How the vaccine effects the baseball season(updated on 1/3)

[wildcard]

Just general numbers I am pulling together: (All numbers are estimates)

The US government has purchased:

Pfizer 200m doses that protects 100m people,  effectiveness 95%

Moderna 200m doses that protects 100m people, effectiveness 95%

AstraZeneca 300m doses that protect 150m people, effectiveness unclear, being delayed while more trials are done.  Early results 70--90% effective

Johnson and Johnson  100m doses with the right to buy 200m more protecting up to 300m people.  effectiveness 97% in early studies

Eli Lilly under 1m doses that  protect between 250k to under 1m people.  Effectiveness unknown at this time.

A third group of vaccines, one by Novavax Inc. and the other by Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline Plc, could be authorized in the spring for use in April or May, he said. “Those can also produce hundreds of millions of doses,” Slaoui said.

So enough to protect the 330m Americans.

When:

By April 100m doses of Pfizer and 100m doses of Moderna that will protect  a total of 100m people

April - June  100m doses of Moderna  protects 50m people

Beginning in April AstraZeneca projected approval and distribution to protect 150m people.  Unclear how many per month

June- July  Pfizer delivers 100m doses to protect 50m people.

No have not found information on when the Johnson and Johnson vaccine will be rolled out but they have how current applying for approval by the FDA which is expected in late Jan/early Feb.  

Who gets it first is determined by each state but roughly the priorities  are:

20m Healthcare workers in January

50m People over 65 by April 

40m People  under 65 with pre-existing conditions (30m by April)  (10m in May)

50m Essential workers (April to June)

90m General population  adults (June- Sept)

80m under 18 years old (before Sept)  Trials not done on children yet.

30m non vaxxers and 10m of their children may not want the vaccine from reports

Effect on MLB: (Best Guess)

The delay of the approval and distribution  of the AstraZeneca vaccine that was projected for January now to begin in April to cover 150m people should be a  big deal to MLB.  How fast it can to rolled out is even bigger.   Also second order  that will cover  50m people of Pfizer not being available until June- July could effect general population coverage. 

I  am guessing that the new administration will be discouraging crowds attending parks until people are vaccinated.   Unknown how children will be advised considering children are less effected by virus.  Will they need to be vaccinated before coming to park?

When the Johnson and Johnson rollout is announced it could change the outlook.

These numbers and people estimates are from several google searches.    Be glad to see any corrections that you may have.

What do you think?

Note: J &J information updated on Jan 3rd.

 

 

[Frobby]

Best guess based on your assumptions: in many states, people will not be allowed to attend large sporting events until Fall at the earliest.   MLB will stall their season as long as they can.  

But it’s really hard to speculate.  It could depend on how quickly infection/hospitalization/death rates go down.   There are political considerations that come into play that can’t really be discussed here under Board rules.   
 

[scOtt]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Best guess based on your assumptions: in many states, people will not be allowed to attend large sporting events until Fall at the earliest.   MLB will stall their season as long as they can.  

But it’s really hard to speculate.  It could depend on how quickly infection/hospitalization/death rates go down.   There are political considerations that come into play that can’t really be discussed here under Board rules.   
 

And then a Strike/Lockout in 2022! GOOD TIMES!

[Frobby]

Just now, scOtt said:

And then a Strike/Lockout in 2022! GOOD TIMES!

As I said before, I’m hoping the jolt from these two disrupted seasons brings the owners and players to their senses.   Neither side is going to be in the mood to disrupt the revenue stream.    The cost of doing that will be higher to both sides than it would have been.   But, we’ll see.   

[Moose Milligan]

https://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/index.php?/topic/39810-vaccinefans-in-the-standsrevenue/

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

https://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/index.php?/topic/39810-vaccinefans-in-the-standsrevenue/

Was thinking the same thing.  This is at least the second and perhaps the third thread WC has started on this topic.  Not sure why we there is a need for multiple new threads on the same topic.

[wildcard]

42 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Was thinking the same thing.  This is at least the second and perhaps the third thread WC has started on this topic.  Not sure why we there is a need for multiple new threads on the same topic.

Same reason you post the same thing in every thread.  And people complain about it all the time.  Doesn't stop you.   At least mine was a month apart.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Same reason you post the same thing in every thread.  And people complain about it all the time.  Doesn't stop you.   At least mine was a month apart.

I’m talking about things within the frame of the discussion.  I can’t help that every discussion is essentially on the same topics.

That being said, cluttering the board with new threads on the same topic over and over again makes the board more disorganized and pushes down topics that matter.  
 

[wildcard]

59 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

https://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/index.php?/topic/39810-vaccinefans-in-the-standsrevenue/

Well, you made me go look for it.  Its on page 9.  Last posted to on Dec 1st.   So it was a while ago.

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m talking about things within the frame of the discussion.  I can’t help that every discussion is essentially on the same topics.

That being said, cluttering the board with new threads on the same topic over and over again makes the board more disorganized and pushes down topics that matter.  
 

Sure you can help it.   Control yourself.

  I last posted on this topic a month ago.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, wildcard said:

Sure you can help it.   Control yourself.

  I last posted on this topic a month ago.

Great...so why not post this in that thread?  Why start a new one?  

[Frobby]

24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Great...so why not post this in that thread?  Why start a new one?  

Because Tony locked that one.   My guess is this one will get locked too.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Because Tony locked that one.   My guess is this one will get locked too.

Well if he locked it and that is WC reasoning (which I doubt or else he would have said it), that’s fair.  Thank you for pointing that out.

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Because Tony locked that one.   My guess is this one will get locked too.

I doubt it was Tony.

[Frobby]

Just now, wildcard said:

I doubt it was Tony.

Perhaps not.    I know Tony has a pretty short fuse when it comes to Covid-related discussions on the main board.   But it could have been weams or another mod.