Comparing the AL East Farm Systems - Fangraphs’ Take So Far

[NCRaven]

19 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

With probably just 1 or 2 more punted years all left on the ledger, I guess the book is kind of closed on whether Buck Showalter a net asset or net liability for the organization?   It'd be quite something if say he were hired as a front office consultant today.

Also in the category of psychobabble, I can kind of imagine 2021 lining up like 2010 except with Adley Rutschman (and Grayson Rodriguez?) as the Buck character.   4 months bad, 2 months good; 32-73 and 34-23 makes 66-96 giving you Dylan Bundy not Gerrit Cole (uh oh...)

I think Means, Santander, etc can keep it better than 32-73, and the second half team could be legitimately interesting.   

If Norfolk Nevin can show out, I could even be sold on the notion he's a superior 2022 cost benefit value over Mancini if that ~8M can go somewhere else on the roster.   My Glass Half Full there can maaybe bat 7th and Renato for 0-3 before definitely being non-tendered for RBI's, but first there's a AAA MVP to try and defend as a matter of organizational pride.  It sucks to be a R/R 1B.

I suppose next CBA a salary floor would be bad news, requiring Rays to retain a few of their better players.   I do look for Peak Rutschman Teams to be able to defeat anyone limiting themselves to 0-4's.   Just gotta figure out getting that $250M+ badly spent up in the Bronx four years out, and outpitch those Jays.

I have to admit, I rarely understand a single thing you write.  "I do look for Peak Rutschman Teams to be able to defeat anyone limiting themselves to 0-4's."  What does that mean?

[Number5]

1 hour ago, NCRaven said:

I have to admit, I rarely understand a single thing you write.  "I do look for Peak Rutschman Teams to be able to defeat anyone limiting themselves to 0-4's."  What does that mean?

LOL.  Yeah, sometimes I feel like I'm reading one of those literal translations from Japanese.  

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, NCRaven said:

I have to admit, I rarely understand a single thing you write.  "I do look for Peak Rutschman Teams to be able to defeat anyone limiting themselves to 0-4's."  What does that mean?

The Rays almost always trade their James Shields, David Prices, Chris Archers, Blake Snells before they earn Arb2-based salaries in their 5th year (maybe 50% of market value) or Arb3-based salaries (~75%) in their 6th year.   Often those 4th and 5th year salaries get fixed in early extensions giving cost certainty, and a club option for 1-2 free agent years at some midpoint the Player and Team can both accept.

If John Means or Anthony Santander is seriously good, I think they will be helping us beat Tampa in a few years.   If Rays, they would probably be getting traded for tomorrow's DL Hall then.

[SteveA]

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Did they have 14 consecutive losing seasons?

Nope just 10.   And they were worse losers than us in every one of those 10 years.

In the 23 years the two franchises have been in existence, we were the better team in 14 of them.   So take that Rays!

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, SteveA said:

Nope just 10.   And they were worse losers than us in every one of those 10 years.

In the 23 years the two franchises have been in existence, we were the better team in 14 of them.   So take that Rays!

Amateurs stopping after only a decade of incompetence.  No commitment.

[drjohnnyfeva]

3 hours ago, MCO'sFan said:

I think that TB has proven that it's better to replace them (assuming you have the prospects) than to let them go via FA. The Os will never be able to keep someone like a Snell so they need to do the exact same thing. They need to be smart about it and have the scouting and PD departments to pull it off. They have not had that in the past. I am more optimistic that Elias can/has a good PD plan. 

 

3 hours ago, LookinUp said:

In the off chance that they ever have a short term need that we can fill, yes!

They really can do whatever they want. It's really the argument some here make for trading everyone when they get value. Do that 2-3 more years and suddenly we're stacked [kind of] like Tampa and set up for a decade. Try to be more aggressive with buying/selling and we could even accelerate that.

I just don't think Elias is allowed to play that latter game.

Whatever the future looks like in drafting and acquiring players internationally, I believe the idea/ practice described above is essential to our long term sustainability as year in and year out competitors.  Excellent posts!  We have to be willing not to keep every star we might create.  There's sometimes value in dealing; early better than late or not at all.

[Philip]

6 hours ago, Number5 said:

LOL.  Yeah, sometimes I feel like I'm reading one of those literal translations from Japanese.  

make sure the auto generated English captions are on

[BohKnowsBmore]

On 1/28/2021 at 11:04 AM, Frobby said:

 

Boston has 47 players at 35+, a healthy number, but only two prospects ranked at 50 and nobody above that.   https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-47-prospects-boston-red-sox/

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-47-prospects-new-york-yankees/

NYY with 47 players at 35+, just like the Red Sox. However, they have 8 guys at 50 (with nobody above that). They then have two 45+ and four 45.

[LTO's]

1 hour ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-47-prospects-new-york-yankees/

NYY with 47 players at 35+, just like the Red Sox. However, they have 8 guys at 50 (with nobody above that). They then have two 45+ and four 45.

Yeesh that's a bad look for the Red Sox....

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-47-prospects-new-york-yankees/

NYY with 47 players at 35+, just like the Red Sox. However, they have 8 guys at 50 (with nobody above that). They then have two 45+ and four 45.

Eight at 50 is a very good total.  In 2020 Fangraphs only ranked 121 players at 50 or higher, so that’s four per team on average.   Last year the Yankees had five.   

Note that 7 of those 8 were foreign amateur signings.    
 

[BohKnowsBmore]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Eight at 50 is a very good total.  In 2020 Fangraphs only ranked 121 players at 50 or higher, so that’s four per team on average.   Last year the Yankees had five.   

Note that 7 of those 8 were foreign amateur signings.    
 

On that note it seems like (and writer mentions this) a very high variance group of 50s.

[weams]

 

[Yossarian]

How beneficial is having that deep of a farm system?  There are a finite number of spots on a big league roster.  Are you going to keep highly rated guys with high big league ceilings in the minors for 10 or 12 years until a roster spot opens up?  The only thing you can do with an overabundance of talent in the minors is promote them to the majors (with a limited number of spots available) or trade for younger guys.  When you trade for younger guys, you run the risk of getting prospects that aren't as good or don't develop as hoped in return.  I think it is important to have a strong farm system with highly-rated players at each level, but there is a point of diminishing returns on that.  You're going to have to deal players with high potential eventually.

[OriolesMagic83]

On 1/28/2021 at 1:09 PM, LookinUp said:

In the off chance that they ever have a short term need that we can fill, yes!

They really can do whatever they want. It's really the argument some here make for trading everyone when they get value. Do that 2-3 more years and suddenly we're stacked [kind of] like Tampa and set up for a decade. Try to be more aggressive with buying/selling and we could even accelerate that.

I just don't think Elias is allowed to play that latter game.

I think Elias is doing exactly that.  He is definitely open to trading any player that has value.  You would think he would hang onto Rutschmann or a similar highly ranked player, but he likely views other prospects/young major leaguers as replaceable. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

4 hours ago, Yossarian said:

How beneficial is having that deep of a farm system?  There are a finite number of spots on a big league roster.  Are you going to keep highly rated guys with high big league ceilings in the minors for 10 or 12 years until a roster spot opens up?  The only thing you can do with an overabundance of talent in the minors is promote them to the majors (with a limited number of spots available) or trade for younger guys.  When you trade for younger guys, you run the risk of getting prospects that aren't as good or don't develop as hoped in return.  I think it is important to have a strong farm system with highly-rated players at each level, but there is a point of diminishing returns on that.  You're going to have to deal players with high potential eventually.

You can also trade them for ML talent.