Who do you want at 39?

[UpstateNYfan]

3 hours ago, tntoriole said:

He flies open quite a bit...fastball command will be the first and only order of business.  97 doesn’t help hitting the backstop...lol. 

Not sure. It's hard for a batter to be comfortable with a 97 fastball coming at you. At that point it's not only hitting, it's survival.

[Greg Pappas]

1 hour ago, Jammer7 said:

I like what they have done so far. I had not seen the video of Kjerstad from 2020, and I like what I saw. I have no problem with his swing at all. The leg kick, meh, if it works for him, fine. But he looks like he was recognizing some pitches better. His power is top of the charts to all fields. Westburg is a talented kid whose best days are ahead of him. Not a true comp, but he reminds me some of DJ Lemahieu, with a good bit more speed and athleticism. 

I think they do save somewhere in the neighborhood of 2 million, maybe a bit more, on Kjerstad. That is just a speculative guess. Westburg is probably not much below slot, if at all. Elias said they were looking at some pitchers at 30, but they were selected before they picked, Bitsko perhaps.

So, at 39, I take Fulton. That is not because he is the best player available, though he would have been if healthy. I think he will be over slot, but not as much as Wilcox or maybe Kelley. That might leave him out there for another team to take, so grab him now. Wilcox and/or Kelley will likely be there at 74. Wilcox might be in the top 5 players picked in 2021 in he returns to UGA. His leverage is strong, but not as much of a track record as a starter hurts him a bit.

Chris McMahon is very interesting, and I bet he's gone in round 2. You could do well to go that route, but may lose Fulton. 

Tanner Witt and Masyn Winn are two more high end HS guys that are interesting, but I have not seen much video there.

Cole Henry (LSU) is another college arm I like, though there is a history of elbow issues. He is a sophomore, so he can go back to school. JT Ginn is out there as well.

We don't know what their bonus demands are, but Elias does. This may turn out to be an incredible haul. If they come away with Dax Fulton and Chris Wilcox, I would be elated to have four first round talents.

If Elias walked away from the draft with Kjerstad, Wilcox, Fulton and Westburg, I'd like that, especially at this point, BUT still believe we would have done better going with Austin Martin at 2, Westburg at 30 and maybe McMahon at 39 (or Fulton).  I guess I see it like I'd rather have Martin than Kjerstad and Wilcox, but if we get two of these pitchers at this point, I'd feel better than I do now.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Greg Pappas said:

Were I betting, I think I'd guess Dax Fulton, HS LHP from OK.

Fulton is the guy I'd go for if it's all about ceiling at this pick. I think the risk though is pretty great an that McMahon has a sold floor and is not that far from being ready. Not sure Orioles fans can wait 2-3 more years of losing 100+ games. The college heavy route give them a chance to be competitive again in 3-4 years.

[Number5]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Fulton is the guy I'd go for if it's all about ceiling at this pick. I think the risk though is pretty great an that McMahon has a sold floor and is not that far from being ready. Not sure Orioles fans can wait 2-3 more years of losing 100+ games. The college heavy route give them a chance to be competitive again in 3-4 years.

Tony, why are you higher on Fulton and McMahon than Kelley and Wilcox?  What are your concerns on the latter two?  

[Greg Pappas]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Fulton is the guy I'd go for if it's all about ceiling at this pick. I think the risk though is pretty great an that McMahon has a sold floor and is not that far from being ready. Not sure Orioles fans can wait 2-3 more years of losing 100+ games. The college heavy route give them a chance to be competitive again in 3-4 years.

From MLB.com: 

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McMahon was a solid high school product outside of Philadelphia who was No. 100 on MLB Pipeline's Draft Top 200 as the 2017 Draft rolled around. The former three-sport standout (soccer and basketball) slid in the Draft, going in the 33rd round, and opted to go to Miami instead. A knee injury cut short his freshman year, and his sophomore year was up-and-down as the Hurricanes' Saturday starter. But he was one of the best performers for USA Baseball's Collegiate National Team, something that carried over to the start of his junior season.

The right-hander has more than enough stuff to succeed as a starter at the next level. His fastball is up to 95-96 mph consistently, with late action on it down in the zone, and he was up to 98 mph this fall. He knows how to spin a breaking ball, but it gets caught in between being a curve and slider, looking more like the former. He has a very good feel for his changeup that can miss bats and get ground-ball outs.

