Effect of Tatis deal on Adley

[webbrick2010]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Btw, this argument goes back to the discussion on if he was worth drafting #1. 
 

Im not denying his talent or upside or anything like that but do you draft a guy #1 whose value/shelf life is likely only 5 or 6 years?  
 

This is kind of rhetorical because of course you do if they can give you elite performance for those years but I’m weighing that against the idea of who else you could draft.  Witt was the other guy.  Higher risk but perhaps higher reward and a longer “shelf life”.  
 

Just an interesting thought process there, at least to me.

Im not denying his talent or upside or anything like that but do you draft a guy #1 whose value/shelf life is likely only 5 or 6 years?  

Short answer NO. With the dearth of base stealers and the potential transition to robo umpires, catcher is just not a premium position. Add into the equation that the Orioles don't have a single prospect at either SS or CF in the system and it was IMHO a bad pick. I'm telling you guys keep an eye on CJ Abrams. He'll be a starter in the bigs by 21/22 at a premium position (probably CF).

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Im not denying his talent or upside or anything like that but do you draft a guy #1 whose value/shelf life is likely only 5 or 6 years?  

Short answer NO. With the dearth of base stealers and the potential transition to robo umpires, catcher is just not a premium position. Add into the equation that the Orioles don't have a single prospect at either SS or CF in the system and it was IMHO a bad pick. I'm telling you guys keep an eye on CJ Abrams. He'll be a starter in the bigs by 21/22 at a premium position (probably CF).

If team control is for six years what's the problem?  You don't control the player past that time-frame so what difference does it make how he declines?

[Frobby]

40 minutes ago, wildcard said:

This is where the Tampa Model comes in.   Yes, I think drafting him #1 was smart.  Catching is the highest rated position.   Play him there in his good years and trade him for prospects a year before he is a FA.    Hopefully he is in demand and a couple of teams that want to sign him in FA bid for him.   The O's get some good prospects in the deal.

Tampa does it.   And it appears to working for them.

Miami traded Realmuto  after 4 years for Top  20 Prospect  Sixto Sanchez and a couple of other players.

I’m OK with most of this strategy, but what’s your basis for saying catcher is the highest rated position?   I don’t see much evidence of that.    For example, no arbitration-eligible catcher has ever made more than $10 mm.  Of the active rWAR position player leaders, no catcher ranks highest than 12th.   For a single season, Mike Piazza tops the list at 128th.   For a career, Johnny Bench is 50th.   

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m OK with most of this strategy, but what’s your basis for saying catcher is the highest rated position?   I don’t see much evidence of that.    For example, no arbitration-eligible catcher has ever made more than $10 mm.  Of the active rWAR position player leaders, no catcher ranks highest than 12th.   For a single season, Mike Piazza tops the list at 128th.   For a career, Johnny Bench is 50th.   

Highest Positional Adjustment?

https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/positional-adjustment/

[Hallas]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Highest Positional Adjustment?

https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/positional-adjustment/

I actually think that the positional adjustment undersells the scarcity of talent at catcher.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Hallas said:

I actually think that the positional adjustment undersells the scarcity of talent at catcher.

I’d imagine that it’s done purely on math.   

[Hallas]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d imagine that it’s done purely on math.   

They're based on people that moved positions.  However that doesn't capture scarcity.  Yeah, Buster Posey or Yasmani Grandal might be able to put up 5 WAR.  But if you looked for a catcher, will you actually be able to find a replacement catcher that produces a positive WAR?  While it's not impossible, I think it's much harder at catcher than at other positions, even high-demand positions like SS.

[jabba72]

4 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I actually agree with wildcard here.  The Orioles have Rutschman under team control until about age 30, depending on exactly when he's called up.  Catchers after the age of 30 are quite a bit more likely to decline than players at other positions.  Moving a catcher somewhere else later in his career to save him from the rigors of catching is often discussed, sometimes tried, but rarely works.  I'd be wary of a huge deal for Rutschman lasting into his 30s for a player who hasn't had an at bat above low A ball.  I'd have to have scouting reports that are glowing like a nuclear reactor.

If he looks like the real deal his first few months in Baltimore, we'll know if he's worth an extension or not. 

[Frobby]

55 minutes ago, Hallas said:

They're based on people that moved positions.  However that doesn't capture scarcity.  Yeah, Buster Posey or Yasmani Grandal might be able to put up 5 WAR.  But if you looked for a catcher, will you actually be able to find a replacement catcher that produces a positive WAR?  While it's not impossible, I think it's much harder at catcher than at other positions, even high-demand positions like SS.

The positional adjustments are not based on people who moved positions.   If WAR is set up the way I think it is, you should be able to get positive WAR at any position equally easily (with minor variations year to year).  For example, in 2019 there were 46 catchers with positive fWAR and at least 100 PA (out of 68 who met the 100 PA criterion).  At 1B there were 44/64, 2B 57/74, SS 47/58, 3B 59/70, OF 147/188, DH 18/26.   (Keep in mind that the way Fangraphs does these lists, the same player may be listed at multiple positions even if he did not have 100 PA at that one position.)   

[Sports Guy]

I continue to believe C defense is a vastly overrated thing in baseball, especially in an era where no one steals bases.

[Frobby]

Recent experiences with catchers in their 30’s:

Posey 699 games caught, 33.9 rWAR in his 20’s, 288 games caught, 7.9 tWAR ages 30-32 (sat out 2020 due to Covid).

Molina 1054 GC 21.5 rWAR; 935 and 18.9 ages 30-37

Suzuki 804 GC 11.7; 623 and 8.6 ages 30-36

Wieters 695 and 16.3; 380 and 2.0 ages 30-34

Lucroy 643 and 15.1; 449 and 2.7 ages 30-34

Avila 687 and 11.6;  215 and 4.6 ages 30-33

Ramos 610 and 10.7; 284 and 5.1 ages 30-32

Mauer 845 and 39.1; 76 and 16.2 ages 30-35

Martin 894 and 20.1; 685 and 18.1 ages 30-36

B. McCann 1046 and 24.3; 566 and 7.6 ages 30-35

Molina and Martin are examples of guys who kept catching past age 35 and had almost as much WAR in their 30’s as in their 20’s.   They are pretty rare cases.  

[DrungoHazewood]

18 hours ago, Hallas said:

• Or less?  Damn that's harsh.
• What does the Order of the British Empire have anything to do with baseball's CBA?

Once you're granted a title of nobility you need to move to England to fully exercise the benefits therein, so no more MLB career.

[TradeAngelos]

On 2/18/2021 at 8:25 AM, Can_of_corn said:

Never, catch him into the ground and let someone else pay for his decline.

The Oriole Way! 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:

The Oriole Way! 

Beats giving Davis a huge deal.

[Hallas]

On 2/18/2021 at 3:13 PM, Frobby said:

The positional adjustments are not based on people who moved positions.   If WAR is set up the way I think it is, you should be able to get positive WAR at any position equally easily (with minor variations year to year).  For example, in 2019 there were 46 catchers with positive fWAR and at least 100 PA (out of 68 who met the 100 PA criterion).  At 1B there were 44/64, 2B 57/74, SS 47/58, 3B 59/70, OF 147/188, DH 18/26.   (Keep in mind that the way Fangraphs does these lists, the same player may be listed at multiple positions even if he did not have 100 PA at that one position.)   

https://tht.fangraphs.com/re-examining-wars-defensive-spectrum/

https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/positional-adjustment/

Quote

The actual numbers we use are based on some calculations that were done about a decade ago that used the performance of players who moved positions.