2021 Orioles Prospect Power Rankings (Top 50)

[LookinUp]

Fair enough. I'm just connecting dots and speculating.

The dots are this. They got rid of several scouts. They almost completely skipped out on high school players, for whom data is less available, particularly in a Covid +1 year.

They seem so reliant on data that I think it's over reliant. Where data doesn't exist, it's a blind spot because it's not supplemented by qualitative information. 

But that's just my speculation. I'm an all of the above type of guy and it seems like the O's are not in that category. 

[LookinUp]

As an aside, I have a bit of a data analysis (not sports) background. It's very important to know what the data does and does not tell you. People regularly jump to poor conclusions based on what they assume data to be saying, which often with more context the data could lead you to an opposite conclusion.

As it relates to baseball, I think data analysis is as useful in baseball as any other sport. Likely much more so, IMO. So I'm on board with the O's approach and am generally supportive even in an eyebrow raising draft like this as it relates to pitching. With that said, the data can tell you who to bring in and it can help you develop them, but I'm not so sure that some of the historical data accounts for modern player development. By that I mean that 25% of a particular profile might end up good (think Cowser), but the point of player development is to improve that rate. So, with respect to pitching, I fear that data might be over-weighting risk by using historical player develoment benchmarks instead of projections based on modern player development.

In other words, I think the O's might be able to develop more arms with less injury than historical data might show. I'm sure this isn't ground breaking to them, but I really do wonder if they have the right plan for pitching. That's all.

[Tony-OH]

We're already having the discussion elsewhere on the board, but I've moved Grayson Rodriguez into the #1 spot.

Big movers elsewhere as well with Kyle Stowers getting a big jump into the top ten and some other movers if you look around.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

We're already having the discussion elsewhere on the board, but I've moved Grayson Rodriguez into the #1 spot.

Big movers elsewhere as well with Kyle Stowers getting a big jump into the top ten and some other movers if you look around.

Nice moves up from Neustrom and I. Feliz.   

[Tony-OH]

Just now, Frobby said:

Nice moves up from Neustrom and I. Feliz.   

Feliz was touching mid 90s a few starts back and the results speak for themselves. I think there is a some major reliever risk with him but he deserves to be watched. 

Neustrom has really been impressive with his plate discipline and occasional pop. He's improved a lot from 2019 and is a nice story!

[NCRaven]

47 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Feliz was touching mid 90s a few starts back and the results speak for themselves. I think there is a some major reliever risk with him but he deserves to be watched. 

Neustrom has really been impressive with his plate discipline and occasional pop. He's improved a lot from 2019 and is a nice story!

When will you add the draft picks?  I'd think the top 3 picks would certainly figure prominently into this list.  Wish Kjerstad was healthy too-but doesn't everyone, specially Kjerstad.

[Tony-OH]

7 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

When will you add the draft picks?  I'd think the top 3 picks would certainly figure prominently into this list.  Wish Kjerstad was healthy too-but doesn't everyone, specially Kjerstad.

The rule for the power rankings is that a player must play in a game before he can be added.

[Just Regular]

Next week would enjoy if somewhere at like 8.5, 14.5, 22.5 etc, you could throw in a line of "Estimated Trey Mancini trade return if one player like Kevin Smith", and then if it happens we could see how everyone did.

[RZNJ]

On 7/19/2021 at 1:37 PM, Tony-OH said:

Feliz was touching mid 90s a few starts back and the results speak for themselves. I think there is a some major reliever risk with him but he deserves to be watched. 

Neustrom has really been impressive with his plate discipline and occasional pop. He's improved a lot from 2019 and is a nice story!

Neustrom at #25.   It's nice to see him move up.   I still see Diaz, Haskins, and Stowers ahead of him.   Personally, I am very excited from what I am seeing from Neustrom, statistically speaking.   In his first 3 games at Norfolk, he hasn't missed a beat, with 3 hits, including a double and homer in 8 AB's, with 2 walks and 0 strikeouts.   He had a .900+ OPS in June and was over 1.000 with Bowie in July before his promotion with improving plate discipline numbers along the way.   I think he is quickly becoming the surest bet of all of these outfielders to make a positive contribution at the ML level.  I am excited by Stowers and can see him being ranked ahead of Neustrom.   But Haskins and Diaz?   Not so much.    Neustrom is proving that he can flat out hit but he's also, next to Adley, has probably got the best combination of patience/contact the the minor league level which, to me, translates best at the ML level.

[waynebug]

Need to watch Raul Rangel pitcher for the FCL Black in Florida.

Strikeout and groundout pitcher. 3.5 ground outs per fly out.  18 strikeouts/15 innings/13 hits/ 5 walks/3 earned runs.

Baseball America has been "on" him since he signed for a modest $150,00 bonus in 2019.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, waynebug said:

Need to watch Raul Rangel pitcher for the FCL Black in Florida.

Strikeout and groundout pitcher. 3.5 ground outs per fly out.  18 strikeouts/15 innings/13 hits/ 5 walks/3 earned runs.

Baseball America has been "on" him since he signed for a modest $150,00 bonus in 2019.

Yeah, he looks like one of the cream of the crop so far. 

[wildcard]

Tony, Stowers has been at Bowie for a month.  

[Tony-OH]

6 hours ago, wildcard said:

Tony, Stowers has been at Bowie for a month.  

I know, what's your point?

[Tony-OH]

Updated as of July 26th. Stowers continues his ascent and a new FCL pitcher is on the board in Raul Rangel. Rangel, 18, is throwing 91-94, with a curve and developing change and has been one of the best pitchers down there along with Jean Pinto. Rangel though has a long lanky body that suggests he could fill out and throw harder.

[RZNJ]

Neustrom with a 3-run walkoff in the first game of a DH.  After 8 games, 3 hrs, 7 rib, 4 walks, 5 k, 1.068 OPS.  If I'm Austin Hays, I'm watching Neustrom and Stowers and thinking I better step up my game.