Orioles' last 5 tool player?

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Redskins Rick said:

Better Healthcare.

Check this out:

Average Life Expectancy

1940 = 60.8 (Male)  and 65.2 (Female)

1950 = 65.5                      71.1

1960 = 66.6                      73.1

1970 = 67.1                      74.7

1980 =  70.0                     77.8

1990 = 71.8                      78.9

1998 = 73.8                      79.5

 

I think 1900 the average was about 45, although the distribution was very different because the infant and child mortality rate was many, many times higher than today.  So if you got to 20 you had a good shot at 60 or older.

[Redskins Rick]

17 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think 1900 the average was about 45, although the distribution was very different because the infant and child mortality rate was many, many times higher than today.  So if you got to 20 you had a good shot at 60 or older.

Pretty spot on.

1900 = 46.3 and 48.3

 

 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, MurphDogg said:

5.8 rWAR and 6.2 fWAR in 2018 is not "only above average".

He had an off year last year, worse than even his age 19 season on a per game basis, but he is still better than 50/50 to make the Hall. Shoo-in is a bit strong since injury or tragedy can strike anyone, but if he even has a few more seasons like 2013-18, he will be well on his way.

There are already players in the Hall who had less value than Manny does today (Kell, Traynor, Lindstrom).  I think that as we progress in time the standards for the Hall will go up significantly.  If you played in the 1920s and 1930s a career of 45 or 50 WAR was very likely to get you in the Hall.  Today we have a number of players not even on the steroid list who aren't in with totals of 60 or even 70. 

If Manny flames out and just averages 2-3 wins a year for the next 10 years he'll end up with a career value over 60.0.  The average HOF 3B has 68 WAR. Logically, he should go in by the standards of today.  But I fear that the voters won't be able to cope with the expansion time bomb, and will push the average up.  I know a lot of folks are in favor of higher standards, but that will also serve to highlight the disconnect between turning away guys like Scott Rolen and Evan Longoria and possibly even Manny depending on how things work out, and the fact that vastly lesser players are in.

Of course it's pretty likely Manny ends up north or 70 or even 80 or higher.

Here's another way to look at this.  Career value among third basemen through Manny's age:

1. Eddie Mathews, 45
2. Manny, 37
3. Brett, 36
4. Santo, 36
5. Longoria, 30
6. Wright, 29
7. Schmidt, 27
8. Clift, 27
9. Baker, 27
10. Beltre, 27

Longoria is still active, I suppose he could still make a pretty strong case.  Wright was destroyed by injuries around 30.  Clift got testicular mumps (yikes), was injured in a fall from a horse, WWII happened, and he was pretty much done at 30.  Everyone else is in the Hall, or will be.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

Brook being the humble man he was, said that Manny was a better defender at third and could do things at third that he couldnt even dream of doing.

 

I'm pretty sure he was right.  The game improves all the time.  I'd expect the best players today to be objectively better than the best players of 50 or 100 years ago.

[MurphDogg]

26 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

There are already players in the Hall who had less value than Manny does today (Kell, Traynor, Lindstrom).  I think that as we progress in time the standards for the Hall will go up significantly.  If you played in the 1920s and 1930s a career of 45 or 50 WAR was very likely to get you in the Hall.  Today we have a number of players not even on the steroid list who aren't in with totals of 60 or even 70. 

If Manny flames out and just averages 2-3 wins a year for the next 10 years he'll end up with a career value over 60.0.  The average HOF 3B has 68 WAR. Logically, he should go in by the standards of today.  But I fear that the voters won't be able to cope with the expansion time bomb, and will push the average up.  I know a lot of folks are in favor of higher standards, but that will also serve to highlight the disconnect between turning away guys like Scott Rolen and Evan Longoria and possibly even Manny depending on how things work out, and the fact that vastly lesser players are in.

Of course it's pretty likely Manny ends up north or 70 or even 80 or higher.