When he's on, McMahon combines athleticism, stuff, feel for pitching and command to make him a complete package. With an arm action that can be a little deep, he can get flat and gets hit more than he should. He got out front more consistently and didn’t leave pitches up for Team USA and early this spring, solidifying his spot as one of the more solid college arms in the class.

 

[Tony-OH]

18 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Tony, why are you higher on Fulton and McMahon than Kelley and Wilcox?  What are your concerns on the latter two?  

Fastball movement when it comes to Kelley and Wilcox. Both have true fastball, too true for my liking. Fulton I'm going off of what I read pre injury. I just like the entire package of McMahon, who only allowed 4 home runs in his college career. 

[Greg Pappas]

Here are some notes from Keith Law ($) on some of the prospects we're discussing at 39. The number beforehand is his personal pre-draft.ranking:

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14. Cole Wilcox, RHP, Georgia, Age: 20

Wilcox was a first-round talent out of high school in 2018, but was looking for more than teams would pay and chose to go to Georgia, where he’s now age-eligible as a sophomore and offers one of the biggest arms among starters. Wilcox has hit 100 mph and will often sit 94-96 mph, with a slider that flashes plus in the mid-80s and a changeup that’s solid but that the Bulldogs rarely called. His fastball can play down a little from its velocity, as his arm is trackable and hitters see it well. His arm can be a tick late, but he repeats it well enough and has shown he can hold velo deep into starts. He has No. 1 or 2 starter upside, but would need a fair amount of development help to get there, and right now projects more as a No. 4 who leaves you wanting a bit more.

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28. J.T. Ginn, RHP, Mississippi State, Age: 21

Ginn is draft-eligible as a sophomore because he’s already 21, and he entered this year as a probable top-10 pick just two years after turning down a seven-figure bonus from the Dodgers, who took him with the 30th overall pick in 2018. Ginn can show two dominant pitches in his fastball and slider, both of which can be 70s on the right night, and in brief showings in the fall he flashed a plus changeup as well, all of which together would have made him one of the top two or three starters in the class. Unfortunately for Ginn, he blew out his elbow this spring and required Tommy John surgery after he threw just three innings in one start, which may confirm previous concerns about the head-whack in his delivery. He might be a reliever, but the chance for three plus pitches in a starter is going to attract a lot of suitors even with the elbow surgery.

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31. Jared Kelley, RHP, Refugio (Texas) HS, Age: 18

Kelley remains one of the top four high school pitchers in the class, although he lost a little ground this spring before his school’s season ended. Kelley is the prototypical Texas prep pitcher, big and hard-throwing, listed at 6-foot-3, 215 pounds, but heavier than that when he pitched this spring. He’s been up to 98 mph with a plus changeup but in the past has had trouble finding a consistent breaking ball, although he had at least one outing this spring where he flashed an average slider. His arm is very quick and his delivery works well, contributing to a history of throwing strikes. He’s going to have to work on his conditioning in pro ball and could use a better slider to profile as a mid-rotation starter.

 

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33. Tanner Witt, RHP, Episcopal (Texas) HS, Age: 17

Witt has run up boards this spring as a projectable, athletic kid who’s already 90-95 mph with huge spin on his breaking ball. He’s 6-foot-6 and gets on top of the ball well from a high 3/4 slot that drives the ball down into the zone, and his delivery works well enough that you can project him to start. He needs innings and work on a third pitch, but he’s so athletic that teams interested in rolling the dice on a high-ceiling prep arm are looking at him in the late first round.

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45. Chris McMahon, RHP, Miami, Age: 21

McMahon is the typical late first-round/early second-round college right-hander, a strike-thrower with three pitches, a pretty good delivery, and nothing plus or even consistently above-average. His best pitch is his fastball, which can reach the mid-90s but sits more 91-95 mph, and his breaking ball is slurvy to the point where he may be better off going to a true slider. He hadn’t missed a lot of bats for the Hurricanes until this spring, when he punched out 38 percent of the batters he faced in his four starts, including 9 strikeouts in six innings against Florida. There’s still untapped potential here, and teams that value deliveries and reliability will probably look at him in the late first or Competitive Balance A rounds.

