Grading the July 2018 Trades: an update

[now]

With recent improvements of Tate and Phillips (hard to imagine the guy blasted here is the same pitcher Roch was praising today: see https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2020/09/evan-phillips-rolling-in-return-trips.html) and arrival of Kremer and Zimmerman, it invites an update of the mega trades of July 2018.

SSS of course, but if Phillips has turned the corner, and Zimmerman lives up to reports from the camp, the Guasman trade starts looking better. The same can be said withTate in the Britton trade. Looking back at my thumbnail grades at the time of those trades, maybe it's time for an updated evaluation (my 2018 grade in parentheses). Of course, with many of these it's still too soon to tell for sure, so again it's just updating my best, amateur fan's guess. Also, I'm now adding an overall grade. What do you think?

For Manny Machado we received from the Dodgers-- overall grade: B

B (A-) : 21-year old OF Yusniel Diaz 
A (B+) : 22-year old RHSP Dean Kremer
C+ (C) : 22-year old 3B/2B Rylan Bannon
B- (C+) : 21-year old RHRP Zach Pop
F (D): 26-year old UTIL Breyvic Valera

 
For Zach Britton we received from the Yankees-- overall grade: C-

B+ (C) : 24-year old RHSP Dillon Tate
D (C): 25-year old RHRP Cody Carroll
C- (B-) : 24-year old LHSP Josh Rogers

For Kevin Gausman we received from the Braves-- C

D (C-) : 20-year old 3B Jean Carlos Encarnacion
D (C-) : 23-year old Catcher Brett Cumberland
C+ (D+) : 23-year old LHSP Bruce Zimmerman
B (C+) : 23-year old RHRP Evan Phillips

For Jonathan Schoop we received from the Brewers-- C-

F (C) : 22-year old RHSP Luis Ortiz
D (C- 18-year old SS Jean Carmona
B (B) : 27-year old Infielder Jonathan Villar

[HowAboutThat]

Thank you for this list. Most of these grades must be considered incomplete at this time.

Kremer looks like a solid win. If he continues like this it will compensate for all the dross we acquired in those trades.

Phillips is a dud. Even the worst pitcher has a “dead cat bounce” now and then. He’s terrible, and I’ll be surprised if he’s here in January.

Tate hasn’t done much to dispel doubts. That whole return is looking like a loss.

Zimmerman gets an “I” ATM, but I’m hopeful he’ll do well.

Villar makes the Schoop trade a win, even if that’s all we get.

[HowAboutThat]

What happened to Carmona?

[SteveA]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

What happened to Carmona?

I don't think the sad face was intentional.  Certain character sequences get converted to smilies and you can't stop it.

I've run into it with a numbered list, with an 8 flowed by a close parenthesis.

...

6)

7)

9)

10)

[bpilktree]

2 hours ago, Philip said:

Thank you for this list. Most of these grades must be considered incomplete at this time.

Kremer looks like a solid win. If he continues like this it will compensate for all the dross we acquired in those trades.

Phillips is a dud. Even the worst pitcher has a “dead cat bounce” now and then. He’s terrible, and I’ll be surprised if he’s here in January.

Tate hasn’t done much to dispel doubts. That whole return is looking like a loss.

Zimmerman gets an “I” ATM, but I’m hopeful he’ll do well.

Villar makes the Schoop trade a win, even if that’s all we get.

I think you undervalued Tate he has been pretty good for late inning guy.  He has been almost unhittable vs righties with .111 average against and been ok vs lefties.  He still needs to work on his command some but the stuff is major league for backend of pen.

The one bad one looks like the Gausman trade but he has never been consistent enough even getting released by the Braves.  I thought Encarcion was a nice get in that trade as a young third baseman that looked promising after a solid start of year at 18 in A ball.  So far we haven%to seen the improvement that we had hoped and now loss year for many prospects.  It will be intersting what happens to everyone with this year break.  We don’t know how much time most of the prospects have had to play games and train.  Some guys might have had a huge advantage compared to others especially international guys.

