Waiving/non-tendering Villar: pro or con?

[sportsfan8703]

I’d like to see the O’s spend all their allotted international slot bonuses, but I’m pretty sure it’s going to take a few years to establish relationships. And by relationships, we have to start paying the top prospects, and their families, when the kids are like 14. 

 

[theocean]

1 hour ago, POR said:

 From Astroball

Jeff Luhnow followed through on his promise to Jim Crane to rid the club of high- priced, underperforming veterans, in order to squirrel away the savings to spend in a future in which they could realistically  hope to compete.

 

I posted this in another thread - but the Astros haven't spent any of that "saved" money.

According to spotrac - here's the payrolls from 2013-2019 for Dallas, DC, and Houston. Houston is the 5th largest metro area in the country. Dallas has about half a million more people, DC has about half a million less.

I calculated the average payroll between Dallas and DC and compared it to Houston's payroll for that year. The row at the bottom of the chart shows how much less Houston spent that year in comparison to the average of their closest metropolitan area teams.

From 2013-2018, the Houston Astros spent $376.5M less than their closest metropolitan-sized-siblings. They finally spent more in 2019 - $17M more in payroll - after two straight 100+ win seasons, a World Series win, and three playoff appearances. But, I'd expect a team to be able to generate $17M after all of that.

Altogether, the Houston Astros have spent $359.5M less than either the Texas Rangers of Washington Nationals since 2013.

So, where'd all that money go?

[Roll Tide]

3 minutes ago, theocean said:

I agree with you - the goal is to create a system that can sustain a winner over a long period of time. I think the Orioles really should be looking at the Cardinals as a franchise to emulate, given they have similar markets.

But, I really disagree with what I bolded. 1998-2011 was so terrible because the front office was poorly managed and just straight up made terrible decisions. There aren't only two alternatives here: either tank or sign the 2020 version of Jay Payton.

Free Agency is really advantageous to teams right now. There's no reason why the O's can't spend a relatively small amount of money to make the team much better - and then also have new assets to trade for prospects. That's something I think Elias should be doing, instead of throwing away $800,000 at the Nate Karns of the world.

I agree with the bad decisions,  poor understaffed front office. But the problem was bigger than that! Angelos was no longer buying top tier free agents. Rather he was authorizing mid level acquisitions for mediocre ball players. All the while a Shitty scouting, development system was producing little.

[Roll Tide]

3 minutes ago, theocean said:

I posted this in another thread - but the Astros haven't spent any of that "saved" money.

According to spotrac - here's the payrolls from 2013-2019 for Dallas, DC, and Houston. Houston is the 5th largest metro area in the country. Dallas has about half a million more people, DC has about half a million less.

I calculated the average payroll between Dallas and DC and compared it to Houston's payroll for that year. The row at the bottom of the chart shows how much less Houston spent that year in comparison to the average of their closest metropolitan area teams.

From 2013-2018, the Houston Astros spent $376.5M less than their closest metropolitan-sized-siblings. They finally spent more in 2019 - $17M more in payroll - after two straight 100+ win seasons, a World Series win, and three playoff appearances. But, I'd expect a team to be able to generate $17M after all of that.

Altogether, the Houston Astros have spent $359.5M less than either the Texas Rangers of Washington Nationals since 2013.

So, where'd all that money go?

The pockets of the greedy ownership.

If your not the Yankees, Red Sox, or Dodgers you love this model. Tank and save tens of millions, get good and increase spending to where it should be.  Rinse Repeat and save ten of millions again.

[POR]

14 minutes ago, theocean said:

I posted this in another thread - but the Astros haven't spent any of that "saved" money.

According to spotrac - here's the payrolls from 2013-2019 for Dallas, DC, and Houston. Houston is the 5th largest metro area in the country. Dallas has about half a million more people, DC has about half a million less.

I calculated the average payroll between Dallas and DC and compared it to Houston's payroll for that year. The row at the bottom of the chart shows how much less Houston spent that year in comparison to the average of their closest metropolitan area teams.

From 2013-2018, the Houston Astros spent $376.5M less than their closest metropolitan-sized-siblings. They finally spent more in 2019 - $17M more in payroll - after two straight 100+ win seasons, a World Series win, and three playoff appearances. But, I'd expect a team to be able to generate $17M after all of that.

Altogether, the Houston Astros have spent $359.5M less than either the Texas Rangers of Washington Nationals since 2013.

So, where'd all that money go?

The Astros are paying both Vetlander and Greinke. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, POR said:

The Astros are paying both Vetlander and Greinke. 

They got money back in both of those deals. (34M reported)

[Roll Tide]

11 minutes ago, POR said:

The Astros are paying both Vetlander and Greinke. 

And tha doesn't change the point ....Payroll is about where it should be for a team with the 5th largest market. So they aren't overspending the cheapness from the lean years.

