The Catching Situation

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Philip said:

How many at bats are sufficient? When you’re basically hitting zero, it’s impossible to not improve, I’m not expecting him to improve meaningfully, and as I said and you agreed, even if he returned to his career norms, that won’t be sufficient. But back to the question. How many at bats is a sufficient number for you to agree that this is what he is? Remember he’s not even at his own career norms, which you yourself have admitted are not sufficient. So in order to be worth keeping despite his defense, he would have to do better than his career, And I don’t see that happening. Remember, true change is not incremental, it is transformative.

I Don’t really care about his offense, as long as his defense is good, that’s why I’m happy to see one of the other guys who has a reputation for better defense.

Well, you really overrate defense.  It’s obviously very important but you act like if a guy is good defensively, it doesn’t matter if he hits or not.  That’s wrong.

Frobby already said to give him 6-8 weeks at least.

And yea, his career wRC+ may be subpar but in the 2 years he played the most, it was well above average.  That carries more weight than inconsistent at bats in small sample sizes.

Sisco obviously has to hit for him to stay in the majors.  But his defense isn’t killing this team the way you and others seem to think it is.  Doesn’t mean it’s good but I don’t see it as some consistent detriment to the team either, as the SSS of stats Frobby showed for this year tells us.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, you really overrate defense.  It’s obviously very important but you act like if a guy is good defensively, it doesn’t matter if he hits or not.  That’s wrong.

Frobby already said to give him 6-8 weeks at least.

And yea, his career wRC+ may be subpar but in the 2 years he played the most, it was well above average.  That carries more weight than inconsistent at bats in small sample sizes.

Sisco obviously has to hit for him to stay in the majors.  But his defense isn’t killing this team the way you and others seem to think it is.  Doesn’t mean it’s good but I don’t see it as some consistent detriment to the team either, as the SSS of stats Frobby showed for this year tells us.

I just don't get why posters want to kill Sisco for his poor defense and ignore that Severino's defense has been just as poor.

[foxfield]

Thought exercise:

 

 

IF this afternoon Sisco were to be cut and AR comes up and goes...say 8 for 20 with 3 HR and 11 RBI...How much per year and how many years should he be extended?

Is making him part owner enough?

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Thought exercise:

 

 

IF this afternoon Sisco were to be cut and AR comes up and goes...say 8 for 20 with 3 HR and 11 RBI...How much per year and how many years should he be extended?

Is making him part owner enough?

Make him part owner than make him cover part of the payroll out of his signing bonus.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Thought exercise:

 

 

IF this afternoon Sisco were to be cut and AR comes up and goes...say 8 for 20 with 3 HR and 11 RBI...How much per year and how many years should he be extended?

Is making him part owner enough?

So, you want to have him work daily with the Angelos family?  Are you trying to drive him away quickly?  

[DrungoHazewood]

19 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Thought exercise:

IF this afternoon Sisco were to be cut and AR comes up and goes...say 8 for 20 with 3 HR and 11 RBI...How much per year and how many years should he be extended?

Is making him part owner enough?

Should he be extended at all?  Given your scenario he's 23 and will be under Orioles control through his age 28 season.  Let's say he gets $550k for each of the next three, then $2M, $5M, $10M for three arb years, for a total of a little less than $20M.  I suppose if he's Johnny Bench that could be more like $30M or so?

What's a HOF catcher typically worth from age 29-on?  Bench was worth 21 WAR, with only playing 52 games at 33, then 119 and 110 mainly at third base at 34-35.  Bill Dickey had four HOFish seasons at those ages.  Gary Carter had three top seasons.  Ivan Rodriguez had one five-win season, a couple of four, a couple three, and some lesser years.  Fisk played forever, almost suspiciously so. Piazza had 3-4 years worth a big contract.  Yogi had three really good seasons, and three more pretty good.  Mauer signed a long extension and was paid $184M for about 22 wins... I guess that was technically worth it?  Simmons and Cochrane had some good years, Munson some bad luck.

