Keegan Akin 2021

[7Mo]

1 hour ago, SteveA said:

So I could kind of envision a rotation to start the season of:

Means
a half decent free agent acquisition
The 2 best of Lopez/Watkins/Zimmerman/Lowther/Kremer/Akin/Wells
A Harvey-type acquisition or another guy from the list above

Then as the season goes on we might see Baumann & Rodriguez displace two guys, maybe Smith too.

That's what I'm guessing as well. Tyler Wells should be ready by June, hopefully Bradish pitches himself into the mix. But I think it's important to bring in 2 FA starters, one a little higher level and one Harvey type hope to rebuild your value type guy. 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, SteveA said:

I was kind of hoping for one Harvey-like move, and one "real" starting pitcher on the free agent (or trade) market.  A 1 or 2 year deal.

We know darn well that with the difference in the ball, no pitcher that matters is going to come up to Baltimore until they have a good # of innings at AAA between now and their promotion.   100 maybe? 

So I could kind of envision a rotation to start the season of:

Means
a half decent free agent acquisition
The 2 best of Lopez/Watkins/Zimmerman/Lowther/Kremer/Akin/Wells
A Harvey-type acquisition or another guy from the list above

Then as the season goes on we might see Baumann & Rodriguez displace two guys, maybe Smith too.

I have to look at things but I will likely enter this offseason with the same top target as last offseason…Stroman.

But I also doubt the Mets lose him And I wouldn’t go more than 4 guaranteed years for him and my guess is the Os will have to do that to get him to come here.

[SteveA]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I have to look at things but I will likely enter this offseason with the same top target as last offseason…Stroman.

But I also doubt the Mets lose him And I wouldn’t go more than 4 guaranteed years for him and my guess is the Os will have to do that to get him to come here.

Yeah, that's ambitious.   I was thinking someone along the lines of what the Astros did this past offseason, getting Jake Odorizzi for 2/$20.5mm.   That's what the Twins got Pineda for as well, and he is in the second year of that deal.   

I haven't looked at the free agent list but that is the type/level that I was thinking.  

[Il BuonO]

21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I have to look at things but I will likely enter this offseason with the same top target as last offseason…Stroman.

But I also doubt the Mets lose him And I wouldn’t go more than 4 guaranteed years for him and my guess is the Os will have to do that to get him to come here.

I like the idea, but I don’t think it’s likely. More and more I get the sinking feeling that ownership today isn’t all that much different from ownership of the past.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

I like the idea, but I don’t think it’s likely. More and more I get the sinking feeling that ownership today isn’t all that much different from ownership of the past.

 

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, NCRaven said:

Was with you up to this point.  I don't care even a little about losing Yaz.  If he didn't have that name, no one would have known who he is.

That's not the point. The point is Elias was supposed to be bring in the technology that should find diamonds in the rough and not only has he really not found many, he lost one of his own. 

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I find it funny that you are mocking me about a crystal ball yet you are doing the exact same thing by saying he is going to be a reliever.  You yourself has said that he could be a back end starter.  

And his MiL stats were pretty good.  He showed, through all the levels of minor league ball that he could be a Ml starter.  It’s not like he has come out of nowhere with no history of being good in pro ball and all of a sudden, Im saying to give him A chance.  He was a highly drafted college arm with hood pro stats to back it up.  They aren’t off the page good but good enough to warrant a real chance on a garbage team.

 

Do you honestly actually believe this? I have been watching and scouting Akin since he came into the system. I've been saying for years that his best role will be in relief but I wasn't against giving him a shot at starting while the Orioles are awful. Well, I've seen enough and have concluded he should be a reliever. There are lots of pitchers who were good in college as starters who ended up relievers. As for his minor league stats, did you notice his xFIP went up at level until it was at 5.16 in AAA in 2019? His SO/BB ratio  got worse as he moved up the chain as well so I would argue that he did not necessarily prove he was a good starter at every level.

This has nothing to do with blindly looking into a crystal ball or saying he hasn't had enough chances when you can't even tell us what "enough chances" even looks like. It is time to evaluate Akin as a reliever. He was never consistent and needed too many pitches to get through minor league lineups and to no ones surprise, that has not gotten better in the majors.

Now ultimately, I don't think we really disagree that much on Akin other then when he should be converted to relief. 

 

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, SteveA said:

Yeah, that's ambitious.   I was thinking someone along the lines of what the Astros did this past offseason, getting Jake Odorizzi for 2/$20.5mm.   That's what the Twins got Pineda for as well, and he is in the second year of that deal.   

I haven't looked at the free agent list but that is the type/level that I was thinking.  

I would be surprised if they even spent that much but I agree that’s far more realistic than Stroman and something they should easily be able to do.

[NCRaven]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

That's not the point. The point is Elias was supposed to be bring in the technology that should find diamonds in the rough and not only has he really not found many, he lost one of his own. 

Gotcha.  I think that the ability of any coach or team to turn any bad player into a good player is generally overstated.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

25 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Gotcha.  I think that the ability of any coach or team to turn any bad player into a good player is generally overstated.

Even more so with foreign substances for pitchers being banned now. 

[Il BuonO]

Sounded tonight like Brown was saying Akin is in line to take Wells’ spot in the rotation.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

23 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

Sounded tonight like Brown was saying Akin is in line to take Wells’ spot in the rotation.

