It's time for the OH to turn the page

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Or maybe, just maybe, you are allowing a SSS and your optimism to distort the so called improvements?

 

 

Maybe

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

The improvement the players have made, the analytics the team is using, the coaching staff's ability to help players get better,  the players realizing their ability to succeed and being more confident all add up to an environment where the team is moving passed past history IMO.

I believe in what I am seeing.   Others are not slow thinker,  they are not convinced yet.  

If I'm not "caught up in my thinking" then my thinking must be slow right?  At least compared to yourself.

Nice job not providing the evidence I requested.

[eddie83]

6 minutes ago, drjohnnyfeva said:

I like how this thread is developing.  I like the enthusiasm of the OP, but I'm still a little dubious on how good this team really is.  But there are definitely players who are playing well, maybe better than they ever have.  Which begs the question, do we hang on and chalk it up to the rebuild is working OR do they offload some of the guys who are doing well to get a better return (or any return at all) than we otherwise might have?  I think that will be telling about what Elias and the rest really think of these guys.

Certainly Cobb is a different case merely for payroll savings, but some of the other guys, Santander, Nunez, Iglesias... do we stand pat hoping (thinking/knowing) the rebuild is becoming fruitful or do we deal if offered?  To me, that's the question. 

Chasing a Playoff spot would be really fun and these guys are pretty entertaining to watch, but if it's a mirage that could be a big setback.  How the team proceeds to the trade deadline will be telling.

I would think this may wind up being the worst trade deadline of all time. With 16 teams making it how many will be in the mix by deadline day? 20-26? 

If you are the best team your reward is a best of 3 to start out. Much less incentive to go all in.  I think the one advantage big markets teams would have is a willingness to take on money. 

If the Orioles are in the mix at the deadline it’s not like we have assets that would bring us a big return. 

[drjohnnyfeva]

16 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I would think this may wind up being the worst trade deadline of all time. With 16 teams making it how many will be in the mix by deadline day? 20-26? 

If you are the best team your reward is a best of 3 to start out. Much less incentive to go all in.  I think the one advantage big markets teams would have is a willingness to take on money. 

If the Orioles are in the mix at the deadline it’s not like we have assets that would bring us a big return. 

Yeah, I would think we wouldn't be trading to improve to win in the Playoffs, but rather to improve over the next couple of seasons.  If they trade guys like Santander, Nunez, and Iglesias, that gives us the info that the brass doesn't think the team is to the point in the rebuild of being a contender.  I think they are definitely interested in offloading Cobb and Givens just for money saving purposes, but whether they listen to other teams about some of these guys - who may be playing in a tree - will determine, potentially, how high they are or aren't on some of those guys.

But your point is well taken, this might not be the year to gauge anything as some teams may have simply written off this whole thingas an exhibition and not worthy of investing or divesting any talent with such a short work sample.  I mean, really, there are many guys who have a hot April and by July are riding the pine, so who knows.

Edited August 11, 2020 by drjohnnyfeva
spelling

[Frobby]

I see two stretches last year where the O’s won at least 7 games in a 14 game span.   In fact, they had an 8-6 stretch (games 95-118) and a 7-7 stretch (games 125-138) during a 44-game period last year. But they still only managed to go 18-26 in that period, and the best they did in any 60-game stretch that included those two “hot” streaks was 24-36.    

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

The point is when there are 15 or 16 pitchers on the staff Wojo,  Milone and LeBlanc don't have to do any more than go through the lineup twice.    4 2/3 innings is really all that is needed.   The relief staff looks much improved.  I think we have to give the analytics and coaching staff a lot of credit for taking marginal pitchers and improving them with knowledge, physical adjustments and confidence  to make them better.

I also think that the position players are much improved.   Ruiz added 10 pounds and changing his swing,   Alberto hitting righties.  Hays in center.  Santander being full time in right.  The addition of Iglesias as a leader. The two catcher  hitting.   The guys are not just swinging for the fences.  They are trusting each other to have productive at bats.   If Elias will just move Davis to the bench, Nunez to 1B and use several players at DH, I can see move improvement to come.  Especially with promotion of Mountcastle.

Nothing is for sure.  But there is more of a chance of a winning team then we have seen in a  while.   Fans have not caught up in their thinks to the development that Elias and staff have done and are doing with these players.  Many of them don't need to be replaced to be part  of a contending team.  

I'm glad you are enjoying the season and have a lot of optimism about the current group of players. While I do think there are some potential building block players (Hays, Santander, maybe even Alberto) on this current roster, I'm not convinced we've seen some major turn around. 

