24.7% of the way through the season

[TommyPickles]

2 minutes ago, SteveA said:

I mean, we're on pace for 69 wins despite having played an inordinately difficult portion of or schedule so far.

By the time Tampa leaves town in about 51 hours, we will have played just 5 of 43 games vs teams with losing records (12%)

In the next 62 games between Friday and August 1, we will play 29 teams that currently have losing records (47%).

Then it gets tougher again starting August 2, as only 16 of our last 57 games are against teams with losing records (28%), but that's still not as tough as the schedule we have faced so far.

So you agree? They'll probably win a couple more games than the 69 they're on pace to win.

[SteveA]

2 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

So you agree? They'll probably win a couple more games than the 69 they're on pace to win.

Yes.   I voted 71-75 in the preseason poll.   And my personal "goal" for the season was to get into the 70s this year, after being in the 40s in 2018, 50s in 2019, and pro-rating into the 60s in 2020.    When Elias took over that was kind of the progression I imagined, continuing to reaching the 80s and the brink of contention in 2022 and being a truly legitimate contender in 2023.

And so far I have seen nothing that indicates to me we have fallen behind that progression.   Which is why I pretty much ignore all the sky-is-falling, when-will-we-ever-win, is-Elias-failing type of posts.    I envisioned this level of progress from the very start and haven't seen anything to indicate to me that we are behind the curve.   Yet.   I'm still very scared that cheap ownership will refuse to spend on payroll when it becomes necessary to get us over the top, but that is a different discussion.

[Just Regular]

In the 1st Quarter I believe we only put Hays, Mullins, Santander, Mountcastle and Mancini in the lineup together during the 3-0 start in Boston.   Hopefully we're 5/9ths respectable once Santander back this weekend.

I could see Stewart v. McKenna going either way then.

Unless Nevin gets a Renato-ish 3B try, I think 7/9ths respectable hitting-wise is the deepest the lineup will get this season, though I'd enjoy Vavra and Jahmai together for now if one of them could 3B any.

I hope 1st Quarter Orioles will also prove to be Worst Quarter Orioles talent-wise.