Effect of Tatis deal on Adley

[Sports Guy]

The Orioles have never been a team that hands out pre arbitration long term deals.  You can argue that, outside of Manny, they haven’t really had a player in recent memory to do that for.

Rutschman should change that.  If he is as good as they believe him to be, locking him up now, in hopes to save some money later is the smart thing to do.  (Btw, when I say now, I mean after you have actually seen him play some more although if they decided to sign him tomorrow, I would be ok with it)

The question is, how much do you pay him and for how long?  Part of the reason I think people are wrong about him not debuting until next year is his age.  He is already 23.  That’s not exactly super young for a stud, MVP level prospect who is seemingly ready for the majors.  We don’t need to keep waiting to see him.  He’s an advanced college bat that, by all accounts, would be one of the better catchers in the league right now.   What we don’t know is, how long can he catch for and will his bat play up well at first.  We have heard the one scout quoted as saying he thinks he’s Texeiria.  If he’s that good, you don’t have any qualms about extending him for 10 or so years.  If you have any question about his bat, you try to get him to sign an 8 year deal, buying out 2 free agency years.  
 

As a C, he easily could jump on that.  It’s a position that wears you down and causes injury issues, so getting that security could be huge.  Otoh, if he feels that he will smoothly transition to first and that his bat plays up, he may risk it.  
 

Acuna got an 8/100 deal after playing 2/3 of a season.  The Braves can push it to a 10/124 deal.  Acuna probably made a mistake signing that deal, especially after seeing what Tatis got after just 2 years.  
 

Adley also won’t get close to the Tatis because of age and the wear and tear for C.

If we go with the normal structure and we just go on an assumption that Adley is an elite C, he figures to roughly make about 40-45M in his 6 seasons.  Posey signed a 9/167 deal in his 5th year of service time.  At that time, 20ishM a year was the going rate foe MVP candidates but that number has been pushed past 30M now.    If you are taking on the risk, you are usually allotted a discount, so let’s say the Os can get him to sign for 27M a year in his post arb years.  That basically gets you to the 8/100 deal Acuna signed.  
 

Would the Os do that?  Should the Os do that?   Would Adley?  Does the Tatis deal enter his mind?  Maybe not believing he can get 300+M but perhaps thinking he should get 200ishM?  

Tex signed his deal with the Yankees when he was 28.  After 8 years, Adley would probably be entering his age 32 season.  Would he get another 4-6 year mega deal?  
 

Yadier Molina has made a a lot of money in his 30s as a C but he has been able to stay at the position.  I don’t think Adley will do the same.

 

[Can_of_corn]

I don't think the Tatis deal in any way shape or form impacts what the O's will do with Adley.

[Ruzious]

The Acuna deal was highway robbery by the Braves.  He was already ROY and 12th in MVP voting.  Tatis got a far far better deal.  Gotta factor in that Adley's older than both and hasn't done anything, and there's a much higher injury risk with catchers - as you said.  I'd wait a year to consider locking him up.  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Ruzious said:

The Acuna deal was highway robbery by the Braves.  He was already ROY and 12th in MVP voting.  Tatis got a far far better deal.  Gotta factor in that Adley's older than both and hasn't done anything, and there's a much higher injury risk with catchers - as you said.  I'd wait a year to consider locking him up.  

All a year is going to tell you is if he can hit AA pitching.

[Frobby]

I think it’s too soon to think about a long term deal.   I remember JTrea wanted to sign Wieters up long term for $100 mm — he’s ended up making about $62 mm in his career.    

Catchers in general don’t get huge contracts compared to the other positions.  Too much wear and tear.    

But, if Adley shows this year that he’s an upper tier big league catcher, I wouldn’t hesitate to talk with him about a long term deal.   

 

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think the Tatis deal in any way shape or form impacts what the O's will do with Adley.

I agree.

Need to see how his bat plays before thinking about any of this, anyway.  If the bat is that good, how much longer before you move him off catcher to first base to get him more at bats and ease the wear and tear on him?  

 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

I agree.

Need to see how his bat plays before thinking about any of this, anyway.  If the bat is that good, how much longer before you move him off catcher to first base to get him more at bats and ease the wear and tear on him?  

 

Never, catch him into the ground and let someone else pay for his decline.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Never, catch him into the ground and let someone else pay for his decline.

