What do you think of Tyler Wells?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

That was a question addressed to the audience, not necessarily YOU.

This is one of the many things in sports where it has “always been done this way”, therefore people accept it, don’t question it and act like it’s how you have to do it.

If different rules were in place, people would think differently.

But it hasn't always been done this way.

In the grand scheme of things it is a fairly recent turn of events.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

But it hasn't always been done this way.

In the grand scheme of things it is a fairly recent turn of events.

Recent is all that matters in the minds of people.

The money involved is why it’s this way.  That wasn’t always the case.  
 

 

[LTO's]

Wells is a starter being used as a reliever right now. Before this outing he had an ERA near 6. Even after this outing he's still a below replacement level player and there's still some brutal stretches left in this season. I'm not sure how his below average production out of the bullpen is in anyway an indication that Grayrod would hold his own as a starter right now at the big league level. Also Wells has almost 100 more IP. 

[wildcard]

I guess its a matter of how much failure should a team expose there cornerstone players to?    Adley, Grayson and DL are all cornerstone players.   If you jump Grayson from A+ ball to the majors, he might do well or he may struggle while learning in the majors.  There is no problem if he does well.  But struggles can be a problem if they go on too long.   

By making cornerstone players achieve at AA and AAA before coming to the majors, does that cut down on the chance that they will struggle in the majors?   Elias seems to think so.

[Ruzious]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

In games that count you're still probably going to close a close game with your best late inning pitcher. You're also going to want to take full advantage of matchups as much as you can.

I agree there is a role for these guys beyond low leverage middle relief. Probably makes most sense as either "opener" when you don't have a great starting rotation, or backing up an opener. 

Yup.  Personally, I like the idea of planning on 2 guys going 4 each, an then the closer finishing.  

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I guess its a matter of how much failure should a team expose there cornerstone players to?    Adley, Grayson and DL are all cornerstone players.   If you jump Grayson from A+ ball to the majors, he might do well or he may struggle while learning in the majors.  There is no problem if he does well.  But struggles can be a problem if they go on to long.   

By making cornerstone players achieve at AA and AAA before coming to the majors, does that cut down on the chance that they will struggle in the majors?   Elias seems to think so.

What does this mean?  What problem?  You have any examples?

Elias seems, to me, to think that his cornerstone players should have their service time games to maximize the value to the big league team.

 

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

What does this mean?  What problem?  You have any examples?

Elias seems, to me, to think that his cornerstone players should have their service time games to maximize the value to the big league team.

 

I think service time is a different discussion from optimum player development.

Opimum player development is trying to give the player enough time at levels in the minors to prove that they have achieved certain goals.

Service time management is:

1) Trying to maximize the years of service to the team 

2) Trying to get your better players to the team at the same time to have them play together for a long as possible.

Under #2,   The O's may slow roll a player the is early in the development cycle like Mountcasle,  Then Grayson, DL  and Adley arrive.   After that a player like Henderson may be promoted aggressively to join the others in the majors.

[Ruzious]

47 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Why isn’t it the ideal way to develop him?

You notice I said him And not Hall because Hall is still wild at times.

Grayson, by all accounts, has great command, several good pitches, is mature, etc...why would it hurt his development to bring him to the majors today?  

I agree with this.  Don't use a 1 size fits all method - with very slow progression for players who don't need to be coddled.  Make decisions based on whether or not they think the player is ready, and make sure each player is being challenged enough to make the improvements they need.    

[Sports Guy]

Just now, wildcard said:

I think service time is a different discussion from optimum player development.

Opimum player development is trying to give the player enough time at levels in the minors to prove that they have achieved certain goals.

Service time management is:

1) Trying to maximize the years of service to the team 

2) Trying to get your better players to the team at the same time to have them play together for a long as possible.

Under #2,   The O's may slow roll a player the is early in the development cycle like Mountcasle,  Then Grayson, DL  and Adley arrive.   After that a player like Henderson may be promoted aggressively to join the others in the majors.

Development is, without question, impacted by service time.  If you say, a HS player is a FA 9 years after entering the organization and a college player is a FA 7 years after entering it, you better believe how they develop will change.

These “rules” on how they develop will change dramatically.  All of a sudden, getting guys through the system quicker will be what is done.  You better believe that.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, wildcard said:

I think service time is a different discussion from optimum player development.

Opimum player development is trying to give the player enough time at levels in the minors to prove that they have achieved certain goals.

Service time management is:

1) Trying to maximize the years of service to the team 

2) Trying to get your better players to the team at the same time to have them play together for a long as possible.

Under #2,   The O's may slow roll a player the is early in the development cycle like Mountcasle,  Then Grayson, DL  and Adley arrive.   After that a player like Henderson may be promoted aggressively to join the others in the majors.

