Passan: Mullins, Mancini central to Orioles plans - will need overpay to pry

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I was really hoping in a year like this Mountcastle would have had a long leash in the OF. He looked so poor early on and Mullins played so well it looks like they aren’t going to push him out there. It’s not that I thought he would make it, just wanted to see him get a chance. So it looks like he is 1st basemen of future.  
 

Short term question is Santander and Diaz and how do they fit in 22/23. A good manager can find at bats for 6 guys in 5 spots. Plus you always have injuries. Stewart doesn’t look to be a long term piece. He is ok when he is cheap like now.  

Normally I think keeping a rather expensive DH on a bad team makes little sense. Trey is a bit of a different case. Plus it’s not like he is a DH only like a Cruz at this point. If you try to sign him you do it on your terms. I think for next couple of years there is plenty of room for at bats. Hopefully Kjerstad will get healthy and complicate things. If Trey plays well they you can always move him or someone else. The key is signing someone who keeps producing.  

The key to using Santander and Diaz is staggering their injuries properly so that only one is on the IL at a time.  It's the new platoon.

[eddie83]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

The key to using Santander and Diaz is staggering their injuries properly so that only one is on the IL at a time.  It's the new platoon.

True. Odds are good one will be hurt. Hays fits as well. 
 

Adley can also fill in at 1B and DH so Ryan can head back out to LF for an adventure. 

[foxfield]

15 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s why I think you basically look at all of them together and you basically end up with an average defender.

Teams certainly aren’t going to look at him and say, nope, his defense blows at first, we can’t go after him.

Yep.  Agreed, but still...

A lot of nitpicking as to which side of the line Mancini is on.  He is not a good first baseman, but he is a pretty good hitter and that will have value.  How much?  Well that depends upon need.  

Whether you say average or passable or below average...you're about right.  This isn't fair or foul where the difference could be huge.  I really am torn personally, but I think that moving him for the best package of  ready or near ready pieces makes the most sense.

This is really the first real test.  Does Elias want Trey?  Is there a number that we would commit to 5 yrs?  For example would Elias do 5/40?  Would that mean moving Mountcastle or one of the Outfielders?  Does the medical situation of Kjerstad temper Elias?  Would he keep both or for medical reasons will he not?

What he does will begin to show how is looks at the long term puzzle and how quickly he expects to compete.  Tick tock.

 

[Sports Guy]

I would hope they wouldn’t commit to Him for 5 Years and I don’t see why Trey would sign a 5/40 deal.  That seems light to me.

[Malike]

If we truly believe Mullins is this guy, I would probably hold on to him unless I was really freaking blown away. He's not a FA until 2026, right? He's young enough to be a part of a winning team if they do it right.

[Just Regular]

Fangraphs Goldstein's NL book end.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/state-of-the-org-national-league/

Giants are only team aside from super-obvious Brewers mentioned for 1B.

I did note his characterization of Brewers as "aggressively" buying, which I guess squares with their 4-5 best pitchers doing great.   Make your runs the summers they are all healthy.

Cron and Aguilar there to be sifted with Mancini so far.   One fanciful thing I've seen with the Braves scuffling nearly Twins bad and Freddie Freeman in a walk year is the notion he could splash the pool if the team has a few more bad weeks.

[Ruzious]

5 hours ago, Malike said:

If we truly believe Mullins is this guy, I would probably hold on to him unless I was really freaking blown away. He's not a FA until 2026, right? He's young enough to be a part of a winning team if they do it right.

Agreed.  While everyone is tradable and there's a price for everyone, it would be silly to actively shop him.    

[Gurgi]

3 hours ago, Ruzious said:

Agreed.  While everyone is tradable and there's a price for everyone, it would be silly to actively shop him.    

I think we could get a LOT more for him next year if he is still doing the same stats as he is now.  It would give teams confidence Mullins is for real.  So I say keep him.

[Philip]

Reading in the Dallas news this morning a out Joey Gallo: gold glove, fast, walks, lots of power, not much average. And he’s for sale. Mullins has less power but overall is better, but two similar guys on rebuilding teams might bring the price down.

