Cedric Mullins as a CF

[Ruzious]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I can assume it because these are the greatest athletes in the world at their sport.

Tough catch?  Yes, sure.  But tough doesn’t mean he gets a pass for missing it when he was right there or that only a few guys could make it.  That’s just wrong.

And btw, even if only a few guys could make it, HE was one who should because he was there and in plenty of time.  Again, it didn’t just glance off the end of the glove.  It hit the middle of the glove.  He was there in plenty of time And should have caught it.  I guarantee you he says he should have caught it.

No question - I agree that's likely his reaction.  But saying he was there in plenty of time is just wrong.  

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Ruzious said:

C'mon, if anyone's earned the right to not be called biased, it's Frobby.  Nobody said it was an impossible catch,; we just disagree on the level of difficulty.  

He is biased.  We all are.  We see our guys play everyday.  Most don’t watch everyone else.  Most people can’t tell you how good of a defensive CFer the Brewers have.

So yes, when you make comments like very few can get there, that’s pumping up Mullins and bringing down others..that’s a bias and it’s also just not being informed.  Again, nothing wrong with that because who has time to watch everyone else play.

But when people make those arguments, they are doing so with info they don’t have.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Ruzious said:

No question - I agree that's likely his reaction.  But saying he was there in plenty of time is just wrong.  

Except it’s not...he was clearly there in plenty of time to make that catch.

Plenty of time is all relative to the play.  Being in position in plenty of time to catch a lazy fly ball isn’t the same as being there in plenty of time to make the catch on a harder hit ball like the one last night.

If Mullins had to dive or if he just couldnt quite reach it, that would be one thing. But neither of those things occurred. 

He got himself into position to make the catch and he was clearly there on time to catch it...he missed it and he should have caught it.

[Ruzious]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He is biased.  We all are.  We see our guys play everyday.  Most don’t watch everyone else.  Most people can’t tell you how good of a defensive CFer the Brewers have.

So yes, when you make comments like very few can get there, that’s pumping up Mullins and bringing down others..that’s a bias and it’s also just not being informed.  Again, nothing wrong with that because who has time to watch everyone else play.

But when people make those arguments, they are doing so with info they don’t have.

True, but watching baseball for decades, you get a general feel for what's typical, poor, or exceptional throughout the league.  It's certainly not going to be exactly right, but it'll do for conversations like this, imo.  

[Ruzious]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Except it’s not...he was clearly there in plenty of time to make that catch.

Plenty of time is all relative to the play.  Being in position in plenty of time to catch a lazy fly ball isn’t the same as being there in plenty of time to make the catch on a harder hit ball like the one last night.

If Mullins had to dive or if he just couldnt quite reach it, that would be one thing. But neither of those things occurred. 

He got himself into position to make the catch and he was clearly there on time to catch it...he missed it and he should have caught it.

I think you're missing the boat on all the factors making that a very difficult catch, but we'll agree to disagree.  At least I will.  

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Ruzious said:

I think you're missing the boat on all the factors making that a very difficult catch, but we'll agree to disagree.  At least I will.  

I have never said it wasn’t a tough catch.  I acknowledged that.  But tough catch doesn’t mean it’s one he shouldn’t have made.  
 

Put it another way..the catch he made 2 nights ago was tougher and he made that one.

[Ruzious]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I have never said it wasn’t a tough catch.  I acknowledged that.  But tough catch doesn’t mean it’s one he shouldn’t have made.  
 

Put it another way..the catch he made 2 nights ago was tougher and he made that one.

Yup, no disagreements there.  

[Tony-OH]

On 6/2/2021 at 10:36 AM, Sports Guy said:

Haskin is your hopeful long term option.  Obviously, that's a wait and see since its so early in his career.

OTOH, if he hits and plays well, he will move fast.

The Orioles are trying Vavra in CF and I'm betting at some point Servideo moves out there. There's Johnny Rizer at Bowie who has done nothing but hit since being drafted and is getting interesting though I'm not sure he has the pure speed for CF.