Here's another way to look at this.  Career value among third basemen through Manny's age:

1. Eddie Mathews, 45
2. Manny, 37
3. Brett, 36
4. Santo, 36
5. Longoria, 30
6. Wright, 29
7. Schmidt, 27
8. Clift, 27
9. Baker, 27
10. Beltre, 27

Longoria is still active, I suppose he could still make a pretty strong case.  Wright was destroyed by injuries around 30.  Clift got testicular mumps (yikes), was injured in a fall from a horse, WWII happened, and he was pretty much done at 30.  Everyone else is in the Hall, or will be.

 

Evan Longoria seems unlikely to make the Hall, unless his career inexplicably ends as strongly as it began. 3 Gold Gloves, 3 All Star appearances, Rookie of the Year, top 11 in MVP voting 4 times. Will probably fall short of 400 homers and 2500 hits (he is at 297/1703 through his age 33 season), played in a small market. He is unlikely to reach that average rWAR of 68, he is currently at 56, and has accrued 4.2 rWAR over his last 2 season. He accrued 27.2 rWAR over his first four seasons (through age 25) and 28.8 in the eight seasons since. 

Longoria is a little similar to Andruw Jones minus the highlight reel defense, both burned brightly and looked like sure Hall of Famers at 25 before settling into solid to great regulars for the next 5 years. 

The fact that Scott Rolen only got 10 percent of the vote his first year with 70.1 rWAR, 8 Gold Gloves and 7 All Star appearances makes me think that Longoria doesn't have much of a shot unless a Veterans Committee comes along and sweeps him in with guys like Bobby Abreu, Jim Edmonds, and Kenny Lofton who got minimal Hall of Fame votes but meet the historical Hall of Fame standards.

[DrungoHazewood]

20 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Evan Longoria seems unlikely to make the Hall, unless his career inexplicably ends as strongly as it began. 3 Gold Gloves, 3 All Star appearances, Rookie of the Year, top 11 in MVP voting 4 times. Will probably fall short of 400 homers and 2500 hits (he is at 297/1703 through his age 33 season), played in a small market. He is unlikely to reach that average rWAR of 68, he is currently at 56, and has accrued 4.2 rWAR over his last 2 season. He accrued 27.2 rWAR over his first four seasons (through age 25) and 28.8 in the eight seasons since. 

Longoria is a little similar to Andruw Jones minus the highlight reel defense, both burned brightly and looked like sure Hall of Famers at 25 before settling into solid to great regulars for the next 5 years. 

The fact that Scott Rolen only got 10 percent of the vote his first year with 70.1 rWAR, 8 Gold Gloves and 7 All Star appearances makes me think that Longoria doesn't have much of a shot unless a Veterans Committee comes along and sweeps him in with guys like Bobby Abreu, Jim Edmonds, and Kenny Lofton who got minimal Hall of Fame votes but meet the historical Hall of Fame standards.

There's strange quirks of the BBWAA voting even today that I don't fully grasp.  Like why Scott Rolen got no support.  And then there's the fact that nobody is ever officially excluded, you're always a Vet's Committee candidate as long as you played 10 years.  So who knows what things will look like in 20 or 30 years.

Evan Longoria is just tremendously better than Pie Traynor, and Pie Traynor used to sometimes be called the best third baseman of all time.

I guess I should really try to remember that "Hall of Fame Standards" aren't really a thing.  All along the Hall has included guys like Ray Schalk and Bill Mazeroski while keeping Alan Trammell and Bert Blyleven waiting for decades.

[LA2]

Back to the topic of 5-tool Orioles, how about Eric Davis and occasionally Brady? What were Davis' defense and arm like?

[spiritof66]

On 5/29/2020 at 12:02 PM, Redskins Rick said:

Who was the last 5 tool player the Orioles drafted?

I know Hammonds was said to be a 5 tools guy, and he had a decent career, not sure, he panned out as a true 5 tool guy, but the expectation and hype was there.

Wieters had defense and bat production in college, but no speed.

Mancini was bat only

Sisco was bat only

I guess Manny was the last true 5 guy the Orioles drafted. While not a burner, he had enough speed to turn many a single into doubles, and score from second,

 

And turn singles and doubles into outs. But I agree Manny had enough speed to be a five-tool guy.