[Ruzious]

20 minutes ago, Philip said:

Reading in the Dallas news this morning a out Joey Gallo: gold glove, fast, walks, lots of power, not much average. And he’s for sale. Mullins has less power but overall is better, but two similar guys on rebuilding teams might bring the price down.

I wouldn't call them similar.  Gallo is a monster RFer with tremendous HR power - though a bizarrely low doubles hitter and leads the league in walks.  Mullins is a small speedy CFer who does it all this season.   

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

I wouldn't call them similar.  Gallo is a monster RFer with tremendous HR power - though a bizarrely low doubles hitter and leads the league in walks.  Mullins is a small speedy CFer who does it all this season.   

Making a good bit more money as well.

[sportsfan8703]

The question is when is Elias going to flip the switch from tanking. So far in his tenure we’ve picked 1st, 2nd, 5th and likely 1-2 next year. Do we really need to tank again in 2022 and hold the big prospects down?  
 

We’d have to really be blown away to trade Mullins or Means. Like one writer said “A team would have to make that trade knowing that they are going to lose the trade but hope to win by getting a piece while they’re presently winning.”  
 

If Elias has AR, Grod, Hall up on OD next year then we shouldn’t just give Mancini away, but if the plan is tank again next year, well then we have to trade him. I’d hope we’d be able to drum up an additional market with him as a LF option sometimes, rather than only a 1B/ DH. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

7 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The question is when is Elias going to flip the switch from tanking. So far in his tenure we’ve picked 1st, 2nd, 5th and likely 1-2 next year. Do we really need to tank again in 2022 and hold the big prospects down?  
 

We’d have to really be blown away to trade Mullins or Means. Like one writer said “A team would have to make that trade knowing that they are going to lose the trade but hope to win by getting a piece while they’re presently winning.”  
 

If Elias has AR, Grod, Hall up on OD next year then we shouldn’t just give Mancini away, but if the plan is tank again next year, well then we have to trade him. I’d hope we’d be able to drum up an additional market with him as a LF option sometimes, rather than only a 1B/ DH. 

I don't see any realistic scenario where Elias can sell holding down Adley Rutschman in Norfolk for the majority of the 2022 season, along with any other top prospects that become ready for MLB. 

Next year might be a weird year regardless because of the potential of a work stoppage with collective bargaining agreement expiring on December 1st. But assuming the season starts by May, it's going to be time for AR and others to get promoted to MLB.

Even if the season starts in July, it's going to be a hard sell claiming AR needs to spend a shortened 2022 season in AAA. Plus with a new collective bargaining agreement the service time games that are played with prospects today might be gone. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I don't see any realistic scenario where Elias can sell holding down Adley Rutschman in Norfolk for the majority of the 2022 season, along with any other top prospects that become ready for MLB. 

Next year might be a weird year regardless because of the potential of a work stoppage with collective bargaining agreement expiring on December 1st. But assuming the season starts by May, it's going to be time for AR and others to get promoted to MLB.

Even if the season starts in July, it's going to be a hard sell claiming AR needs to spend a shortened 2022 season in AAA. Plus with a new collective bargaining agreement the service time games that are played with prospects today might be gone. 

Does he need to sell it?

Players don't win these types of grievances.  At least they haven't yet.

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I don't see any realistic scenario where Elias can sell holding down Adley Rutschman in Norfolk for the majority of the 2022 season, along with any other top prospects that become ready for MLB. 

Next year might be a weird year regardless because of the potential of a work stoppage with collective bargaining agreement expiring on December 1st. But assuming the season starts by May, it's going to be time for AR and others to get promoted to MLB.

Even if the season starts in July, it's going to be a hard sell claiming AR needs to spend a shortened 2022 season in AAA. Plus with a new collective bargaining agreement the service time games that are played with prospects today might be gone. 

Rutschman might spend the rest of 2021 in the minors so  he does have to be on the major league roster during a work stoppage.  He can continue to play at AAA during the stoppage.