[Ripken]

Gaus was a money dump (Atl took DOD, too).

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, bpilktree said:

I think you undervalued Tate he has been pretty good for late inning guy.  He has been almost unhittable vs righties with .111 average against and been ok vs lefties.  He still needs to work on his command some but the stuff is major league for backend of pen.

The one bad one looks like the Gausman trade but he has never been consistent enough even getting released by the Braves.  I thought Encarcion was a nice get in that trade as a young third baseman that looked promising after a solid start of year at 18 in A ball.  So far we haven%to seen the improvement that we had hoped and now loss year for many prospects.  It will be intersting what happens to everyone with this year break.  We don’t know how much time most of the prospects have had to play games and train.  Some guys might have had a huge advantage compared to others especially international guys.

No, the grades are all Incompletes except the already failures. I have very high hopes for Kremer but it’s too soon. I’m happy to give Tate more time. He’s been OK but like Kremer, it’s too soon. Caroll and Phillips have had plenty of time. They can go away fast and far.
overall it’s just too soon.

[Yardball85]

4 hours ago, Philip said:

Thank you for this list. Most of these grades must be considered incomplete at this time.

Kremer looks like a solid win. If he continues like this it will compensate for all the dross we acquired in those trades.

Phillips is a dud. Even the worst pitcher has a “dead cat bounce” now and then. He’s terrible, and I’ll be surprised if he’s here in January.

Tate hasn’t done much to dispel doubts. That whole return is looking like a loss.

Zimmerman gets an “I” ATM, but I’m hopeful he’ll do well.

Villar makes the Schoop trade a win, even if that’s all we get.

What akes you so confident Phillips is a dud?  He's nothing incredibly special, but could be a solid middle reliever for the Orioles.

[ScGO's]

For Manny Machado we received from the Dodgers-- overall grade: B

B (A-) : 21-year old OF Yusniel Diaz

A (B+) : 22-year old RHSP Dean Kremer
C+ (C) : 22-year old 3B/2B Rylan Bannon
B- (C+) : 21-year old RHRP Zach Pop
F (D): 26-year old UTIL Breyvic Valera

 This deal could still come out solid if Diaz blossoms.  Kremer's emergence makes me feel much better about 2021's rotation. We will probably know what Bannon is by this time next year.  Maybe he makes Alberto expendable.  I am still very high on Pop.  I think he could be a big piece of the bullpen if he comes back healthy.  Not a bad potential haul and we will probably know what we have from this deal by the end of 2021.

For Zach Britton we received from the Yankees-- overall grade: C-

B+ (C) : 24-year old RHSP Dillon Tate
D (C): 25-year old RHRP Cody Carroll
C- (B-) : 24-year old LHSP Josh Rogers

I am actually happy with this deal.  I think Tate is for real in the bullpen.  I still like Cody Carroll's frame and potential.  I think he gets one more year.  Josh Rogers could be a guy next season. We kind of forget about him, but he performed well in the high minors before we got him.  Who knows how much of that is injury related, so we don't know what to expect when he gets back as he has had a lot of off time to study the analytics side that Elias has brought.  We'll know what we have by this time next year.

For Kevin Gausman we received from the Braves-- C

D (C-) : 20-year old 3B Jean Carlos Encarnacion
D (C-) : 23-year old Catcher Brett Cumberland
C+ (D+) : 23-year old LHSP Bruce Zimmerman
B (C+) : 23-year old RHRP Evan Phillips

Bruce will compete for a starting 5 spot next season and Phillips may have turned a corner.  Who knows what Jean Carlos Encarnacion has been working on, but you know Elias has probably put his data/analytics crew, mental skills guys, and instructors on him.  Cumberland was getting some positive remarks towards the end of last season I believe.  He seems like an OBP guy, but we will probably know what we have in him by the end of next season.  Encarnacion is the one that may take a couple more seasons to see if we are going to get a return.

