#1 2020 PROSPECT: ADLEY RUTSCHMAN

[Tony-OH]

Name: Adley Rutschman (click link for full 2019 scouting report)
Position: C
Age as of 6/30/20: 22
Bats: Switch
Throws: Right
Current Grade: 45
Future Grade: 65
Ceiling Grade: 70
Most Likely Future Role: Starting Catcher, occasional All-Star
Ceiling: Starting Catching, Perennial All-Star

Career Stats
Quick Scouting Report Update: Despite no 2020 minor league season, this 22-year old receiver solidified his status as one of the best prospects in baseball with an outstanding auxiliary camp. Mentioned by several observers that he was by and far the best player in camp against very experienced pitching that included pitchers with major league experienced. Defensively he threw well and his overall defensive play was outstanding.

http://www.orioleshangout.com/2020/10/12/1-2020-prospect-adley-rutschman/

[HowAboutThat]

Of course.

[Tony-OH]

35 minutes ago, Philip said:

Of course.

Haha. Hence why he was #1 on all of the options. The one thing I was told last year there were whispers of a shoulder issue after being drafted but this year he seemed to be throwing well and with no restrictions. 

[Frobby]

Any reason you downgraded his current value from 50 to 45 and his future value from 70 to 65?   Just feeling more conservative this year?

[Tony-OH]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Any reason you downgraded his current value from 50 to 45 and his future value from 70 to 65?   Just feeling more conservative this year?

Pretty much. While 70 is mostly his ceiling, it's tough to give that to him as his most-likely outcome with so many things that can happen, especially to a catcher. Same with his current value, it's hard to say he's ready to be an average major leaguer right now without ever seeing him have an at bat above low-a ball.

[Just Regular]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?pos=C&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=pos_round&from_type_jc=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0

Browsing the list of biggest bonuses for C ever, it pretty much looks like his cohort is four other guys.

Cautionary tale Tony Sanchez I learned looking at his draft year was a Kjerstad-ish move, so I think he misses substantially on pedigree, as does contemporary Langeliers.

Mauer I noticed basically same career AVG/OPS as Posey in 50% more PA (before the rest of Posey's decline phase) - postseason results and legacy, man.

Mauer was a prep, so timeline wise, I think Wieters, Posey, Bart and Zunino (Dempsey moment in progress?) are all the relevant comps I can find.  

MLB debut dates, if I re-measure as if all were 2019 draftees:

Zunino = 6/12/2020, perhaps an infamous rush

Posey = 9/11/2020 for cup of coffee, not for good until Memorial Day 2021.

Bart = 5/1/2021 (guesstimating for Team Game #27).  Imagine Orioles FO rooting for a very healthy Posey next spring; Bart could still have to go back like Posey did for two last months.

Wieters = 5/29/2021

Certainly the 2021 Orioles are more like the 2009 Orioles than those Giants playoff contenders, and mono + covid muddies the water, but all next year would be somewhat new ground.  Incumbent on Adley though to build his franchise of Matt Wieters Facts to make the case.

[tntoriole]

On 10/12/2020 at 8:24 PM, OrioleDog said:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?pos=C&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=pos_round&from_type_jc=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0

Browsing the list of biggest bonuses for C ever, it pretty much looks like his cohort is four other guys.

Cautionary tale Tony Sanchez I learned looking at his draft year was a Kjerstad-ish move, so I think he misses substantially on pedigree, as does contemporary Langeliers.

Mauer I noticed basically same career AVG/OPS as Posey in 50% more PA (before the rest of Posey's decline phase) - postseason results and legacy, man.

Mauer was a prep, so timeline wise, I think Wieters, Posey, Bart and Zunino (Dempsey moment in progress?) are all the relevant comps I can find.  

MLB debut dates, if I re-measure as if all were 2019 draftees:

Zunino = 6/12/2020, perhaps an infamous rush

Posey = 9/11/2020 for cup of coffee, not for good until Memorial Day 2021.

Bart = 5/1/2021 (guesstimating for Team Game #27).  Imagine Orioles FO rooting for a very healthy Posey next spring; Bart could still have to go back like Posey did for two last months.

Wieters = 5/29/2021

Certainly the 2021 Orioles are more like the 2009 Orioles than those Giants playoff contenders, and mono + covid muddies the water, but all next year would be somewhat new ground.  Incumbent on Adley though to build his franchise of Matt Wieters Facts to make the case.

Maybe Adley will become Johnny Bench....lol

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Maybe Adley will become Johnny Bench....lol

Why would Adley give up switch hitting?

[tntoriole]

30 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Why would Adley give up switch hitting?

Lol...he can hit his 389 homers from both sides....that would be OK.