Elias answers some questions.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

No ... The Orioles strategy was clear an under slot player so they could invest that dough in the 4th and 5th rounds. The scenario played out that way so please dont try to claim that he was the BPA at #2. You can't have it both ways!

We is the mouse in his pocket. There is no telling exactly what the Orioles thought. They would never tell you that they took a lower ranked player to save money to overslot guys later. What they did was obviously lip service.

Was Kjerstand the 10th best player? Was he closer on the Orioles list to 2 than 10? I dont think we will ever know....But we know they saved 2.5 million by selected him rather than Martin

I think you don’t have a clue as to what their thought process was.

I think they saw what many saw..that there was no slam dunk pick after Tork and even Tork had his warts. I think it’s possible the Os valued Kjerstad over anyone and I think it’s possible/likely that they saw so little separation between Martin, Lacy, Kjerstad, etc..that they took the one that allowed them to do more later in the draft.

Personally, I’m glad they didn’t go Martin.  I would have been fine if they did but I think there were a lot of question marks there.  I feel Kjerstad has a higher floor.  
 

I may have preferred they go Veen over everyone but I get why they didn’t.  

[Just Regular]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Unless Orioledog works for the O's I think he was trying to include the Oriole fandom.

Not since pulling the tarp in the 90's, but exactly.  Any of us who are here in December 2020 for goodness sakes would have to have a truly arcane sort of motivation to be here for any other reason!

I agree with RollTIde the 1-2 and 1-10 gap is significant, but I think even at 1-10 you want your baseline NCAA SEC guy to be able to do something by the end of Year 2.  If by September 2022, Yusniel and Santander are still clearly outplaying him, that's quite the double-edged sword depending on the reason why.

I suspect there's at least a couple of Martin, Meyer, Lacy, Hancock, Gonzales who would have been passed over for Kjerstad even if they were amenable to the $5.2M number.   I look forward circa 2028 to Luke-OH returning to tell us the story of Kjerstad over Gonzales.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Not since pulling the tarp in the 90's, but exactly.  Any of us who are here in December 2020 for goodness sakes would have to have a truly arcane sort of motivation to be here for any other reason!

I agree with RollTIde the 1-2 and 1-10 gap is significant, but I think even at 1-10 you want your baseline NCAA SEC guy to be able to do something by the end of Year 2.  If by September 2022, Yusniel and Santander are still clearly outplaying him, that's quite the double-edged sword depending on the reason why.

I suspect there's at least a couple of Martin, Meyer, Lacy, Hancock, Gonzales who would have been passed over for Kjerstad even if they were amenable to the $5.2M number.   I look forward circa 2028 to Luke-OH returning to tell us the story of Kjerstad over Gonzales.

I think the other thing to consider is, rightly or wrongly, Elias wasn’t considering a pitcher at 2.  
 

So, it was Gonzalez, Kjerstad, Martin and maybe Veen in consideration.

[Philip]

Ooops

Edited December 14, 2020 by Philip
Wrong comment

[Philip]

So here’s a question:

Mike says he’s not focused on winning, and that’s ok.

but somewhere he must have a sense of how much improvement he expects to see this year. I refuse to believe he doesn’t care whether we win 40 or 70.

And I can’t believe he has no expectation of X improvement translating into a certain number of Wins of improvement, Even though several key players are still in the minors.

I would really like to know what he is expecting from the club this year, and bearing in mind that there is a difference between expecting a certain number of wins, and focusing on winning to the exclusion of the plan, I will refuse to believe that he does not have a target number in mind.

Edited December 14, 2020 by Philip

[Frobby]

38 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

No ... The Orioles strategy was clear an under slot player so they could invest that dough in the 4th and 5th rounds. The scenario played out that way so please dont try to claim that he was the BPA at #2. You can't have it both ways!

We is the mouse in his pocket. There is no telling exactly what the Orioles thought. They would never tell you that they took a lower ranked player to save money to overslot guys later. What they did was obviously lip service.

Was Kjerstand the 10th best player? Was he closer on the Orioles list to 2 than 10? I dont think we will ever know....But we know they saved 2.5 million by selected him rather than Martin

I assume the O’s thought Kjerstad was very good value for what they had to pay him.  That’s the only way the strategy makes sense.    But I doubt they thought he was the no. 2 talent.   

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, Philip said:

So here’s a question:

Mike says he’s not focused on winning, and that’s ok.

but somewhere he must have a sense of how much improvement he expects to see this year. I refuse to believe he doesn’t care whether we win 40 or 70.

And I can’t believe he has no expectation of X improvement translating into a certain number of Wins of improvement, Even though several key players are still in the minors.