For Jonathan Schoop we received from the Brewers-- C-

F (C) : 22-year old RHSP Luis Ortiz
D (C- 18-year old SS Jean Carmona
B (B) : 27-year old Infielder Jonathan Villar

To me, this is the dud in the long term.  Is Ortiz still in the organization?  If so, maybe Elias' guys can work some magic.  I think Carmona is still in the organization, but I haven't seen his name in a while.  We are probably a few seasons away from seeing whether we get a return on him.  I guess Villar's return is now represented by the infamous Easton Lucas, although I do see value in having him on the squad last year to assist in the development process.

[HowAboutThat]

37 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

What akes you so confident Phillips is a dud?  He's nothing incredibly special, but could be a solid middle reliever for the Orioles.

Because he’s sucked so far. He has moments of competence surrounded by eons of terrible. He could be many things, but what he is is terrible he is probably also expendable which is why I don’t expect to see him around in January.

[Yardball85]

1 minute ago, Philip said:

Because he’s sucked so far. He has moments of competence surrounded by eons of terrible. He could be many things, but what he is is terrible he is probably also expendable which is why I don’t expect to see him around in January.

It's absurd to call him terrible.  Has he lit the world on fire? No.

20 strikeouts in 14.3 innings this year.  3.14 ERA.  Small sample size? Sure.

But 2018 and 2019 were also small sample sizes, where he didn't pitch great in small periods of time.  He has always had good K numbers, and had a 1.99 ERA in AAA in 2018.  He's fine s a fifth or sixth reliever who can average over 1 strikeout an inning and hopefully, post a sub 4 ERA.

[HowAboutThat]

Just now, Yardball85 said:

It's absurd to call him terrible.  Has he lit the world on fire? No.

20 strikeouts in 14.3 innings this year.  3.14 ERA.  Small sample size? Sure.

But 2018 and 2019 were also small sample sizes, where he didn't pitch great in small periods of time.  He has always had good K numbers, and had a 1.99 ERA in AAA in 2018.  He's fine s a fifth or sixth reliever who can average over 1 strikeout an inning and hopefully, post a sub 4 ERA.

How many Inherited runs did he allow? I don’t know, but reliever era is deceptive. He has a high K rate and a very high BB rate. His FIP is low, which is in his favor, but nah.

He will be here till someone better comes along. Wojo got a long leash, maybe Phillips will too, but I don’t think it will be long. 

[Aristotelian]

I don't really see the point of grading individual players since it's the package that matters. 

Zimmerman has had one start. Overall he has done well.

I think Villar for Schoop was more like a B+. He put up 5+ WAR for us and Easton Lucas could become something.

I would like to know what you think would have been an A return for Manny. Kremer is looking like a solid SP, potentially a #2-3 type. Seems to be the complete package of stuff and command. Diaz appears to be on track still for at least 4th OF sport and possibly better, and Pop still has potential. 

[now]

16 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I think Villar for Schoop was more like a B+. He put up 5+ WAR for us and Easton Lucas could become something.

I would like to know what you think would have been an A return for Manny. Kremer is looking like a solid SP, potentially a #2-3 type. Seems to be the complete package of stuff and command. Diaz appears to be on track still for at least 4th OF sport and possibly better, and Pop still has potential. 

For sure... for me the Machado deal could end up like Tillman and Jones (& Sherrill) for Bedard, just needs more time to get there.

Villar was great but we only got the one year.

[Aristotelian]

3 minutes ago, now said:

For sure... for me the Machado deal could end up like Tillman and Jones (& Sherrill) for Bedard, just needs more time to get there.

Villar was great but we only got the one year.

Schoop made $7.5M in 2019 vs Villar $4.8M. So we netted $2.7M plus more than 3 WAR and Easton Lucas. I don't know how that gets a C-.