Adley so far: 0-8, 1 walk, 5 Ks

[makoman]

52 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

I posed this question around draft time, but what if he's Joey Bart?  Bart is obviously still a very highly regarded prospect, but I think it's safe to say that if Adley's 2020 season mirrors Bart's 2019 then people will be concerned and disappointed.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bart--000joe

 

Fangraphs still has Bart as the #10 prospect and 60 FV (same as AR), and he had a 163 wRC+ in the Eastern League (in very limited time, yes). That's not Rutschman's ideal outcome starting today at #5, but people need to understand that player development isn't always ideal and that's far from a worst case.

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Literally they could have put names on a dartboard and had better success. Can you imagine if the internet and the Hangout existed back then. I'd love to do one of my expose on what was going on back then. I'm trying to think of contacts who would have been around, even in the media but that's a long time ago now. Hell, I was 13 an thought everything the Orioles did was right. Haha.

Of course in my defense they had been to the Playoffs six times and had three World Series appearances with two wins during that lifetime, so I had something to work with back then!

I may put together a longer post on this later, but I've done a little research on the Orioles drafts over the years.  I was under the assumption that prior to about 1980 they had this development system that was just humming along.  Producing talent at a prodigious rate.

But it was kind of feast (a little) and famine (a lot).  From 1965, when the draft started, until 1986, they drafted these seven players:

'67 Grich/Baylor
'68 Bumbry
'73 Flanagan/Murray
'78 Cal/Boddicker

But after that... nothing.  The 8th best player they drafted and signed in those 22 years was Storm Davis. 9th-best was Rich Dauer. 10th best, I don't even know, some reliever or platoon guy who totaled like five wins in his career.

By the way, an average Orioles draft (1965-2013) sees six players make the majors (maybe five after you take out guys who didn't sign), and roughly 21 wins in career value.  '83 is the only year that nobody made the majors.  2nd-lowest was a tie between '74, '81, '82, and '86 with just three.  From '81-86 they only had 12 drafted players appear in the majors at all, and that includes Cecil Fielder and Walt Weiss who didn't sign.  And from '80-86 they got a grand total of 7.7 wins from the draft.

[baltfan]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Then he is.

All you can do is pick the best player available given the data you have and try and develop him.

I loved CJ Abrams but have to admit I wasn't confident he would be better.  I just hope our guys didn't screw this up.  And before anyone says this guy was a consensus one so they didn't screw up, they have far more information than we have.  It's their job to get it right, especially 1:1.  The last 1:1 position player failure was Moniak, before that it was Matt Bush (Beckham was a disappointment).  Most teams get it at least sort of right.  

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, baltfan said:

It's those 5k's in 9PA that keep sticking with me.  The guy has only put the ball in play 3 times.

I wouldn't stress over 9 PAs in the spring training no matter what he did good or bad. It's still 9 PAs. Hopefully he'll get off to a hot start this season and put any concerns behind.

[interloper]

The good news about Adley, if anyone's actually worried (you shouldn't be) is that we have a proper development plan in place throughout every level of the organization, we have technology, we have experts in their fields here, we have every coach pulling on the same rope. If there's talent in there that isn't coming to the surface right away, I'm confident we can actually get it out of him. 

We're not putting ourselves immediately behind the 8-ball from the jump like we've been for the past 30 years. 

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Then he is.

All you can do is pick the best player available given the data you have and try and develop him.

Rutschman was the consensus #1 overall pick.  The O's took him there.  It's the pick everyone expected them to make.  No matter how the rest of his career goes that was the pick to make.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I may put together a longer post on this later, but I've done a little research on the Orioles drafts over the years.  I was under the assumption that prior to about 1980 they had this development system that was just humming along.  Producing talent at a prodigious rate.

But it was kind of feast (a little) and famine (a lot).  From 1965, when the draft started, until 1986, they drafted these seven players:

'67 Grich/Baylor
'68 Bumbry
'73 Flanagan/Murray
'78 Cal/Boddicker

But after that... nothing.  The 8th best player they drafted and signed in those 22 years was Storm Davis. 9th-best was Rich Dauer. 10th best, I don't even know, some reliever or platoon guy who totaled like five wins in his career.

By the way, an average Orioles draft (1965-2013) sees six players make the majors (maybe five after you take out guys who didn't sign), and roughly 21 wins in career value.  '83 is the only year that nobody made the majors.  2nd-lowest was a tie between '74, '81, '82, and '86 with just three.  From '81-86 they only had 12 drafted players appear in the majors at all, and that includes Cecil Fielder and Walt Weiss who didn't sign.  And from '80-86 they got a grand total of 7.7 wins from the draft.