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55. Carson Montgomery, RHP, Windermere (Fla.) HS, Age: 17

Montgomery took a step forward this spring before the season ended, sitting 90-94 mph as a starter with tighter break on his curveball, and looked like he might get into the comp round rather than heading to Florida State. The 6-foot-2, 200-pound right-hander won’t turn 18 until September but is already well-developed physically. His hips are slow to rotate and he doesn’t always get online to the plate, often landing too closed to get to his glove side. He has a chance for a three-pitch mix that would make him a No. 4 starter with some delivery help and improved command.

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67. Dax Fulton, LHP, Mustang (Okla.) HS, Age: 18

Fulton had a chance to be the first high school lefty off the board, but he had Tommy John surgery in the fall and while he’s still likely to be drafted, it might be with someone’s second or third pick. Fulton is 6-foot-6 and works in the low 90s with the makings of a plus curveball, but has a very high-effort delivery that puts a lot of stress on his arm. There’s definite upside here, assuming his stuff returns, but also real risk if his arm action stays the same.

 

[Moose Milligan]

I'd really like us to get an arm.  I can see reason to be excited with any of the pitchers mentioned here.  And I'd like to see us go pitching heavy from here on out.

[Number5]

33 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Fastball movement when it comes to Kelley and Wilcox. Both have true fastball, too true for my liking. Fulton I'm going off of what I read pre injury. I just like the entire package of McMahon, who only allowed 4 home runs in his college career. 

Thanks, Tony.

I've got to say Kelley looks really enticing to me.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-draft-prospect-jared-kelley-facts-to-know

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• Kelley, a 6-foot-3, 215-pound right-hander, opened the 2020 season as the top-ranked high school pitcher in the country. He was only able to get 12 innings in for the season before things were shut down due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but in those 12 innings, 34 of the 36 outs he got came on strikeouts, and he didn't yield a hit. He was named the 2020 Gatorade Player of the Year in Texas.

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• Kelley is among a trio of highly-regarded high school pitchers in this year's Draft, along with Mick Abel and Nick Bitsko. Kelley has the best velocity of the group, with his fastball touching 99 mph and regularly sitting around 96 mph with run. Kelley also features a strong changeup with good fade and sink, as well as an ever-improving slider.

 

[Greg Pappas]

Here are some notes from Jim Callis, Jonathan Mayo and the guys at MLB Pipeline on the same group of prospects as Law: (Notice the order is different, per their rankings.)

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12. Jared Kelley, RHP, Refugio (Texas) HS, Age: 18

Refugio (Texas) High never has produced a drafted player, though that's about to change in a big way in 2020. Kelley entered the year rated as the nation's top high school prospect and is regarded as Texas' best prep pitcher since Jameson Taillon went No. 2 overall in 2010. He repeatedly dominated on the showcase circuit last summer, including an Area Code Games performance that some scouts said was the best in the long history of the event.

Few pitchers can create as much velocity with as little effort as Kelley, who can pump 93-96 mph fastballs and reach 98 with some running action. He already owns an advanced changeup with fade and sink, and he's willing to throw it in any count. His third-best pitch at the moment is a hard slurve in the low 80s that lacks consistency but should develop into at least a solid offering.

Kelley combines his now stuff with feel for pitching. The Texas recruit pounds the strike zone and has the look of a frontline starter who could reach the big leagues before he turns 21. His strong, physically mature frame and the ease of his delivery should allow him to log plenty of innings.

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23. Cole Wilcox, RHP, Georgia, Age: 20

Not only does Georgia have a candidate for the No. 1 overall pick in Emerson Hancock, but it also has a second potential first-round arm in Wilcox, something the Bulldogs haven't been able to claim since Derek Lilliquist and Cris Carpenter went in the top 14 picks in 1987. Wilcox also drew first-round interest in 2018 and finished ahead of fellow Georgia prep products Ethan Hankins (the Indians' first-rounder that June) and Kumar Rocker (the projected No. 1 overall choice in 2021) in MLB Pipeline's final rankings. A Draft-eligible sophomore, he opened his first college season in Georgia's bullpen and moved into the weekend rotation for the final month.