So, I don't know... if you assume Rutschman is going to be one of the top 20 or 30 catchers who ever lived maybe extending him through 33 or 34 is not too much of a risk?

[foxfield]

If it is not obvious...I apologize.  My point is that we should probably not throw Sisco away because he hasn't hit in 20 AB.  

 

FWIW.  I think AR is one of the least extendable players in the org.  His age and his position almost guarantee that a large extension would be tough to justify.  IMHO.  As Drungro points out above, he arguably would need to be HOF material to justify it.  By the time he gets there he will be out of the O's price range and I would be fine with that.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, foxfield said:

If it is not obvious...I apologize.  My point is that we should probably not throw Sisco away because he hasn't hit in 20 AB.  

 

FWIW.  I think AR is one of the least extendable players in the org.  His age and his position almost guarantee that a large extension would be tough to justify.  IMHO.  As Drungro points out above, he arguably would need to be HOF material to justify it.  By the time he gets there he will be out of the O's price range and I would be fine with that.

I would sign him now to a 7 year deal with a team option.  8 years is probably the max I would want him here although that could change.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

With the recent chat about signing Rutschman to an extension...

If it was to ever be a reality and not just some fantasy thing on here, do you think the Davis contract situation makes them hesitate? Such as, they sign him long term to a large dollar amount and they run him into the ground in half the time of the contract, with a “walking wounded” Rutschman on the books for the last half?

[Philip]

Just to be clear, I don’t think AR should be brought up yet.

I DO think better catchers are available than the ones we have on the 26-man.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

With the recent chat about signing Rutschman to an extension...

If it was to ever be a reality and not just some fantasy thing on here, do you think the Davis contract situation makes them hesitate? Such as, they sign him long term to a large dollar amount and they run him into the ground in half the time of the contract, with a “walking wounded” Rutschman on the books for the last half?

I have no reason to think that ownership has ever entertained the idea of signing Rutschman to a long term deal.

I don't recall them ever extending a player before they hit arbitration.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Philip said:

How many at bats are sufficient? When you’re basically hitting zero, it’s impossible to not improve, I’m not expecting him to improve meaningfully, and as I said and you agreed, even if he returned to his career norms, that won’t be sufficient. But back to the question. How many at bats is a sufficient number for you to agree that this is what he is? 

The guy could literally have one 3 for 4 day and he’d be hitting .250 instead of .150.  So 20 is just way too few PA to worry about.   Like I pointed out in another thread, Mullins is hitting .158 in his last 19 PA.   Literally every player goes through streaks like that.   

I already said I’d wait until mid to late May before giving any thought to demoting Sisco.   So call that 
55-75 PA.    

Just for some context here, Mullins batted .183 over 74 PA before he got demoted in 2019.
 

[Legend_Of_Joey]

38 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I have no reason to think that ownership has ever entertained the idea of signing Rutschman to a long term deal.

I don't recall them ever extending a player before they hit arbitration.

I realize that, but the posters above wanted their “what if” scenario so I was throwing the question out there.

[Sports Guy]

You never know with a poor ownership group but Davis and Adley are apples and elephants.

[Philip]

43 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The guy could literally have one 3 for 4 day and he’d be hitting .250 instead of .150.  So 20 is just way too few PA to worry about.   Like I pointed out in another thread, Mullins is hitting .158 in his last 19 PA.   Literally every player goes through streaks like that.   

I already said I’d wait until mid to late May before giving any thought to demoting Sisco.   So call that 
55-75 PA.    

Just for some context here, Mullins batted .183 over 74 PA before he got demoted in 2019.
 

Fair enough. I stand by my wish to demote him now, for reasons I’ve shared, and I understand where you’re coming from. It’s fine if we disagree. I doubt Hyde is urgently seeking our thoughts anyway.

On the other hand, he DID move Mountcastle to DH/1B... maybe he IS listening to my voice mails...hmmm...