Haskins has look ok out there in Delmarva, but i haven't seen enough of him to make an educated opinion on his defense yet.

For the first time in awhile, we have some interesting guys playing CF and SS in the organization thanks to Elias's drafting and trading. 

Oh, and some think Jamai Jones could be tried there as well.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The Orioles are trying Vavra is CF and I'm betting at some point Servideo moves out there. There's Johnny Rizer at Bowie who has done nothing but hit since being drafted and is getting interesting though I'm not sure he has the pure speed for CF.

Haskins has look ok out there in Delmarva, but i haven't seen enough of him to make an educated opinion on his defense yet.

For the first time in awhile, we have some interesting guys playing CF and SS in the organization thanks to Elias's drafting and trading. 

Oh, and some think Jamai Jones could be tried there as well.

IIRC, Haskin was rated as having plus defense coming out of college, right?

[Tony-OH]

27 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

IIRC, Haskin was rated as having plus defense coming out of college, right?

Yes, the scouting reports have him as a solid centerfielder defensively.

[Frobby]

I’ve now seen last night’s play on replay.   I don’t agree with SG that Mullins “had plenty of time” to catch the ball, as he was basically running full out.   I do agree he should have caught it (and never said otherwise).    

As to how many other CF would have reached it, like I said, I wish I had Statcast data on that play so we could just be objective about it.   One thing I will say is that Statcast suggests Mullins is not quite as fast as he used to be: average 28.4 ft/sec this year vs. 29.4 in 2018.  28.4 is 87th percentile overall, but only about average for a CF, whereas 29.4 is top 15% for a CF.   His jump is well above average at +1.7.   But none of that tells you anything about a specific play.   
 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’ve now seen last night’s play on replay.   I don’t agree with SG that Mullins “had plenty of time” to catch the ball, as he was basically running full out.   I do agree he should have caught it (and never said otherwise).    

As to how many other CF would have reached it, like I said, I wish I had Statcast data on that play so we could just be objective about it.   One thing I will say is that Statcast suggests Mullins is not quite as fast as he used to be: average 28.4 ft/sec this year vs. 29.4 in 2018.  28.4 is 87th percentile overall, but only about average for a CF, whereas 29.4 is top 15% for a CF.   His jump is well above average at +1.7.   But none of that tells you anything about a specific play.   
 

So you saying at 26 Mullins has lost a step?

[HowAboutThat]

Hmmm I see it as how far from the body was the ball?

His arm was fully extended, he was running full speed and his body was as fully extended as it is possible to be without diving or falling over, and his glove was turned away from his face so he couldn’t follow the ball into the glove.

I understand that if the ball is on the glove, it should be in the glove, but I don’t fault him at all for not making that catch.

 

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So you saying at 26 Mullins has lost a step?

Sure.   That’s true of most players.   
“an athlete's physical decline begins before most of us notice it, and even the 23-year-old body can do things today that it might not be able to do tomorrow. Fastball speed starts going down in a player's early 20s, and spin rate drops with it. Exit velocity begins to decline at 23 or 24. An average runner slows a little more than 1 inch per second every year, beginning pretty much immediately upon his debut. It takes a little over four seconds for most runners to reach first base, which means with each birthday, it's as if the bases were pulled 4 inches farther apart.”

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23916211/major-league-baseball-aging-cycle-how-mike-trout-becomes-albert-pujols

 

[Sports Guy]

25 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Sure.   That’s true of most players.   
“an athlete's physical decline begins before most of us notice it, and even the 23-year-old body can do things today that it might not be able to do tomorrow. Fastball speed starts going down in a player's early 20s, and spin rate drops with it. Exit velocity begins to decline at 23 or 24. An average runner slows a little more than 1 inch per second every year, beginning pretty much immediately upon his debut. It takes a little over four seconds for most runners to reach first base, which means with each birthday, it's as if the bases were pulled 4 inches farther apart.”

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23916211/major-league-baseball-aging-cycle-how-mike-trout-becomes-albert-pujols

 

Players don’t historically top out at 27 for no reason.