I think service time is the actual driving force in a lot of these discussions so you can't separate the two.  You are trying to optimize development so you can extract as much value out of the player during the period in which he is under team control.  You don't want to waste a season of team control by having a player learn in the majors, even if it would be better long term for the player's development.

[Frobby]

24 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But if a player who is generally seen as less talented can be challenged in such a fashion and do well why not use that approach with Rodriguez and accelerate his advancement? 

The answer is simple, service time manipulation.

Do you think the team is better with Rodriguez on it?  Do you think it would help or hinder Rodrizuez's career?

It isn't as if we are talking about something unprecedented.  He's 21.  Tons of guys have been pitching in the majors by 21.

 

First of all, I think every case is different, so I don’t like to speak as though there is a one size fits all solution.   We all know that truly top talent can move very quickly at times.    Five guys who come to mind immediately are Kershaw, Bumgarner, F. Hernandez, J. Fernandez and Porcello.   All of them were in the majors as starting pitchers at age 20.   Fernandez and Porcello went straight from A-Ball to the majors.    In Porcello’s case, he might have been better off with a little more minor league polish, but who knows?   Nobody would argue that about the other four.

That said, I don’t think the Tyler Wells case tells us anything about Rodriguez    Wells has been a starting pitcher in the minors and he’s being used as a reliever on pace to throw 70 innings, mostly in low to medium leverage situations.     He’s holding his own in that role.   Would I want the O’s using Rodriguez in that role?    No, I’d much rather have him progressing through the minors as a starting pitcher.   To me that’s better training for his ultimate role than pitching in the Wells tole would be.    

So should we be taking the Fernandez/Porcello leap and just installing Rodriguez into the Orioles’ starting rotation?   
Personally, and putting aside service time issues for just a moment, I still don’t think so.  I’d still rather get him some experience against AA hitters before deciding on that kind of jump.   But I wouldn’t necessarily be against doing it if Rodriguez dominates AA for a couple of months.    

Service time does play a role but I don’t think it is or should be the only factor.  If I thought we could install Rodriguez in our rotation today and he’d immediately be an averagish major league starter and could keep learning on the fly, it would be OK with me.    But if I thought he’d be either throwing to a 5+ ERA or or it would hinder his development of certain pitches he’s working on, then I wouldn’t want to do it.  

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

First of all, I think every case is different, so I don’t like to speak as though there is a one size fits all solution.   We all know that truly top talent can move very quickly at times.    Five guys who come to mind immediately are Kershaw, Bumgarner, F. Hernandez, J. Fernandez and Porcello.   All of them were in the majors as starting pitchers at age 20.   Fernandez and Porcello went straight from A-Ball to the majors.    In Porcello’s case, he might have been better off with a little more minor league polish, but who knows?   Nobody would argue that about the other four.

That said, I don’t think the Tyler Wells case tells us anything about Rodriguez    Wells has been a starting pitcher in the minors and he’s being used as a reliever on pace to throw 70 innings, mostly in low to medium leverage situations.     He’s holding his own in that role.   Would I want the O’s using Rodriguez in that role?    No, I’d much rather have him progressing through the minors as a starting pitcher.   To me that’s better training for his ultimate role than pitching in the Wells tole would be.    

So should we be taking the Fernandez/Porcello leap and just installing Rodriguez into the Orioles’ starting rotation?   
Personally, and putting aside service time issues for just a moment, I still don’t think so.  I’d still rather get him some experience against AA hitters before deciding on that kind of jump.   But I wouldn’t necessarily be against doing it if Rodriguez dominates AA for a couple of months.    

Service time does play a role but I don’t think it is or should be the only factor.  If I thought we could install Rodriguez in our rotation today and he’d immediately be an averagish major league starter and could keep learning on the fly, it would be OK with me.    But if I thought he’d be either throwing to a 5+ ERA or or it would hinder his development of certain pitches he’s working on, then I wouldn’t want to do it.  

Assuming Holt comes back, if he is the genius some think he is, wouldn’t Grayson be better off up here working with him on stuff?

[wildcard]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think service time is the actual driving force in a lot of these discussions so you can't separate the two.  You are trying to optimize development so you can extract as much value out of the player during the period in which he is under team control.  You don't want to waste a season of team control by having a player learn in the majors, even if it would be better long term for the player's development.

I agree with this but I would say its a driving force not the driving force.

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Assuming Holt comes back, if he is the genius some think he is, wouldn’t Grayson be better off up here working with him on stuff?

Holt is back.   And Holt may feel that the level of competition that Grayson faces in more important right now then working with him everyday.  I don't know.  You will have to ask him.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I agree with this but I would say its a driving force not the driving force.

It’s absolutely the singular driving force or, the overwhelming most important one.

Again, if they change the service time rules and they say a player becomes a FA at a certain age, the development will be different and guys will be in the majors much sooner.