Tony Quote and “who needs what” trade query

[Philip]

Courtesy our fearless leader:

 

 “I don't believe Elias wants to win this year and prefers at least one more year of great draft position.”

I thought this quote worthy of repeating, because Tony offers valuable insight. I’m not going to disagree, because roster moves to this point support that contention.

I don’t think there are going to be any superstar trades, because even the best player in the world would only help for 40 games plus playoffs, and a huge asterisk will forever fly over this season.

However, playoffs are playoffs, World Series victory is World Series victory, asterisk or no( just ask the Astros and Bosox) So I expect there will be an off a lot of movement of minor players, and we have a lot of minor players.

Alberto, Santander, Armstrong, Givens.
Possibly, but unlikely, Castro, Ruiz, Cobb, Milone.

My question is, which teams need what? The D-Backs need relievers in the worst way, the Rangers just lost their second second baseman, and Alberto has played for them before, and there have been many injuries that wouldn’t be significant in a full season but are meaningful now.

Bearing in mind that none of our guys is going to bring a major or immediate return, who needs what?

[Camden_yardbird]

As of 8/21

East Division

Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB
Tampa Bay Rays	17	9	.654	--
New York Yankees	16	9	.640	0.5
Toronto Blue Jays	12	11	.522	3.5
Baltimore Orioles	12	13	.480	4.5
Boston Red Sox	8	18	.308	9.0

Central Division

 

Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB
Minnesota Twins	17	9	.654	--
Cleveland Indians	16	9	.640	0.5
Chicago White Sox	15	11	.577	2.0
Kansas City Royals	10	15	.400	6.5
Detroit Tigers	9	14	.391	6.5

West Division

 

Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB
Oakland Athletics	18	8	.692	--
Houston Astros	15	10	.600	2.5
Texas Rangers	10	14	.417	7.0
Los Angeles Angels	8	18	.308	10.0
Seattle Mariners	8	19	.296	10.5

 

East Division

 

Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB
Atlanta Braves	14	11	.560	--
Miami Marlins	9	9	.500	1.5
New York Mets	12	14	.462	2.5
Philadelphia Phillies	9	12	.429	3.0
Washington Nationals	9	12	.429	3.0

Central Division

 

Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB
Chicago Cubs	16	8	.667	--
St. Louis Cardinals	7	7	.500	4.0
Milwaukee Brewers	11	12	.478	4.5
Cincinnati Reds	10	13	.435	5.5
Pittsburgh Pirates	4	17	.190	10.5

West Division

 

Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB
Los Angeles Dodgers	19	8	.704	--
San Diego Padres	15	12	.556	4.0
Colorado Rockies	13	12	.520	5.0
Arizona Diamondbacks	13	13	.500	5.5
San Francisco Giants	11	16	.407	8.0

While I think teams will be risk averse, I dont think many GMs got to where they are by not taking chances.  The expanded playoff format will bring more teams into the mix so it will ve a sellers market.  Given the format, and last years records almost every team with a .500 record would have made it into the playoffs, so approach it from that viewpoint.

I would look for teams to pay for players with 2021 control and the Orioles have a lot of those.

I also think the writing is on the wall, the DH will stick around, so you could see some NL teams trying to acquire bats for that purpose as well if they are light on hitters.

[eddie83]

The AL playoffs are basically set. 

The 8 teams now will be the 8 teams in the postseason. I guess Texas would be a long shot candidate. The Orioles while in it mathematically are showing their issues. Seattle, Detroit and KC are all rebuilding and Boston and LAA have dug huge holes. 

In the NL it’s much more fluid. The first 5 teams out of the playoffs right now are NYM, Was, Philly, MIL and Cincy. Pittsburgh is awful and SF isn’t any good either. Right now 13 teams are hanging around. Have to see what happens in next 10 days. Clearly the AL will be the teams willing to deal the most. Question is do they have anything worthwhile? 

[Philip]

32 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

As of 8/21

East Division

Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB
Tampa Bay Rays	17	9	.654	--
New York Yankees	16	9	.640	0.5
Toronto Blue Jays	12	11	.522	3.5
Baltimore Orioles	12	13	.480	4.5
Boston Red Sox	8	18	.308	9.0

Central Division

 

Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB
Minnesota Twins	17	9	.654	--
Cleveland Indians	16	9	.640	0.5
Chicago White Sox	15	11	.577	2.0
Kansas City Royals	10	15	.400	6.5
Detroit Tigers	9	14	.391	6.5

West Division

 

Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB
Oakland Athletics	18	8	.692	--
Houston Astros	15	10	.600	2.5
Texas Rangers	10	14	.417	7.0
Los Angeles Angels	8	18	.308	10.0
Seattle Mariners	8	19	.296	10.5

 

East Division

 

Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB
Atlanta Braves	14	11	.560	--
Miami Marlins	9	9	.500	1.5
New York Mets	12	14	.462	2.5
Philadelphia Phillies	9	12	.429	3.0
Washington Nationals	9	12	.429	3.0

Central Division

 

Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB
Chicago Cubs	16	8	.667	--
St. Louis Cardinals	7	7	.500	4.0
Milwaukee Brewers	11	12	.478	4.5
Cincinnati Reds	10	13	.435	5.5
Pittsburgh Pirates	4	17	.190	10.5

West Division

 

Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB
Los Angeles Dodgers	19	8	.704	--
San Diego Padres	15	12	.556	4.0
Colorado Rockies	13	12	.520	5.0
Arizona Diamondbacks	13	13	.500	5.5
San Francisco Giants	11	16	.407	8.0

While I think teams will be risk averse, I dont think many GMs got to where they are by not taking chances.  The expanded playoff format will bring more teams into the mix so it will ve a sellers market.  Given the format, and last years records almost every team with a .500 record would have made it into the playoffs, so approach it from that viewpoint.