[Can_of_corn]

20 minutes ago, LA2 said:

Back to the topic of 5-tool Orioles, how about Eric Davis and occasionally Brady? What were Davis' defense and arm like?

 

[Redskins Rick]

8 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

I agree about Brady like you mentioned.

I dont remember too much of the 1998 year that Davis had here, stats look good on paper. I was working 2 jobs, raising a family, getting not a lot of sleep, baseball entertainment was lost in the priorities of being an adult.

[ChuckS]

20 hours ago, LA2 said:

Back to the topic of 5-tool Orioles, how about Eric Davis and occasionally Brady? What were Davis' defense and arm like?

I recall Brady's arm being pretty average.  Career batting average was .256.  Of course more importantly he had a .362 career OBP which is part of the reason he was one of the best Orioles ever.  Brady had the speed, power, and defense certainly. 

It's tough to find a true five tool player.  Even with Mike Trout, his arm has always been considered average at best. 

Manny had one year where he stole 20 bases, but he never had more than average foot speed. 

Roberto Alomar is the closest player I can think of out of O's I've seen play in my lifetime.  Might be able to argue that he didn't have the great power tool but he was good for 15-20 home runs a season in the prime of his career.  

[Mr. Chewbacca Jr.]

On 6/2/2020 at 12:51 PM, DrungoHazewood said:

It's funny how Cal made a career out of never, ever saying anything the slightest bit controversial.  He slips up once out of thousands of interviews and we will never let him live it down.

Hahaha Baltimore fans can be insane. And what he said wasn't even controversial - Adrian Beltre is a first ballot HOF. 93.6 WAR to Brooks' 78.4. Two amazing players.

[Mr. Chewbacca Jr.]

41 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

I recall Brady's arm being pretty average.  Career batting average was .256.  Of course more importantly he had a .362 career OBP which is part of the reason he was one of the best Orioles ever.  Brady had the speed, power, and defense certainly. 

It's tough to find a true five tool player.  Even with Mike Trout, his arm has always been considered average at best. 

Manny had one year where he stole 20 bases, but he never had more than average foot speed. 

Roberto Alomar is the closest player I can think of out of O's I've seen play in my lifetime.  Might be able to argue that he didn't have the great power tool but he was good for 15-20 home runs a season in the prime of his career.  

I guess it's how you define "five tool player." Here's a pretty interesting article from Bill James where he attempts to identify "successful five-tool players." He lists Grady Sizemore and Corey Patterson as "unsuccessful five-tool" guys:

https://www.billjamesonline.com/five_tool_players/

Like you mentioned, Roberto Alomar would be it for the O's.

Edited June 3, 2020 by Mr. Chewbacca Jr.
Link

[BohKnowsBmore]

3 hours ago, Mr. Chewbacca Jr. said:

I guess it's how you define "five tool player." Here's a pretty interesting article from Bill James where he attempts to identify "successful five-tool players." He lists Grady Sizemore and Corey Patterson as "unsuccessful five-tool" guys:

https://www.billjamesonline.com/five_tool_players/

Like you mentioned, Roberto Alomar would be it for the O's.

This brings up a definitional question... is a five tool guy someone who is outstanding in each area or someone who is average-or-better (at MLB level). The latter may be more how it’s used for prospect evaluation, whereas the former is more from a historical look-back. 

[Redskins Rick]

8 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

This brings up a definitional question... is a five tool guy someone who is outstanding in each area or someone who is average-or-better (at MLB level). The latter may be more how it’s used for prospect evaluation, whereas the former is more from a historical look-back. 

Another viewpoint. I think 5 tools was mainly used as prospect evaluation. If you look at current players Trout get rated as an 8 tool guy.

http://fivetoolschool.com/what-are-the-five-tools-in-baseball/

Quote

The Five Tools in Baseball Are:

1. Speed
2. Arm Strength
3. Fielding Ability
4. Hitting for Average
5. Hitting for Power

This is what scouts are looking for in a player