Other have argued about football academies and the like ..but they saved 80-100 million this year over last . They have all the money they need t build all the international clinics, additional development stuff, scouting, and overpaid VPs to cover the next 20-30 years.

They don't need to be stupid cheap to accomplish anything 

[theocean]

16 minutes ago, POR said:

The Astros are paying both Vetlander and Greinke. 

Yes, they are. They are also included in those numbers. Like Corn said, the Astros got back a significant amount of money in those deals.

[Frobby]

31 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

The pockets of the greedy ownership.

If your not the Yankees, Red Sox, or Dodgers you love this model. Tank and save tens of millions, get good and increase spending to where it should be.  Rinse Repeat and save ten of millions again.

So the Astros have had a fantastic team the last three years and you’re suggesting their ownership is motivated by greed?    They had the 8th highest payroll, not exactly pinching pennies if you ask me.    

[Roll Tide]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So the Astros have had a fantastic team the last three years and you’re suggesting their ownership is motivated by greed?    They had the 8th highest payroll, not exactly pinching pennies if you ask me.    

Did you read and understand my post or those that lead up to it? I'm talking about the competitive cycle. No one is saying there payroll isn't in line now. But are they overspending the $300 million that they saved during the "rebuilding years" .

Another poster shared a model showing that they weren't.

 

 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Did you read and understand my post or those that lead up to it? I'm talking about the competitive cycle. No one is saying there payroll isn't in line now. But are they overspending the $300 million that they saved during the "rebuilding years" .

Another poster shared a model showing that they weren't.

I don’t completely buy his logic.   But I have to hit the road now, and don’t have time to get into the reasons why.    Let’s just say the Astros have had 5 straight winning seasons, three of which generated 100+ wins, and they are well positioned for the foreseeable future.     I don’t see their model as tank, have a few good seasons, then tank again.    They were trying to get sustainably good.    Only time will tell if they achieved that, but so far, so good.    

[Enjoy Terror]

1 hour ago, theocean said:

So, where'd all that money go?

Uh it’s profit. Why do they need to spend all the money they’ve saved? They brought their city the best baseball team in the league, maintain a high payroll, and turn a profit for the owners.

I don’t understand the need to be semantic about “well he said he’d spend every dollar he saved, BUT he lied and didn’t spend EVERY dollar and I can prove it!!”

You guys have this weird fixation on baseball being an altruistic charity of sorts when literally no business in this country is run on that principle. They all budget, they all scrimp, they all cut corners. At the end of the day the Astros still delivered the best product, so what do you care? If the Orioles win the World Series with $150M payroll are you going to write a nasty letter saying you’re boycotting the celebration because “you could’ve spent $200M”?

[DirtyBird]

10 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Nice contribution

 

Thank you. I thought it might help the discussion.

[theocean]

1 hour ago, Enjoy Terror said:

Uh it’s profit. Why do they need to spend all the money they’ve saved? They brought their city the best baseball team in the league, maintain a high payroll, and turn a profit for the owners.

I don’t understand the need to be semantic about “well he said he’d spend every dollar he saved, BUT he lied and didn’t spend EVERY dollar and I can prove it!!”

You guys have this weird fixation on baseball being an altruistic charity of sorts when literally no business in this country is run on that principle. They all budget, they all scrimp, they all cut corners. At the end of the day the Astros still delivered the best product, so what do you care? If the Orioles win the World Series with $150M payroll are you going to write a nasty letter saying you’re boycotting the celebration because “you could’ve spent $200M”?

I think you're missing the point, especially with the bolded comment. No one is saying they expect a team to spend all of its money every year.

To start, teams play in taxpayer funded stadiums. Minute Maid Park specially was built with $180M in public funds, which was 68% of the total cost. So, no, it's not like a typical corporation. There's an expectation that a baseball team holds up to their side of the bargain. There's an expectation that the team is supposed to provide an economic stimulus in return for that taxpayer money. 

You're starting to see cities resist new stadium deals - or the Olympics for that matter- because they realize its a raw deal for them. 

Second, baseball is an entertainment product. People can choose to spend their money on what entertains them. And, people are starting to realize that paying a lot of money to watch a crappy team while a rich guy gets richer isn't entertainment for them.

 

[webbrick2010]

I really don't see how the Orioles can work the Houston Astros / Chicago Cubs model

Both of those teams are major markets and when they built up their young core they than made their playoff push by making significant FA signings.

Baltimore is a small (and declining) market and the Angelos family does not have deep pockets

It's great that they are building up the system and getting interested in the international market

but the Villar release is just a precursor to how they will fail to achieve the Astros/Cubs success because the Angelos family will never support a top 10 payroll.

Hopefully the get sold and the sooner the better.