Kjerstad comes in at #99 on BA Top 100

[hoosiers]

45 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I’m quite certain that they had a conversation with Kjerstad’s people reminding them of his ranking per the scouting services and tell them that they weren’t willing to pay slot. I’m sure you can admit this since they don’t have 7.7 million or whatever the exact number that’s left and they still need to sign Servideo.

You guys should at very least admit to the stuff that’s obvious 

 

Why wouldn't they have that conversation?  Why wouldn't they say we want to draft your guy and give him more than what he was expecting but much less than slot?  It is the exact same conversation the Astros had with Correa's agent.  Guess what you do not seem to understand - one should have that discussion with Kjerstad's agent regardless of whether you are telling the truth (and have Kjerstad rated somewhere fifth through fifteenth) or whether your internal analysis has Kjerstad as the best prospect to come along in 50 years!

That discussion has NOTHING TO DO with where you actually rate Kjerstad and everything to do with talking his agent into accepting as low a signing bonus as can be negotiated.  

[Roll Tide]

17 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

Why wouldn't they have that conversation?  Why wouldn't they say we want to draft your guy and give him more than what he was expecting but much less than slot?  It is the exact same conversation the Astros had with Correa's agent.  Guess what you do not seem to understand - one should have that discussion with Kjerstad's agent regardless of whether you are telling the truth (and have Kjerstad rated somewhere fifth through fifteenth) or whether your internal analysis has Kjerstad as the best prospect to come along in 50 years!

That discussion has NOTHING TO DO with where you actually rate Kjerstad and everything to do with talking his agent into accepting as low a signing bonus as can be negotiated.  

LOL.....OK 

Let them try that with Torkelson, Martin, or even Lacy! These guys know where they are ranked. 

Also Rutschman..... It took the record and $8 million to get him to sign. You think the Orioles tried that with  him? His advisors would have told them Orioles to go fly a kite.

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

LOL.....OK 

Let them try that with Torkelson, Martin, or even Lacy! These guys know where they are ranked. 

Also Rutschman..... It took the record and $8 million to get him to sign. You think the Orioles tried that will him? His advisors would have told them Orioles to go fly a kite.

 

The same Rutschman who signed for under slot?

[Roll Tide]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The same Rutschman who signed for under slot?

Quote

MLB Draft Top Pick Adley Rutschman, Orioles Agree to Record $8.1M Contract. The have reportedly signed No. 1 overall draft pick to a signing bonus worth $8.1 million, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. The bonus is the largest of its kind, breaking the previous record of $8 million set by Gerrit Cole in 2011.J

It was only the highest ever ....it’s 8.4 this year and I’m quite certain it goes up every year..... So he took a 100,000-200,000 less. Kjerstad is taking 2 million less....big difference! Don’t act like it isn’t!

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

It was only the highest ever ....it’s 8.4 this year and I’m quite certain it goes up every year..... So he took a 100,000-200,000 less. Kjerstad is taking 2 million less....big difference! Don’t act like it isn’t!

I'm just saying, so far, everyone that has gone #1 has signed an underslot deal.  It is part of what makes me think Martin would have backed down in the end.  It's too much money to turn down, particularly how uncertain next season is going to be.

[makoman]

5 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

LOL.....OK 

Let them try that with Torkelson, Martin, or even Lacy! These guys know where they are ranked. 

Also Rutschman..... It took the record and $8 million to get him to sign. You think the Orioles tried that with  him? His advisors would have told them Orioles to go fly a kite.

 

Yes they know where they’re ranked. That’s why you can say “Hey, we want to take you at 2. We see you’re ranked at around 10. So we’ll pay you slot for 7 and call it a day, good?”

You can do this because he’s afraid if he doesn’t agree he will fall to 9 or 10. Even if you think he’s  really #2 you can do this. This works best when you think the market undervalues the guy you love. 

[Flosman]

Maybe we will get lucky and it turns out like 2003. The 7th best player was better than the 2nd rated 2b. I don't think nick with more power is a bad comp. Weeks is also a great comp for Martin. The truth is we won't  know for a long time. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Flosman said:

Maybe we will get lucky and it turns out like 2003. The 7th best player was better than the 2nd rated 2b. I don't think nick with more power is a bad comp. Weeks is also a great comp for Martin. The truth is we won't  know for a long time. 

No way Kjerstad comes anywhere near the K/BB rate Markakis has had.  He's not the same kind of player.

[Flosman]

Kjerstad will strike out more but he is a good bet to hit for a lot more power. I can see both providing similar value. With kjerstad having some real upside.

More importantly the predraft writeups of weeks are almost identical to martin. Nick was a better pick than weeks by a bunch.

[hoosiers]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

LOL.....OK 

Let them try that with Torkelson, Martin, or even Lacy! These guys know where they are ranked. 

Also Rutschman..... It took the record and $8 million to get him to sign. You think the Orioles tried that with  him? His advisors would have told them Orioles to go fly a kite.

 

RT, you are all over the place in your opinion here.  Didn't you post a bit back that Martin would likely "be a team player" and lower his bonus demands?  Which is it - guys like Martin are team players or they want full slot and more?  

Whichever number the team and player agree to is what it is.  And agents ask for slot and more and teams offer slot and less. 

Sometimes, there may be a vast difference between what a player requests and what a team is willing to pay based on how it rates a prospect - and a team might take advantage of that.  Sometimes, the difference in talent between player A and player B is not enough to justify the difference in bonus requests. 

You seem to be making inferences on where these players are ranked based on their signing bonuses.

