FA 3B . Hmmm

[Philip]

1 hour ago, NCRaven said:

Occam’s Razor - the simplest explanation is usually right.  If Broccail says that Elias said it was money, and Flores says that Elias says it was money, and industry insiders say it was money...it was probably money.

Valid point. But the available evidence would indicate they are swallowing camels and straining at gnats. 161 M for Davis, but can’t afford 150k or so for a coach or two?

[BohKnowsBmore]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

Valid point. But the available evidence would indicate they are swallowing camels and straining at gnats. 161 M for Davis, but can’t afford 150k or so for a coach or two?

And I would assume they replace him with a coach at a close to comparable salary. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

And I would assume they replace him with a coach at a close to comparable salary. 

It sounded like the total number of coaches at the ML level was decreasing by one. 

[sportsfan8703]

Ruiz is a fine “stop gap” at 3rd, with the possibility to be more. He increased his OPS from .682 to .713. His OPS in the 2nd half of 2019 was .766. He’s only 26. He has two pre arb years left. I could see being in the .730-.750ish range those two years, while playing decent defense. 
 

 

[DrungoHazewood]

12 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

If the salaries of a questionable 3B coach and a pitching coach are the main factors in not renewing them, then this organization is in big, big trouble financially. Especially since major league coaching salaries typically pale in comparison to even a first year player.

I don't know the particulars here, but I have a hard time grasping that their salaries paid any part in the decision to not renew them. While the team might be restructuring their business plan, if that was told to The Athletic, and I'm not doubting Connolly was told that, it may have been a way to give them a send off that did not hurt their reputations.

Here's how we'll know though. If arbitration eligible players like Nunez, Alberto, Armstrong or Severino are traded away for basically nothing to avoid arbitration raises then we can have some serious questions.

Right.  How do you sign Iglesias to a two-year deal at $6M if you're terrified that $100k or $200k in coaching salaries is going to kill you?  Did the COVID situation really put the team on the edge of solvency?

11 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Very odd choice of an alternative reason. 

I don't see how this is a good look for the team either with fans or in the industry. 

 

Not to fans or industry, to the coach.

11 hours ago, Philip said:

It is HIGHLY unlikely they were fired for money reasons. However, when the guys start looking for other work, it’s better to say,” they fired me because of budget cuts” rather than, “Boy I sucked at my job.”

Like that.

9 hours ago, NCRaven said:

Occam’s Razor - the simplest explanation is usually right.  If Broccail says that Elias said it was money, and Flores says that Elias says it was money, and industry insiders say it was money...it was probably money.

Is it really the simplest explanation?  In a normal year this would be saving something like one tenth of one percent of the budget.  Tony's right, if this is really about money they're going to decline Iglesias' option and trade or non-tender Mancini, Alberto, and everyone else due even a small raise.  Each of those has far more impact than a coaching spot.

[Sports Guy]

10 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

The best way to fill third is via trade and acquire a ML ready or close to ML ready third baseman.  Go after a team with a third baseman who isn’t going anywhere and see if they have a 3rd base prospect who is available.

Looking at teams who are have third baseman who aren’t going anywhere:

Colorado, San Diego, Oakland, Angels, Phillies, White Sox, Phillies, Twins, Reds, Pitt, Red Sox, Astros and probably Cle, although Ramirez can play second too.

Thats at least 12 teams.  Go after those teams.

The best prospect from these teams is Nolan Jones, from Cleveland.  Cleveland is pinching pennies though and I would think they keep Jones and move Ramirez back to second before trading him (or put Jones in the OF or something like that).  
 

I would still inquire about him if I were them though.  I would guess they trade Lindor in the offseason, so they probably address needs in that deal but still, I’m trying to make a deal here and putting someone like Santander as part of it.

However, let’s assume that Jones isn’t going anywhere, which is probably the proper assumption.

Isaac Parades from Detroit would be a possibility.  He got some time in the majors this year.  He’s only 21.  Scouting reports say he has good command of the strike zone, needs to develop power..good defender it seems.  With the Tigers want Tork to be at third, he would have to move positions.  Certainly a possibility but perhaps he is available in the right deal?

Jonathan India from Cinci is a possibility as well. He was the 5th overall pick in the 2018 draft.  Reds have a good third baseman in Suarez now, so they could move India, who has disappointed a little bit and dealt with injuries.  
 

Abraham Toro could also be available.  He has Bregman in front of him.  Got as high as the 6th ranked prospects (according to mlb.com) in the Astros organization.  Elias should know a lot about him.  Has just under 200 ML at bats and hasn’t done much but seems to be able to handle third base defensively.  He has a good upside with the bat.  He turns 24 in December.  He would seem to represent the most likely to acquire on this list.

[weams]

41 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Did the COVID situation really put the team on the edge of solvency?

I’d assume so. Yes. 

[luismatos4prez]

I think Hanser Alberto could play a fine 3B. It's easier to find a 2B on the FA Market (Schoop, Villar, Profar, etc.) than a 3B.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, weams said:

I’d assume so. Yes. 