Or there's that, too.

[Sports Guy]

20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think the Tatis deal in any way shape or form impacts what the O's will do with Adley.

It absolutely effects one...maybe not directly for the Os but for Adley, his agent and his mindset.  And obviously, if a deal comes together, both sides have to agree.

The other thing to consider is if the new CBA changes things.

[Moose Milligan]

Unbelievable.  Bobby Bonilla gets another payday the year AFTER Tatis's deal expires.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Never, catch him into the ground and let someone else pay for his decline.

This is an interesting thought as well.

Im going to parallel this to the Ravens and Lamar Jackson.  QBs who run a lot so not historically last long but there has never been a QB as dynamic as Lamar running, so what do you do?  Do you try to reel him in some or do you run him into the ground, not worry about having be the franchise QB for 10 years(like most teams seems to want) or do you get him to be a better pocket passer and try to preserve him More?

To me, the answer to that is, how good can he be in that role.  Adley is the same way.  Do you just  run him into the ground as a C or do you catch him a lot for 3-5 years and start to give him a lot of first base at bats?  The answer to that is, how well will his bat play up?  Is he an MVP level player at first?    
 

Obviously, we don’t know that now but if you are signing him to some 8+ year deal, I’m guessing the Os believe he can be very good at first.

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This is an interesting thought as well.

Im going to parallel this to the Ravens and Lamar Jackson.  QBs who run a lot so not historically last long but there has never been a QB as dynamic as Lamar running, so what do you do?  Do you try to reel him in some or do you run him into the ground, not worry about having be the franchise QB for 10 years(like most teams seems to want) or do you get him to be a better pocket passer and try to preserve him More?

To me, the answer to that is, how good can he be in that role.  Adley is the same way.  Do you just  run him into the ground as a C or do you catch him a lot for 3-5 years and start to give him a lot of first base at bats?  The answer to that is, how well will his bat play up?  Is he an MVP level player at first?    
 

Obviously, we don’t know that now but if you are signing him to some 8+ year deal, I’m guessing the Os believe he can be very good at first.

I'm not sure how many MVPs are awarded to first baseman anymore (the weird 2020 season aside) but if his defense is good there and the bat is elite...I'm fine with it.  If he can be a 5+ WAR player at 1B, that's pretty good.  I wouldn't worry about his defense at first base, if he's truly elite at catcher at blocking balls in the dirt, I'm sure he won't have an issue scooping throws.  He's a plenty big enough target, should have a wide radius to catch throws.  I'm not sure about what his range would be but I'm assuming he'd be quick enough.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm not sure how many MVPs are awarded to first baseman anymore (the weird 2020 season aside) but if his defense is good there and the bat is elite...I'm fine with it.  If he can be a 5+ WAR player at 1B, that's pretty good.  I wouldn't worry about his defense at first base, if he's truly elite at catcher at blocking balls in the dirt, I'm sure he won't have an issue scooping throws.  He's a plenty big enough target, should have a wide radius to catch throws.  I'm not sure about what his range would be but I'm assuming he'd be quick enough.

I didn’t say win the MVP...I’m saying plying at the level of an MVP type player..so yes, some kind of 5-7 WAR type guy.

But if he is that player at first, I don’t think the idea of running him into the ground is the way to go.  Not that you don’t catch him a lot for a while but perhaps not for 5+ years.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I didn’t say win the MVP...I’m saying plying at the level of an MVP type player..so yes, some kind of 5-7 WAR type guy.

But if he is that player at first, I don’t think the idea of running him into the ground is the way to go.  Not that you don’t catch him a lot for a while but perhaps not for 5+ years.

From what I’ve read about Adley, he has a good chance of being an elite defensive catcher.    I don’t think you give that up too easily.   

I don’t think we should get too far out ahead of ourselves, though.   Let’s see what he brings on both sides of the ball before we worry about this too much.  
 

[wildcard]

If the O's could get 6 good years from Adley that would be enough IMO.    Debut at 24 and be available for FA at 30.  Catchers passed  30 are on the decline.  And though Adley may be a very good hitter for a catcher how does anyone know if at 30 after catching for 6 years he will be a good hitter for a 1B?

The O's are building a good farm system with good player development.  After 6 year that farm system needs to produce another good catcher.   I am not for a long term deal with Adley.