It does seem like the Orioles were masters of the pre draft free agent signings signing guys like Brooks, Palmer, Powell, Blair, McNally, Davey Johnson, Andy Etchebarren, Tom Phoebus (Key player used in the Dopson trade), Eddie Watt and Curt Blefary (key player used in Cueller trade). All of whom were key players during their resurgence in the late 60s, early 70s.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It does seem like the Orioles were masters of the pre draft free agent signings signing guys like Brooks, Palmer, Powell, Blair, McNally, Davey Johnson, Andy Etchebarren, Tom Phoebus (Key player used in the Dopson trade), Eddie Watt and Curt Blefary (key player used in Cueller trade). All of whom were key players during their resurgence in the late 60s, early 70s.

They also pulled off many great trades that brought in Frank Robinson, Mike Cuellar, Ken Singleton, Rick Dempsey, Scott McGregor, Tippy Martinez and others.   Seemed like almost all the guys we acquired got better once they put on a Baltimore uniform.    Especially any pitcher that suddenly had Brooks, Belanger and Blair behind them.  

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

They also pulled off many great trades that brought in Frank Robinson, Mike Cuellar, Ken Singleton, Rick Dempsey, Scott McGregor, Tippy Martinez and others.   Seemed like almost all the guys we acquired got better once they put on a Baltimore uniform.    Especially any pitcher that suddenly had Brooks, Belanger and Blair behind them.  

What's that like?

[Sessh]

It's too early, but considering he was a 1-1, I expected better to this point. We'll see. I wasn't crazy about the pick and was probably the only one on here that wouldn't have been disappointed if we took Vaughn. After the season, we'll have a better idea on AR. As a 1-1, I expect big things from him out of the gate though.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, interloper said:

What's that like?

I took it for granted.   I took a lot of things for granted in those days.    The late ‘80’s were a total shock to my system.     I’d just assumed the Orioles would contend forever and everything would continue to go right for them.     Imagine being an Orioles fan after the 1983 season.    You’ve had a great team for 20+ years, won three World Series and had eight playoff appearances in that time, and you have a 27-year old Eddie Murray and a 23-year old Cal Ripken.     Why in the world would you expect anything other than that the team would continue to be great?    But as Drungo pointed out, the ship was rotting below the water line.   

[Legend_Of_Joey]

Just singled in the 9th as a pinch hitter.

Resume breathing.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I took it for granted.   I took a lot of things for granted in those days.    The late ‘80’s were a total shock to my system.     I’d just assumed the Orioles would contend forever and everything would continue to go right for them.     Imagine being an Orioles fan after the 1983 season.    You’ve had a great team for 20+ years, won three World Series and had eight playoff appearances in that time, and you have a 27-year old Eddie Murray and a 23-year old Cal Ripken.     Why in the world would you expect anything other than that the team would continue to be great?    But as Drungo pointed out, the ship was rotting below the water line.   

And little did we know because we didn't follow that kind of stuff back then to the degree that we do now. I can remember thinking Bill Swaggerty was going to be the next great starter because that's just what the Orioles did, and that was produce starters. Who but the Orioles would take a middling pitcher like Steve Stone and watch him win the Cy Young award?

Other than perhaps hearing about the #1 pick, we never heard anything else about the drafts. I think Mark Corey was the first #1 pick I had heard about and thought he would be a stud. Tony Chavez would become another Dennis Martines, right? How in the world does a guy named Drungo Hazewood, who slashed .261/.355/.485/.840 with 28 bombs in AA at 20-years of age, not become a star? 

 

[Legend_Of_Joey]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

How in the world does a guy named Drungo Hazewood, who slashed .261/.355/.485/.840 with 28 bombs in AA at 20-years of age, not become a star? 

 

Started spending too much time on here and not enough in the batting cages.

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

And little did we know because we didn't follow that kind of stuff back then to the degree that we do now. I can remember thinking Bill Swaggerty was going to be the next great starter because that's just what the Orioles did, and that was produce starters. Who but the Orioles would take a middling pitcher like Steve Stone and watch him win the Cy Young award?

Other than perhaps hearing about the #1 pick, we never heard anything else about the drafts. I think Mark Corey was the first #1 pick I had heard about and thought he would be a stud. Tony Chavez would become another Dennis Martines, right? How in the world does a guy named Drungo Hazewood, who slashed .261/.355/.485/.840 with 28 bombs in AA at 20-years of age, not become a star? 

 

Scrolling down the list of Orioles no. 1 picks, I think the first one I was aware of on or near draft day was Chris Myers in 1987.     That was the first time In team history the Orioles  had a top 9 draft pick. Until then, the team was always good and fans didn’t give the draft a second thought.   Myers, I remember, was considered a surprising choice.     I recall he was an outfielder who had converted to pitcher.   He never made the majors.   

I knew almost nothing about the Orioles’ minor league system until I discovered Orioles Hangout in 2001 or 2002.    Erik Bedard was one of the big stars of the system then, and Matt Riley was on the mend.    Not a ton of talent in the system at that point, especially on offense.