I would really like to know what he is expecting from the club this year, and bearing in mind that there is a difference between expecting a certain number of wins, and focusing on winning to the exclusion of the plan, I will refuse to believe that he does not have a target number in mind.

I think he’s expecting improvement from the young players.  Whatever comes from that win wise is secondary.

[Roll Tide]

21 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I assume the O’s thought Kjerstad was very good value for what they had to pay him.  That’s the only way the strategy makes sense.    But I doubt they thought he was the no. 2 talent.   

Thank you !   And if Kjerstad and his camp thought he was #2 they dont sign for 2.5 less.

[LookinUp]

On 12/12/2020 at 9:25 AM, Sports Guy said:

The real question is, what do you do with them when Diaz is up?  Probably splitting between first and DH.

You're putting a lot of stock into a Diaz promotion. I hope you're right, but the real question is whether he truly pushes his way onto the team. I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that he's really that good.

If he doesn't push his way onto this team, he may be promoted anyway and get some ABs, but he's not the guy who lets you trade Santander or build a new plan for Mountcastle and Mancini.

38 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think he’s expecting improvement from the young players.  Whatever comes from that win wise is secondary.

I do think he has to be thinking about the next steps too though. You don't often promote a pitcher, for example, and expect him to anchor a staff in a playoff chase. That argues for trying to get the studs some innings and experience this year, IMO.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

You're putting a lot of stock into a Diaz promotion. I hope you're right, but the real question is whether he truly pushes his way onto the team. I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that he's really that good.

If he doesn't push his way onto this team, he may be promoted anyway and get some ABs, but he's not the guy who lets you trade Santander or build a new plan for Mountcastle and Mancini.

I do think he has to be thinking about the next steps too though. You don't often promote a pitcher, for example, and expect him to anchor a staff in a playoff chase. That argues for trying to get the studs some innings and experience this year, IMO.

You trade Santander because he’s not likely part of your future.  Diaz is clearly someone they like.  Will he make it?  Who knows.  But if he pushes his way up here, he definitely gets lots of at bats and he is definitely the superior OFer over those guys.  But no, of course it’s not a forgone conclusion.  Basically nothing is.

Hes thinking about the next steps but doing nothing with them.

[LookinUp]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You trade Santander because he’s not likely part of your future.  

He seems as likely as anyone to be part of our future unless the O's are no longer a team that can afford to keep mid-level free agents. 

Don't get me wrong, in a perfect world we have Diaz, Kjerstad and Hays forcing their way into the lineup and a ton of financial flexibility. I just don't believe that will happen. So then you have Mountcastle out there. Good. You still need a DH. 

I understand and agree that he may be gone, but it's not a foregone conclusion.

[Sports Guy]

26 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

He seems as likely as anyone to be part of our future unless the O's are no longer a team that can afford to keep mid-level free agents. 

Don't get me wrong, in a perfect world we have Diaz, Kjerstad and Hays forcing their way into the lineup and a ton of financial flexibility. I just don't believe that will happen. So then you have Mountcastle out there. Good. You still need a DH. 

I understand and agree that he may be gone, but it's not a foregone conclusion.

Obviously it’s not set in stone.

But give Elias truth serum and no way he hopes he is part of the future.  

[Frobby]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Obviously it’s not set in stone.

But give Elias truth serum and no way he hopes he is part of the future.  

I think you’re a little too down on Santander.    He’s under control for four years, his age 26-29 seasons.  I expect the O’s to be a good team for part of that time.    He’s been worth 3.1 rWAR over his last 130 games, spanning two seasons.    So, it’s not a huge stretch to think he could be a 3 WAR player over the next few years.   I personally don’t peg him quite that high, but it’s far from impossible and we’ll probably get a better read on that this year.   I would not definitely say he’s not part of the team’s future.   

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think you’re a little too down on Santander.    He’s under control for four years, his age 26-29 seasons.  I expect the O’s to be a good team for part of that time.    He’s been worth 3.1 rWAR over his last 130 games, spanning two seasons.    So, it’s not a huge stretch to think he could be a 3 WAR player over the next few years.   I personally don’t peg him quite that high, but it’s far from impossible and we’ll probably get a better read on that this year.   I would not definitely say he’s not part of the team’s future.   

The question is, when does Elias expect to start winning?  If 2021 isn't about wins is 2022?  If 2022 isn't why keep Santander around?  He'll be getting expensive by 2023.

[LookinUp]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

The question is, when does Elias expect to start winning?  If 2021 isn't about wins is 2022?  If 2022 isn't why keep Santander around?  He'll be getting expensive by 2023.

Are we going to be a team that can't have anyone who's expensive? I don't think so. I think the question is about who else is competing with him. If he's clearly the best internal option at the time, you pay a little for him. Particularly when we'd theoretically be a team with next to nothing in terms of external payroll added.