Early 2021 Top Draft Prospects

[Sports Guy]

I’m really hoping Lawlar drops.

I worry about these power college arms whose teams abuse them.

 

[calsmanystances]

Gammons wrote a long article about the effects of COVID and the lost year on the minors and the draft. Here's a blurb from the draft portion of the article:

Begin with the draft, quasi-restored from five rounds to 20 and moved from the first week of June to the All-Star break in mid-July. It has seemed for weeks that the top of the draft was simple. Vanderbilt pitchers Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker and high school shortstops Jordan Lawlar and Marcelo Mayer were going to be atop the board, with little variance, save perhaps pool money manipulation.

“All along, we’ve been saying this draft is very weak on college position players,” said one general manager whose team has a high first-round pick. “But … we’re watching the college players playing regularly and everything seems very different. We don’t have to start the final decision processes until the first of July. Look at (Louisville catcher) Henry Davis. The way he’s come, with his power, athleticism and arm, by the time Louisville is done its season, played the ACC tournament and moved on through the regionals, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he could be the first pick in the draft.

“All of a sudden, we’re appreciating that Davis didn’t have a full 2020 season, he didn’t play in the Cape or on Team USA, this season had an uneasy start because of COVID-19 and, in a lot of regions, horrible early spring weather,” the GM continued.

https://theathletic.com/2565240/2021/05/06/gammons-the-minors-return-but-scouts-will-discover-a-drastically-altered-landscape/

 

[Frobby]

I’m reviving this old post as a public service:

 

[oldfan]

From what Elias said over the weekend, it sounded like he is taking the best bat. Now if one of the Leiter or Rocker drops, that could change. I hope it's a bat, this team is short on hitting, why do you think he took Kjerstad. This team needs more hitters that can make an impact with one swing. You play in Camden Yards, Yankee Stadium Rogers Centre, can't get out homered and expect to compete

[joelala]

Kiley McDaniel Mock out this morn has us taking Davis. Paywalled, but this is the write-up:

”

Davis may be the best hit/power/performance combination in the draft, and he has a real shot, in baseball's automatic strike-calling future, to do it at the most valuable position on the field. He's not a very good receiver, but can catch the ball well enough to stay at the position. Offensively, Davis has plus-plus raw power, with an effective, strength-based swing that has crushed the ACC this year. GM Mike Elias has been in to see House a few times, and the O's are rumored to be high on Mayer as well, with almost no chance they take a pitcher at this pick. Seriously, look at their last two drafts.

If you're wondering if Adley Rutschman means the O's won't take Davis, I don't think it does. Davis has played a little bit of third base in the past (and done so capably), and even rotating the two of them between DH, first base and maybe left field should work to get both bats in the lineup. In the batter's box alone, I think Davis is better than Heston Kjerstad -- who Baltimore took with the No. 2 overall pick last year as a right fielder.”

Thoughts? My number one target is Meyer, and I would still rather take a guy who adds value in the field, but Davis can really hit. 

[Sports Guy]

I’m hoping Davis vaults himself up this list and ends up pushing one of the 4 guys down to us.

[joelala]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m hoping Davis vaults himself up this list and ends up pushing one of the 4 guys down to us.

Same. Who’s your preference, assuming Lawler is out of the question?

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, joelala said:

Same. Who’s your preference, assuming Lawler is out of the question?

Meyer..I’m worried about the wear and tear on the arms of Rocker and Leiter.  I would take them but would be worried about it.

Of course you have the HS boom/bust issue as well.

[Hazmat]

55 minutes ago, joelala said:

Kiley McDaniel Mock out this morn has us taking Davis. Paywalled, but this is the write-up:

”

Davis may be the best hit/power/performance combination in the draft, and he has a real shot, in baseball's automatic strike-calling future, to do it at the most valuable position on the field. He's not a very good receiver, but can catch the ball well enough to stay at the position. Offensively, Davis has plus-plus raw power, with an effective, strength-based swing that has crushed the ACC this year. GM Mike Elias has been in to see House a few times, and the O's are rumored to be high on Mayer as well, with almost no chance they take a pitcher at this pick. Seriously, look at their last two drafts.

If you're wondering if Adley Rutschman means the O's won't take Davis, I don't think it does. Davis has played a little bit of third base in the past (and done so capably), and even rotating the two of them between DH, first base and maybe left field should work to get both bats in the lineup. In the batter's box alone, I think Davis is better than Heston Kjerstad -- who Baltimore took with the No. 2 overall pick last year as a right fielder.”

Thoughts? My number one target is Meyer, and I would still rather take a guy who adds value in the field, but Davis can really hit. 

I'd be happy with Davis at 5 and the rotation of positions proposed here between he and Adley to reduce wear and tear.  Or, Davis could be used as a trade chip like Fransisco Mejia to obtain the missing piece(s) we need to finalize the roster of our next competitive team.  We could flip Davis a year or 2 from now for a 3B that is ready to break out of the minors for another team.  There could be less risk in that approach than just drafting House and hoping he pans out.

[Frobby]

We passed on Posey when we had chosen Wieters the previous year.   I don’t want to make that mistake again.   If Davis is the BPA when it’s our turn to pick, take him.    

[ArtVanDelay]

On 5/6/2021 at 3:50 PM, Sports Guy said:

I’m really hoping Lawlar drops.

I worry about these power college arms whose teams abuse them.

 

Lawlar is going #1. 

[Ruzious]

On 5/10/2021 at 3:32 PM, oldfan said:

From what Elias said over the weekend, it sounded like he is taking the best bat. Now if one of the Leiter or Rocker drops, that could change. I hope it's a bat, this team is short on hitting, why do you think he took Kjerstad. This team needs more hitters that can make an impact with one swing. You play in Camden Yards, Yankee Stadium Rogers Centre, can't get out homered and expect to compete

It might have been just GM-speak to keep others off-balance, but near the end of his tv interview he made a point of saying there was one HS pitcher that they were considering - in addition to the Vandy pitchers and several SS's.   

[Ruzious]

On 5/6/2021 at 3:14 PM, Hazmat said:

I'm going to sit and dream about Means, GRod, Hall, and Rocker in our rotation for a few minutes.

I'm in the Rocker camp as well.  The Leiter vs Rocker debate is a great one that could go on for a decade if they stay healthy.  Here's to them both staying healthy... and to one of them getting picked by Baltimore. 

If 1 slips to 5, and we pass on him... that'll be quite frustrating.       

[jabba72]

I would be fine with Davis or House. Whichever one the O's rate higher. 

[MurphDogg]

On 5/11/2021 at 10:10 AM, Sports Guy said:

I’m hoping Davis vaults himself up this list and ends up pushing one of the 4 guys down to us.

Keith Law released his initial Big Board, and he has Davis #1, followed by Lawler, Mayer, Rocker, Leiter, Frelick and McLain.

He is not a House guy, has him at #11.

I remain confident that we will have good options at #5. Getting Davis at 5 and if he and Adley both work out, being able to pencil in a good catcher for up to 162 games a year in 2024 would be kind of awesome.