This is going to be very strange season and it's not out of the question that the Orioles find a way to stay competitive under these circumstances, but the reality is this team looks undermanned against every opponent. Maybe the coaching staff have found ways to get the most out of the current group and I do like the way Hyde is handling Wojo, Milone, Eshelman and LeBlanc with the extended bullpens, but I'm not convinced any of these guys are building blocks to sustained success after this season. 

I think we just need to enjoy this season for what it is, and don't get too caught up in anything one way of the other. This team is still 2-3 years from being consistently competitive over a full 162 game schedule and that's only if our current farm system starts to push out some impact players (Rutschman, Kjerstad?) and can rebuild a pitching staff while perhaps making a splash with a major league ready or nearly major league ready international signing.

 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

As I said, fans have not caught up in their thinking to the improvement that many of these players have made.

Or perhaps they aren't convinced that 14 games within a crazy season is enough to make a final assessment of whether the improvements are for real or not?

[Tony-OH]

44 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I would think this may wind up being the worst trade deadline of all time. With 16 teams making it how many will be in the mix by deadline day? 20-26? 

If you are the best team your reward is a best of 3 to start out. Much less incentive to go all in.  I think the one advantage big markets teams would have is a willingness to take on money. 

If the Orioles are in the mix at the deadline it’s not like we have assets that would bring us a big return. 

Plus, what team is really going to go all in on this season with the expanded playoffs and craziness. Is anyone going to be crowing about being the 2021 "World Champions?"

Not that I think the Orioles had a lot of great trading chips anyways, but I don't foresee teams giving up many prospects for guys at this trading deadline. I do still think Givens could gets traded though. I just don't expect a lot in return.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Plus, what team is really going to go all in on this season with the expanded playoffs and craziness. Is anyone going to be crowing about being the 2021 "World Champions?"

Oh, I’d take it.    I don’t hear a lot of Washington football fans who discount their 1983 Super Bowl title despite the 9 game regular season and expanded playoff format.    

But I don’t see us getting very far regardless of the format.    I’d be delighted to be wrong.   
 

 

[wildcard]

33 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I see two stretches last year where the O’s won at least 7 games in a 14 game span.   In fact, they had an 8-6 stretch (games 95-118) and a 7-7 stretch (games 125-138) during a 44-game period last year. But they still only managed to go 18-26 in that period, and the best they did in any 60-game stretch that included those two “hot” streaks was 24-36.    

That was last year.  I think there is improvement this year.

[wildcard]

23 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Or perhaps they aren't convinced that 14 games within a crazy season is enough to make a final assessment of whether the improvements are for real or not?

Yes, I agree.  But nothing is final.   When looking forward its all projections.  I think the important thing is to recognize the improvement.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

That was last year.  I think there is improvement this year.

Based on what?

[Tony-OH]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Oh, I’d take it.    I don’t hear a lot of Washington football fans who discount their 1983 Super Bowl title despite the 9 game regular season and expanded playoff format.    

But I don’t see us getting very far regardless of the format.    I’d be delighted to be wrong.   
 

 

Well I think we would all take it as Orioles fans with team that was expected to finish last, but I was more referring to actual contending teams. 

[Redskins Rick]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Based on what?

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Yes, I agree.  But nothing is final.   When looking forward its all projections.  I think the important thing is to recognize the improvement.

I think the difference in thinking here is you want everyone to " recognize the improvements" while many others don't feel we have enough data to make that assessment of real improvements vs a hot streak to start a season.

Let's look at one of the guys you discussed:

Rio Ruiz has some encouraging numbers between last year and this year. 

Stat       2019     2020    Dif
xBA       .233       .221      -.012
XSLG    .362      .443        .081
xWOBA .297     .319        .022
Barrel%  2.8%    17.4%     14.6%         92nd percentile in MLB
exitvel    88.4     91.7        3.3 MPH   85th percentile in MLB
LA           11.3     15.6        4.3 
K%          21.3%   28.2%    6.9% worse
BB%        9.7%     12.8%    3.1%          

So it seems like Ruiz is hitting the ball with more authority, getting more launch angle, which is course has hurt his strikeout rate and expected batting average a bit. Right now his barrel and exit velocity is among the top in MLB. Pitchers are starting throw him a bit more offspeed this year to adjust so we will have to see how this goes as the season progresses.

The improvement in exit velocity and barrels is impressive so he's actually one that I'm interested to follow and see if it levels out or if this is some kind of sustained improvement as he enters his peak years.