Wilcox has some of the best pure stuff in the Draft. His fastball usually ranges from 92-97 mph and can reach 100 with some sink and armside run. Both of his mid-80s secondary pitches show signs of becoming plus offerings, with his fading changeup a tick more reliable than his power slider.

Though Wilcox is athletic and has a strong, durable frame, he comes with starter-versus-reliever questions. Scouts don't love his delivery, which features a low elbow and a long arm stroke that allows hitters to track the ball well out of his hand. His fastball has a history of getting hit harder than it should and he sometimes struggles to provide quality strikes.

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29. Chris McMahon, RHP, Miami, Age: 21

McMahon was a solid high school product outside of Philadelphia who was No. 100 on MLB Pipeline's Draft Top 200 as the 2017 Draft rolled around. The former three-sport standout (soccer and basketball) slid in the Draft, going in the 33rd round, and opted to go to Miami instead. A knee injury cut short his freshman year, and his sophomore year was up-and-down as the Hurricanes' Saturday starter. But he was one of the best performers for USA Baseball's Collegiate National Team, something that carried over to the start of his junior season.

The right-hander has more than enough stuff to succeed as a starter at the next level. His fastball is up to 95-96 mph consistently, with late action on it down in the zone, and he was up to 98 mph this fall. He knows how to spin a breaking ball, but it gets caught in between being a curve and slider, looking more like the former. He has a very good feel for his changeup that can miss bats and get ground-ball outs.

When he's on, McMahon combines athleticism, stuff, feel for pitching and command to make him a complete package. With an arm action that can be a little deep, he can get flat and gets hit more than he should. He got out front more consistently and didn’t leave pitches up for Team USA and early this spring, solidifying his spot as one of the more solid college arms in the class.

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34. Carson Montgomery, RHP, Windermere (Fla.) HS, Age: 17

One of the top high school right-handers in this Draft class, Montgomery committed to attend Florida State for college over two years ago. With electric stuff and a solid summer showcase circuit that included pitching in the PDP League and striking out the side in his inning of work at the Under Armour All-America Game, Montgomery very well may never make it to Tallahassee.

With a quick arm and an athletic frame, Montgomery's stuff is led by a live fastball that regularly gets up to 94-95 mph. He complements his heater with a power breaking ball that's a bit of a slider/curveball hybrid, thrown typically in the 78-80 mph range, but can get up into the low 80s at times. He doesn't need his changeup much in high school, but he does show very good feel for it, with some scouts thinking it could eventually develop into his best secondary offering.

Montgomery throws a lot of strikes, repeats his delivery fairly consistently and has a good gameplan on the mound with more polish than many hard-throwing prepsters. The Seminoles and new head coach Mike Martin Jr. would undoubtedly love to have him lead their staff for the next three years, but he could be one of the first high school arms to get drafted.

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43. Dax Fulton, LHP, Mustang (Okla.) HS, Age: 18

Last summer, Fulton battled Nate Savino (Virginia's Potomac Falls High) for the distinction of being the top-rated prep left-hander in the 2020 class. Neither will pitch in high school this spring, however, because Savino will bypass his senior season and the Draft to enroll early at Virginia and Fulton underwent Tommy John surgery in September. The latter still could be the first prep southpaw selected in June and could sneak into the supplemental first round.

Before he got hurt at the U.S. 18-and-under national team trials in August, Fulton worked with a 90-93 mph fastball that played better than its velocity because he creates steep downhill plane with his 6-foot-6 frame and high three-quarters arm slot. He's already strong and has the room to add more muscle, so he could work in the mid-90s once he regains his health. His curveball is a legitimate plus pitch with power and depth, and he shows some feel to manipulate its break.

Fulton's changeup should be an average or better offering once he spends more time developing it. For such a tall teenager, he does a nice job of keeping his long limbs in sync and throwing strikes with his entire repertoire. After verbally committing to Vanderbilt, he officially signed with Oklahoma

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44. J.T. Ginn, RHP, Mississippi State, Age: 21

The Dodgers selected Ginn 30th overall out of a Mississippi high school in 2018 but didn't have the money to meet his asking price after paying second-rounder Michael Grove an over-slot bonus. He earned Southeastern Conference freshman of the year honors in his college debut, capping his season with six scoreless innings in a College World Series start against Louisville. Projected as a likely 2020 first-rounder as a Draft-eligible sophomore, he made just one three-inning appearance this spring before requiring Tommy John surgery.