I would look for teams to pay for players with 2021 control and the Orioles have a lot of those.

I also think the writing is on the wall, the DH will stick around, so you could see some NL teams trying to acquire bats for that purpose as well if they are light on hitters.

I certainly don’t disagree with any of that, my overall point was that the general managers are not going to be taking huge chances and they’re not going to be making huge deals. That means the guys we have who are doing pretty well and are still pre-arbitration have some trade value if they fill an urgent need on a possible playoff team. I mentioned the Diamondbacks and the Rangers, but there’s also the White Sox certainly, possibly the Rockies, the athletics may want to improve themselves against the Astros, and so on.

[Lucky_13]

I think the guy that will almost for sure be traded is Givens. He has a solid track record, has a good strikeout rate and is on a bit of a roll to start the season and is under control for another season so I think GM's can be confident he'll perform in a setup roll in abbreviated 2020 and also have him under control for another year. 

I think any contending team could use him but the Phillies need is probably greatest and I could also see the Mets getting desperate.  I think the return will be something like a backend top 30 prospect just going off of last years deals for relievers, especially since Givens is solid but not an elite reliever. 

Elias will also try to move Cobb's contract if he can so if that happens I don't expect the return to be anything of value. Mets or Braves could work here. 

I don't see Armstrong being traded because he's making minimum right now. Santander is the only guy I think could be on the next contending team so I doubt he's traded and Alberto is a solid placeholder at second until they get some infield prospects so I don't see him traded unless someone overpays. 

I'd like them to shop Severino around out of all the young guys they currently have. 

[oriole]

A Cobb trade would be nice. Givens might get something noteworthy. Maybe some of the lesser BP arms like Armstrong, Castro, or Sulser could get a lottery ticket type of prospect. I think it’d be wise to see what teams would offer for Santander or Alberto but I’m okay with keeping them too just to see if what they’re doing is real. I don’t think the O’s will be particularly active though. 

[Camden_yardbird]

No one thinks Nunez to a DH needy NL team for a #15-20 prospect happens?  I think it could.

[OFFNY]

7 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

 

Courtesy of our fearless leader ........

 

 

 

o

 

I agree that Tony is fearless.

He once told me that if George Scott were charging at him in attack mode, he would probably do what Denny Martinez did ........ run away.

I don't buy it. I think that Tony's instincts would have him stand tall in such situation, damn the consequences.

 

o

[Morgan423]

5 hours ago, Lucky_13 said:

Elias will also try to move Cobb's contract if he can so if that happens I don't expect the return to be anything of value. Mets or Braves could work here. 

With Cobb pitching well, we should get an okay return.  He's signed through next year.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

7 hours ago, Philip said:

Courtesy our fearless leader:

 

 “I don't believe Elias wants to win this year and prefers at least one more year of great draft position.”

I thought this quote worthy of repeating, because Tony offers valuable insight. I’m not going to disagree, because roster moves to this point support that contention.

I don’t think there are going to be any superstar trades, because even the best player in the world would only help for 40 games plus playoffs, and a huge asterisk will forever fly over this season.

However, playoffs are playoffs, World Series victory is World Series victory, asterisk or no( just ask the Astros and Bosox) So I expect there will be an off a lot of movement of minor players, and we have a lot of minor players.

Alberto, Santander, Armstrong, Givens.
Possibly, but unlikely, Castro, Ruiz, Cobb, Milone.

My question is, which teams need what? The D-Backs need relievers in the worst way, the Rangers just lost their second second baseman, and Alberto has played for them before, and there have been many injuries that wouldn’t be significant in a full season but are meaningful now.

Bearing in mind that none of our guys is going to bring a major or immediate return, who needs what?

Who did the Rangers just lose?

[makoman]

12 minutes ago, Morgan423 said:

With Cobb pitching well, we should get an okay return.  He's signed through next year.

That’s not necessarily a plus. Though $4.5M is deferred till the 30s (10M if he misses the innings incentive).

[Aristotelian]

I think it is overstating to say that Elias prefers draft position to winning. That would imply literally tanking and trying to lose games. I would say that he is not going to make any moves (or non-moves) that compromise the ability of the team to compete once a window opens. I agree that Givens and Cobb are likely trade candidates as well as Iglesias if he is able to come back and show he is healthy. But if the O's are playing >.500 at the deadline I could see him holding firm as all of the above are still under control and should still have value next year. One thing that winning now accomplishes is increased leverage in any deal because he can say the guys have value to us if we don't trade.

[Philip]

35 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Who did the Rangers just lose?

They lost Danny Santana, And they brought in a guy to replace him, And I think that guy went down too

[Legend_Of_Joey]

49 minutes ago, Philip said:

They lost Danny Santana, And they brought in a guy to replace him, And I think that guy went down too

Derek Dietrich?

[eddie83]

AL to NL trade. Adds up.

Think we see will see these types of deals.