Keith Law talks O's minor league system

[wildcard]

This is a podcast where Law talks about what he likes about the O's system and what he does not like.   He also is very clear about why he ranks the O's system 18th.   Its basically two reasons.

1.   He does not believe a team can have a top 10 ranked system without a lot of international talent.  More systems have 30% of the farm system made up of International players.  The O's have one.  Yusniel Diaz.   He says Elias is the right executive for the job but he has not had enough time to correct what has been wrong with the system for 20 years.    

2.  He did not like the O's 2020 draft.   He did not like the O's drafting Kjerstand #2.  He had him a #10.  He says he strikes out too much.   And he did not like the drafting  of  Mayo and Baumler.

Law says a lot of nice things about several of the O's prospects include DL Hall and Adam Hall.   But when I look at where he ranks O's prospects in the top 100,  Rutschman, Rodriguez, Kjerstand and Mountcastle are not ranked as high as BA ranks them.  He does not really talk about that.   Another  thing that  Law does not talk about is that 9 of the O's top 30 prospect have been acquired in trades.  Trades have certainly bolstered that O's system compared to some other teams that have not traded major leaguers for prospects.

Eutaw Street  Report:

https://eutawstreetreport.com/give-that-fan-a-podcast-ep-11-keith-law/

 

[Can_of_corn]

While I actually agree with him on #2 his #1 is just dumb.  Talent is talent.

[Frobby]

Let’s just hope he’s wrong about Kjerstad, Baumler and Mayo.   

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Let’s just hope he’s wrong about Kjerstad, Baumler and Mayo.   

He still ranks Kjerstad #85 on the top 100.

[Can_of_corn]

18 minutes ago, wildcard said:

He still ranks Kjerstad #85 on the top 100.

Which is not an optimal outcome when you spent the 1-2 pick on a guy.

[LTO's]

11 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

While I actually agree with him on #2 his #1 is just dumb.  Talent is talent.

Actually in agreement here. Not like the things are off to hot start with that draft class given the Baumler injury and Kjerstad illness. Granted, those are just bad luck and things every team deals with.  Given his infatuation with them, I cannot imagine Elias would pass on a middle infield prospect like Martin unless he had serious doubts about his defense. Curious decision for sure. Though I have read things from the BA and MLB guys that suggested that had the season been finished it's possible Kjerstad would've cemented himself as a top guy given his power from the left side. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Actually in agreement here. Not like the things are off to hot start with that draft class given the Baumler injury and Kjerstad illness. Granted, those are just bad luck and things every team deals with.  Given his infatuation with them, I cannot imagine Elias would pass on a middle infield prospect like Martin unless he had serious doubts about his defense. Curious decision for sure. Though I have read things from the BA and MLB guys that suggested that had the season been finished it's possible Kjerstad would've cemented himself as a top guy given his power from the left side. 

My guess is that the Martin number if picked second was too rich for Elias.

[Jammer7]

9 hours ago, LTO's said:

Actually in agreement here. Not like the things are off to hot start with that draft class given the Baumler injury and Kjerstad illness. Granted, those are just bad luck and things every team deals with.  Given his infatuation with them, I cannot imagine Elias would pass on a middle infield prospect like Martin unless he had serious doubts about his defense. Curious decision for sure. Though I have read things from the BA and MLB guys that suggested that had the season been finished it's possible Kjerstad would've cemented himself as a top guy given his power from the left side. 

I have mostly seen Martin listed as an OF by the Blue Jays. I know they drafted him as a SS, but that is not where he will be.

We have debated this ad nauseum, but what it comes down to is differing opinions that will not change until this plays out in a few years. After watching a good bit of video on Kjerstad, the bolded part is where I am. Elias said the same thing when he drafted him. He just needs to prove it. When he does, the same dissenting talking heads will say they thought he was great all along. Yawn...

[LookinUp]

Really interesting that the guy who wrote “Smart Baseball” gives a qualitative reason for a numerical ranking when others are quantifying the FVs of actual people and ranking accordingly.