[Jammer7]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

It was only the highest ever ....it’s 8.4 this year and I’m quite certain it goes up every year..... So he took a 100,000-200,000 less. Kjerstad is taking 2 million less....big difference! Don’t act like it isn’t!

It was $300,000 less, no? And bonuses were frozen this year to the same value as last year.
 

Kjerstad’s bargaining position was not what it probably would have been if the season was played in it’s entirety. His advisors were held to what he has shown in the past. The Orioles’ projections models obviously were much higher on him.
 

Similarly, J.J. Bleday was not inline to be a top 5 pick last year at the beginning of the season, but he improved a great deal and was rewarded for his work by Miami. Andrew Benintendi was another who was not even consider publicly as even a third round pick before the 2015 season, but was picked 7th. Many college juniors put it together and rise rapidly. It happens all of the time. LH power is a rare commodity.
 

And personally, I think Burnitz would be Kjerstad’s floor. I believe he is a much better hitter, and a better fielder. For me, a better comp is Jay Bruce on the lower end. I could not think of a good higher end recent comp. I think Kjerstad and Bleday are strikingly similar players, though I think Kjerstad has a bit more raw power and a little better hit tool, but it’s close. Bleday is ranked #49 by BA, #28 by MLB Pipeline. 
 

I know...You don’t like the pick. 

[Can_of_corn]

Come on now, his floor is he doesn't make the majors.

 

[Roll Tide]

42 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

1) RT, you are all over the place in your opinion here.  Didn't you post a bit back that Martin would likely "be a team player" and lower his bonus demands?  Which is it - guys like Martin are team players or they want full slot and more?  

Whichever number the team and player agree to is what it is.  And agents ask for slot and more and teams offer slot and less. 

Sometimes, there may be a vast difference between what a player requests and what a team is willing to pay based on how it rates a prospect - and a team might take advantage of that.  Sometimes, the difference in talent between player A and player B is not enough to justify the difference in bonus requests. 

2) You seem to be making inferences on where these players are ranked based on their signing bonuses.

1) I said he would likely come in at just below whatever the amount would be for the Blue Jays not to forfeit a #1 and #2 next year. That is still going to be a big number....the bonus allotment + 9.5%

Quote

the loss of first- and second-rounders and a 100 percent tax for more than 10 and up to 15 percent

So they signed all but their 4th rounder who at slot would get 500k. At that number they are about 1.3 million short of the 7.8 million Boras is expecting.

Their allotment number is 9.7 million.....So 970,000 means that Martin would have to agree to accept around 7.5 for the Jays not to lose their 1st and 2nd round picks next year. 
 

2) Boras knew the Marlins and Orioles went with the 9th and 10th ranked players to save money. The Royals took the best pitcher with the other selection that pushed Martin to 5th. So he is expecting at or near slot for his client. As I mentioned, Kjerstad is going to accept somewhere near $2 million dollars less than the #2 slot money. I think any one with a reasonable level of intelligence can figure it out.

So genius, Why isn’t Kjerstad asking for the assigned slot value of 7.7?? If these guys are so close in value, why would Kjerstad’s camp be so willing to accept $2 million less? 
 

I rest my case and am not going to continue to argue with you over this. 
 

https://jaysjournal.com/2020/06/19/toronto-blue-jay-much-can-offer-austin-martin/

[Roll Tide]

40 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

It was $300,000 less, no? And bonuses were frozen this year to the same value as last year.
 

1) Kjerstad’s bargaining position was not what it probably would have been if the season was played in it’s entirety. His advisors were held to what he has shown in the past. The Orioles’ projections models obviously were much higher on him.
 

Similarly, J.J. Bleday was not inline to be a top 5 pick last year at the beginning of the season, but he improved a great deal and was rewarded for his work by Miami. Andrew Benintendi was another who was not even consider publicly as even a third round pick before the 2015 season, but was picked 7th. Many college juniors put it together and rise rapidly. It happens all of the time. LH power is a rare commodity.
 

2) And personally, I think Burnitz would be Kjerstad’s floor. I believe he is a much better hitter, and a better fielder. For me, a better comp is Jay Bruce on the lower end. I could not think of a good higher end recent comp. I think Kjerstad and Bleday are strikingly similar players, though I think Kjerstad has a bit more raw power and a little better hit tool, but it’s close. Bleday is ranked #49 by BA, #28 by MLB Pipeline. 
 

I know...You don’t like the pick. 

1) You don’t know this .... anything could’ve happened. An injury, a slump, big years by other players, etc. Maybe Kjerstad has a stellar year any moves up as you suggest. But it’s far from a certainty.

2) Let me know when Kjerstad has produced 20 WAR! Then we can discuss this further, and you certainly have a right to your opinion. I’m not saying I know one way or the other. I think the Orioles would be content with a return of Burnitz value. As l mentioned, 70% of the guys selected in the 1st round in almost any given year won’t amount to much. 

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, makoman said:

1) Yes they know where they’re ranked. That’s why you can say “Hey, we want to take you at 2. We see you’re ranked at around 10. So we’ll pay you slot for 7 and call it a day, good?”

2) You can do this because he’s afraid if he doesn’t agree he will fall to 9 or 10. Even if you think he’s  really #2 you can do this. This works best when you think the market undervalues the guy you love. 

1) Noted .... I’m sure that it went that way with Kjerstad. 
 

2) Elias took a player who would sign for less money allowing the Orioles to spend 2 million extra on Baumer and Mayo. Elias then was quoted in the article as saying money wasn’t the only reason that he took Kjerstad. But it was certainly the primary reason. Of course he likes Kjerstad, and he’s certainly not going to down a guy that he just sent a 1st round pick on. But, he was a value pick, not the best player available.