When healthy, Ginn usually deals at 91-95 mph and tops out at 97 with some of the best fastball life in the 2020 Draft, as his heater will run and sink and bore at various times. His wipeout slider can be just as difficult to hit, combining mid-80s velocity with two-plane depth. He also gets good downward action on his changeup, which shows flashes of becoming a plus offering.

Despite the movement on his pitches, Ginn controls and commands them well, giving up just 19 walks and one homer in 86 1/3 innings as a freshman. He has toned down his delivery since high school, lessening concerns that he'll wind up in the bullpen in the long run. He's athletic but already came with durability concerns after a sore arm limited him at times during the second half of the 2019 season.

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53. Tanner Witt, RHP, Episcopal (Texas) HS, Age: 17

Kevin Witt was the 28th overall pick in the 1994 Draft and hit 15 homers in five years in the big leagues. His son Tanner shows intriguing power potential as a third baseman but even more promise on the mound. One of the more projectable arms in the 2020 Draft, he could fit in the top three rounds if he's signable away from a Texas commitment -- which may not be possible.

At 6-foot-6 and 198 pounds, Witt has plenty of room to add strength and velocity, and he excited scouts by sitting at 92-93 mph and touching 95 in the final start of his truncated senior season. He usually works at 88-92 mph with his fastball, which features solid spin rates and some riding action. He also gets good spin rates on a mid-70s downer curveball that could become a plus offering once he adds more power, and he shows the aptitude to manipulate it into a harder, tighter slider.

Witt also demonstrates some feel for a changeup that he throws with fastball arm speed but arrives a bit firm in the mid-80s. He uses a high three-quarters arm slot to produce difficult angle and does a nice job of keeping his long levers in sync in his delivery. He's only scratching the surface of his potential as a pitcher and may need time to develop, but the payoff could be significant.

 

[Greg Pappas]

Out of the guys mentioned here and there, I'd prefer we didn't peg Witt at 39.  74 as an overslot? Happily.

[sylvester]

2 guys I want  Cole Wilcox, he a big kid 6'5.  Or JT Ginn, perfect spot for Ginn he just had TJ surgery.  With no minor league season he wouldn't pitch anyway.  Hopefully Ginn is really good friends with Westburg, it could help.

[Tony-OH]

15 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Thanks, Tony.

I've got to say Kelley looks really enticing to me.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-draft-prospect-jared-kelley-facts-to-know

 

There is certainly talent in Kelley. If the Orioles go that way I'm not saying it's bad, and trust me, Elias/Sig and company have much more on these guys than me. I'm risk adverse when it comes to the draft. I think it makes sense to take some risks no doubt, but in a year with limited information to go off of, I'd go with the more "sure things". But that's me.

[BohKnowsBmore]

32 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

Here are some notes from Keith Law ($) on some of the prospects we're discussing at 39. The number beforehand is his personal pre-draft.ranking:

 

 

16 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

Out of the guys mentioned here and there, I'd prefer we didn't peg Witt at 39.  74 as an overslot? Happily.

"33. Tanner Witt, RHP, Episcopal (Texas) HS, Age: 17

Witt has run up boards this spring as a projectable, athletic kid who’s already 90-95 mph with huge spin on his breaking ball. He’s 6-foot-6 and gets on top of the ball well from a high 3/4 slot that drives the ball down into the zone, and his delivery works well enough that you can project him to start. He needs innings and work on a third pitch, but he’s so athletic that teams interested in rolling the dice on a high-ceiling prep arm are looking at him in the late first round."

 

Does sound like a guy this FO may be very interested in, though, based on Law's notes.

 

Maybe Kelley @ 39, then Witt @74?

[BohKnowsBmore]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

There is certainly talent in Kelley. If the Orioles go that way I'm not saying it's bad, and trust me, Elias/Sig and company have much more on these guys than me. I'm risk adverse when it comes to the draft. I think it makes sense to take some risks no doubt, but in a year with limited information to go off of, I'd go with the more "sure things". But that's me.

Definitely a valid position, but it also provides a greater opportunity to profit off of information asymmetry, where you think you may have an advantage (whether by methods, effort, etc.).