[Sports Guy]

So Elias is the right guy for the job, yet he hates our draft, which was done by Elias. 
 

 

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

So Elias is the right guy for the job, yet he hates our draft, which was done by Elias. 
 

 

It’s almost as if he thinks there’s more to being a GM than having one good draft.   

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s almost as if he thinks there’s more to being a GM than having one good draft.   

I don’t see how you can have total trust in a guy, a guy who has barely been here relatively speaking and then question his methods and evaluation of talent.  It doesn’t make much sense.

It’s not like Elias has some history as a GM to give him the benefit of the doubt.    His only history that is really positive is working with the Astros, where he was a scout and talent evaluator and worked the draft.

 

[Tony-OH]

On 2/22/2021 at 10:01 PM, wildcard said:

This is a podcast where Law talks about what he likes about the O's system and what he does not like.   He also is very clear about why he ranks the O's system 18th.   Its basically two reasons.

1.   He does not believe a team can have a top 10 ranked system without a lot of international talent.  More systems have 30% of the farm system made up of International players.  The O's have one.  Yusniel Diaz.   He says Elias is the right executive for the job but he has not had enough time to correct what has been wrong with the system for 20 years.    

2.  He did not like the O's 2020 draft.   He did not like the O's drafting Kjerstand #2.  He had him a #10.  He says he strikes out too much.   And he did not like the drafting  of  Mayo and Baumler.

Law says a lot of nice things about several of the O's prospects include DL Hall and Adam Hall.   But when I look at where he ranks O's prospects in the top 100,  Rutschman, Rodriguez, Kjerstand and Mountcastle are not ranked as high as BA ranks them.  He does not really talk about that.   Another  thing that  Law does not talk about is that 9 of the O's top 30 prospect have been acquired in trades.  Trades have certainly bolstered that O's system compared to some other teams that have not traded major leaguers for prospects.

Eutaw Street  Report:

https://eutawstreetreport.com/give-that-fan-a-podcast-ep-11-keith-law/

 

I can understand if a scout doesn't like the guys selected, but Elias' strategy was to get three potential chances instead of one, particularly when there was no "no-brainer" at #2. if there was a Manny Machado-type sitting there I don't think the draft goes down like that, particularly if we were talking about a full draft where the team could have made a few college senior signs at #6-#10 and perhaps would have been able to afford at least one of Baumler or Mayo. 

Kjerstad is quite the enigma here for several reasons, but the worse may be that the organization hasn't even seen him play since signing him. I've heard a rumor that I won't spread about Kjerstad that it's more than the heart condition that has kept him sidelined. No idea if it's true or not and it's was probably 3rd or 4th hand information so it's nowhere near something I would repeat. 

But either way, he's a guy the organization really can't afford to miss on. Time will tell whether Elias was right or wrong in this draft, so I can't get on Law for his opinion because it's his opinion. 

BTW, I liked Asa Lacy the best at #2, but I obviously don't have all the information that Elias has. 

[Can_of_corn]

That's ominous.

[Sports Guy]

4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I can understand if a scout doesn't like the guys selected, but Elias' strategy was to get three potential chances instead of one, particularly when there was no "no-brainer" at #2. if there was a Manny Machado-type sitting there I don't think the draft goes down like that, particularly if we were talking about a full draft where the team could have made a few college senior signs at #6-#10 and perhaps would have been able to afford at least one of Baumler or Mayo. 

Kjerstad is quite the enigma here for several reasons, but the worse may be that the organization hasn't even seen him play since signing him. I've heard a rumor that I won't spread about Kjerstad that it's more than the heart condition that has kept him sidelined. No idea if it's true or not and it's was probably 3rd or 4th hand information so it's nowhere near something I would repeat. 

But either way, he's a guy the organization really can't afford to miss on. Time will tell whether Elias was right or wrong in this draft, so I can't get on Law for his opinion because it's his opinion. 

BTW, I liked Asa Lacy the best at #2, but I obviously don't have all the information that Elias has. 

Roch made mention of something else going on as well but also said he doesn’t know if there is any truth to it, so he doesn’t want to report anything.