I think it's too early to assume that, but this offseason should tell us a lot by what they do with Iglesius' team option (should be an obvious choice) and the arbitration eligible players.

[Tony-OH]

6 minutes ago, luismatos4prez said:

I think Hanser Alberto could play a fine 3B. It's easier to find a 2B on the FA Market (Schoop, Villar, Profar, etc.) than a 3B.

If the choice is between Ruiz and Alberto at 3B next year, honestly, Ruiz is the better overall player at that position. XWOBA is what I consider the best new statistic to gauge a hitters value as it takes the expected weighted on base ability of the player. I like to look at actual WOBA vs XWOBA.

In 2020:
Player           WOBA        XWOBA
MLB AVG     .317             .321
Alberto         .297             .253
Ruiz              .298             .269

Both are clearly below average offensive players though Alberto brings an empty average to the plate while Ruiz provides more pop. Defensively I think they both are slightly below average third basemans but Ruiz gets the nod with a better arm.

Basically this is a position the team needs to improve at in the future as neither Ruiz or Alberto are anything more than stops gaps.

[Just Regular]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

If the choice is between Ruiz and Alberto at 3B next year, honestly, Ruiz is the better overall player at that position. XWOBA is what I consider the best new statistic to gauge a hitters value as it takes the expected weighted on base ability of the player. I like to look at actual WOBA vs XWOBA.

Ditto.

I like looking at the TEAM level stats after the year, and it is a reality check on any offensive bullishness that we were 27th in xwOBA.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/expected_statistics?type=batter-team&year=2020&position=&team=&min=q

The 2020 Orioles benefited from the 2nd biggest differential to land mid-pack in wOBA, and I'd heard earlier in the year the team's cluster luck was running good to put out some extra runs.   Some of why, aside from the obvious fandom joys, I'm so keen for Rutschman and Yusniel to join Santander and Mountcastle circa May 1.  Then with Mancini the team might field more than half a credible lineup, and Iglesias, Hays and Alberto can be the role players they might be rather than needing to be marketed as RoY candidates and batting champions.

[Philip]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

If the choice is between Ruiz and Alberto at 3B next year, honestly, Ruiz is the better overall player at that position. XWOBA is what I consider the best new statistic to gauge a hitters value as it takes the expected weighted on base ability of the player. I like to look at actual WOBA vs XWOBA.

In 2020:
Player           WOBA        XWOBA
MLB AVG     .317             .321
Alberto         .297             .253
Ruiz              .298             .269

Both are clearly below average offensive players though Alberto brings an empty average to the plate while Ruiz provides more pop. Defensively I think they both are slightly below average third basemans but Ruiz gets the nod with a better arm.

Basically this is a position the team needs to improve at in the future as neither Ruiz or Alberto are anything more than stops gaps.

Thank you as always for that additional information. I think it is clear that if Mike wants to improve the infield defense, and with a bunch of young pitching, he will need to, he will have to go outside the organization. I never thought that Ruiz had any trade value, but I thought that Alberto might have some. But it seems that he joins Ruiz and Nunez in the “No trade value” group.

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I think it's too early to assume that, but this offseason should tell us a lot by what they do with Iglesius' team option (should be an obvious choice) and the arbitration eligible players.

I don't think that is that much of a question.

I expect Elias to pay the guys that help the team like Iglesias, Mancini,  Santander and Valaika.   Armstrong can stay if he wants to take a team friendly deal before arbitration.  (600-800K).   Alberto, Severino, Nunez are more a question of if he offers arbitration does it help or hurt their trade value.  

Elias does not have to make a decision on Ruiz until later in the offseason.  Plenty of time to see if he can find a cheap alternative that is better.   He will be looking to trade Cobb and is probably wilingl be send half his salary with him to save the other half.

The goal is to keep the team cheap while allowing the young players to grow and get playing time.  Give some new players opportunities from inside and outside the organization.    And improve the defense.

JMG.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

I don't think that is that much of a question.

I expect Elias to pay the guys that help the team like Iglesias, Mancini,  Santander and Valaika.   Armstrong can stay if he wants to take a team friendly deal before arbitration.  (600-800K).   Alberto, Severino, Nunez are more a question of if he offers arbitration does it help or hurt their trade value.  

Elias does not have to make a decision on Ruiz until later in the offseason.  Plenty of time to see if he can find a cheap alternative that is better.   He will be looking to trade Cobb and is probably wilingl be send half his salary with him to save the other half.

The goal is to keep the team cheap while allowing the young players to grow and get playing time.  Give some new players opportunities from inside and outside the organization.    And improve the defense.

JMG.

I think you missed my point. My point was how Elias handles these guys this offseason should tell us if the team is in such financial dire straits that two coaches had to be let go because of their contracts.

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think you missed my point. My point was how Elias handles these guys this offseason should tell us if the team is in such financial dire straits that two coaches had to be let go because of their contracts.

I don't think the team is in that bad a financial situation.  I think ownership wants to pull more capital from the team.