a Jones-like ceiling.     Reaching that ceiling won’t be easy, though.   

Is “maxed out” the same as ceiling? If there’s a 1% chance it happens then is that ceiling? 2%? I’m curious how people rate this. I think of ceiling as a more realistic or higher probability outcome. Like maybe 10%. 
 

What percentage of outfielders do you think retire with an OPS+ less than 100? Would you be surprised if it was more than 50%? Significantly more? Centerfielders with 14 years of experience?

I think you guys are being wildly optimistic about Hays. As you pointed out, this year’s OH evaluation of Hays is in many ways its rosiest evaluation ever of Hays, yet he was hurt a lot this year and his performance In the minor leagues was disappointing. Seems overly optimistic to me.  And I think the fun glimpse of Austin in September has most posters feeling warm and fuzzy. Understandable, but that doesn’t change the fundamentals of Hays projection. 

I just find the Jones comparison really off. Jones was in the big leagues at 20, was an all star at 23 and had 1000 ML at bats at the end of his age 23 season. Jones was a five time All Star. Is there a realistic chance that Hays will have five all star quality seasons? I think there’s almost zero chance that will happen. One all star level season? Like maybe 2%. Likewise with 32 career WAR. I think 12 career WAR would be a really good, maybe even great outcome for Hays. Jones has produced 5.5 when he was 23. I like Hays and don’t want to sound like I am hating on him, but he’s turning 25 next summer and hasn’t proven he can stick in the majors next season. 
 

 

[Ohfan67]

3 hours ago, SilverRocket said:

It doesn't seem out of the question for Hays to have a 3-4 year run like Jones'. Putting up the same 10-year run is what's near impossible.

I think it’s very, very low probability. Jones produced five all star seasons. Hays is going to produce five all star quality seasons? 

[Ohfan67]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Jones is a bit overrated here.   His career OPS+ is 106, and his best 5-year run was 116.    That’s good, but not elite.    I loved what he did here, but it’s not like he’s some near Hall of Famer.   Among active position players he’s 39th in WAR.   18 of those players are his age or younger, and 28 have played as many seasons or fewer.

Now, do I expect Hays to top his career WAR?    Not really.    Is it nearly impossible?    I wouldn’t say that.   

Yes, it’s nearly impossible. I think you would be shocked if you calculated the probability that a player Hays age, games played in the minors the past two years, career games played in the majors, etc., producing 32 WAR. Nick Markakis has 33. Is Hays going to have a better career than Nick? Nick had 6.7 WAR at 23. 
 

I’m  not trying to be combative, but I think you guys are way off on this one. 
 

p.s.  Adam Jones is 499th in career WAR. He’s clearly among the damn good baseball players. That what I said to myself as I scrolled through the list and read the names with 32 career WAR. Damn good really starts in the 20s WAR wise. Tons of players that had damn good careers. That list is a fun reminder of just how hard/low probability it is to have a career that generates 25+ WAR. 
 

p.p.s.  Turns out there are a lot more players that generated 32ish WAR that didn’t really produce any WAR until they were 25 or 26 than I thought. So maybe I’m just pessimistic and full of baloney.