[Sports Guy]

11 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Do you honestly actually believe this? I have been watching and scouting Akin since he came into the system. I've been saying for years that his best role will be in relief but I wasn't against giving him a shot at starting while the Orioles are awful. Well, I've seen enough and have concluded he should be a reliever. There are lots of pitchers who were good in college as starters who ended up relievers. As for his minor league stats, did you notice his xFIP went up at level until it was at 5.16 in AAA in 2019? His SO/BB ratio  got worse as he moved up the chain as well so I would argue that he did not necessarily prove he was a good starter at every level.

This has nothing to do with blindly looking into a crystal ball or saying he hasn't had enough chances when you can't even tell us what "enough chances" even looks like. It is time to evaluate Akin as a reliever. He was never consistent and needed too many pitches to get through minor league lineups and to no ones surprise, that has not gotten better in the majors.

Now ultimately, I don't think we really disagree that much on Akin other then when he should be converted to relief. 

 

Few things here.

First of all, if you think im blindly looking into a crystal ball for my thoughts and opinions, you either aren’t paying attention or have some kind of an agenda.  There is nothing blind about anything I say.  I back it up with strong opinions and facts.  You may disagree and that’s fine but there is nothing blind about it.

Secondly, just because you scouted Akin doesn’t mean you aren’t using a “crystal ball”.  You could be wrong or Akin could fix a mechanical issue or he could add a new pitch or whatever.  Maybe he dedicates himself physically and mentally more than he has and that gets him better.  I’m guessing that your crystal ball didn’t have Means this good at the ML level, right?  Again, YOU have said he could be a back end starter.  You may feel that he ends up in the pen but YOU left open the possibility that he could start.  You saying he WILL BE a reliever is “using a crystal ball”.  I’m not saying it’s not an educated opinion but it is “telling the future without knowing for sure”.  That is what you mean by using a crystal ball, correct? 
 

 For me, because that possibility still exists, he should be getting starts now.  This is the perfect season to do it.  There is literally not one good reason not to start him right now.  The idea of letting him pitch in relief now for the future isn’t a good reason imo.  The opportunities haven’t been there yet, at least not to 100% determine he is a reliever.  He can always switch to that role, as he will have had some experience doing it and it’s not like it’s a difficult transition.  There have been guys in the past, like Mike Wright, who showed over an extended period of time that he wasn’t a starter and the team kept trying.  He should have been converted far sooner.  I just don’t feel Akin is at that point yet.  Maybe he will be by the end of this season and if so, that’s fine.  Like you said, we ultimately agree on where we think Akin will end up but I just feel he should be given more of a chance, in a year where we are terrible and have nothing to lose by trying him there.
 

As for his AAA season in 2019, let’s not forget that the juiced ball down there was an issue.  He was actually 6th in ERA amongst qualified pitchers in the league that year and despite that juiced ball, he only gave up 10 Homers in 112 IP, had a K rate of 10.5 and allowed less than a hit per IP.  The walk rate was high and that is his biggest issue.  That walk rate, in the very small sample size at this level, has come down.  His str% is above league average at this level.  If those numbers are getting better, that gives me some hope that he can start up here.

[Sports Guy]

I had mentioned it before but it seemed to me that Akin has that one bad inning that derails his outings as a whole..

 

Doing some research, in the 15 games Akin has appeared in this year, he let up 2 or more runs in 9 of those games..  In those games, covering 13 innings, he has let up 37 runs.  4 of those games, he had multiple innings of 2 or more runs.  In 4 of those games, he had several runs charged to him that were inherited runners and he also had some bad luck with poor defense, like the Cleveland game where he gave up 8 runs but had the DJ start miscues and other bad luck occur.

That is 37 of the 44 runs he has allowed this year.  His ERA is just over 2 in the other 38 IP this year.

 

I bring this up for multiple reasons.

1) He has had bad luck.  The runs he has allowed certainly could be better with better defense and more help from the pen saving him.  His BABIP is also 321, which is unlucky. Now, he also put on those runners, so its his fault.  I am just saying that bad luck has contributed to some of these issues.

2) More importantly than #1 is why these innings are a regular occurrence? These bad innings normally occur as he starts going through the lineup multiple times.  He is getting hit hard early.  That tells you that he likely should be a reliever because of the struggles once he gets through a lineup one time.  My question is, does it go deeper than that?  Is this a physcological issue with him?  I am not sure if there has been any research done that talks about "the big inning" but I wonder if there is something mentally with him that can be fixed.  Do things start to go downhill and he presses?  Is it fixable?  Or is it simply the command and stuff doesn't play when hitters see you for the second and third time in the game.

 

I am more on the side that he just isn't good enough to face lineups multiple times but I do wonder if there is more to it than that and if it is fixable.

[Tony-OH]

11 hours ago, NCRaven said:

Gotcha.  I think that the ability of any coach or team to turn any bad player into a good player is generally overstated.

Again, not the point. The idea is that the technology will see the EV, barrel percentage, spin rates, pitch movement, etc that could suggest the player could improve if perhaps used a different way or some tweaks were made. Elias and Syd were supposed to have this system for scouting and development and one would think they would scour the other systems and have these guys identified if become available. 

I know the spring that Yaz was let go Elias and company had these devices set up. Now maybe they didn't put Yaz through them because he was widely looked upon as an org guy, but whatever system they had in place between technology and coaching decided that Dwight Smith Jr. was better than Yaz. 

That system needs to be tweaked because they either have/had poor evaluators, the system evaluation was wrong, or the Giants have secret sauce that enabled Yaz to become who he is now.