A look at the Orioles by month - 2021

[Frobby]

I've had a thread going on this since 2011 (with a hiatus in 2018-20), but it was suggested that I separate out the part for 2021.   So, here it is.   I'll reproduce April and May and then do June.

April 2021

12-14 record

6-7 vs. AL East

4-10 at home

8-4 on the road

4-3 in one-run games

2-3 in extra innings

Batting

3.62 runs/game was 14th in the AL

.224 BA was 11th

.282 OBP was 14th

.366 SLG was 14th

.648 OPS was 14th

0.96 HR/G was 13th

.211/.291/.303 with RISP (.594 OPS was worst in the AL) (215 PA, 185 AB, 39 H, 56 TB, 63 TOB)

Pitching

4.01 ERA was 8th in the AL

4.12 RA/G was 8th

1.31 HR/G was 11th

5.00 starter ERA was 14th

4.85 IP/start was 11th

2.81 bullpen ERA was 5th

7 saves was tied for 5th

12 save opportunities was tied for 2nd

5 blown saves was tied for 3rd most

Defense

5 unearned runs was tied for 2nd fewest in the AL

0.46 errors/game (12 errors) was 4th fewest

0.9 fangraphs defense was 7th in AL

2.9 UZR was 4th  (+4.2 OF, -1.3 IF)

+3 Rtot

*2 Rdrs

-1 OAA

Conclusion

The hitting was very poor all month, in pretty much all respects    With the obvious exception of John Means, the starting pitching also was very poor    Relief pitching was the bright spot, and the defense was better than I’d realized, both by standard metrics and advanced metrics.    Overall, 12-14 is a decent start for this team, but the offense and starting pitching will need to improve if the team wants to continue exceeding expectations  

[Frobby]

May 2021 -- you know this is going to be bleak!

5-23 record

2-8 vs. AL East

2-9 at home

3-14 on the road

0-6 in one-run games

0-1 in extra innings

Batting

3.86 runs/game was 13th in the AL

.234 BA was 11th

.307 OBP was 10th

.397 SLG was 8th

.705 OPS was 8th

1.07 HR/G was 10th

.219/.311/.317 with RISP (264 PA, 224 AB, 49 H, 71 TB, 82 TOB)

Pitching

5.89 ERA was last in the AL

5.82 RA/G was last

1.64 HR/G was last

5.69 starter ERA was last

4.63 IP/start was last

6.13 bullpen ERA was last

2 saves was last

8 save opportunities 

6 blown saves 

Defense

9 unearned runs was tied for 5th fewest in the AL

0.54 errors/game (15 errors)

7.6 fangraphs defense

3.6 UZR (-1.7 OF, +5.3 IF)

-17 Rtot

-15 Rdrs

-7 OAA

Cumulative through May 2021

Batting

3.74 runs/game was 13th in the AL

.230 BA was 10th

.295 OBP was 12th

.382 SLG was 9th

.678 OPS was 12th

1.02 HR/G was 12th

.215/.303/.311 with RISP (479 PA, 409 AB, 88 H, 127 TB, 145 TOB)(.615 OPS with RISP was worst  in the AL)

Pitching

4.97 ERA was 14th in the AL

5.00 RA/G was 13th

1.48 HR/G was last

5.35 starter ERA was last

4.63 IP/start was last

4.49 bullpen ERA was 11th

9 saves was last

20 save opportunities was tied for 7th most

11 blown saves was worst

Defense

14 unearned runs was tied for fewest in the AL (3-way tie)

0.50 errors/game (27 errors) was 3rd fewest

8.5 fangraphs defense was 1st in AL

6.5 UZR was 4th  (+2.5 OF, +4.0 IF)

-14 Rtot was 12th

-13 Rdrs was 12th

-8 OAA

Conclusion

The two biggest problems this month were terrible pitching and continued terrible hitting with runners in scoring position.    The pitching was last in almost every category, and the bullpen fell particularly hard, going from a 2.81 ERA in April to 6.13 in May.    If that continues, it's going to be a brutal season.   Needless to say, the starting pitching also was awful, but that was true in April, too.    As to the offense, the raw BA/OBP/SLG numbers were somewhat up, but the RISP hitting continued to be awful.   That was particularly true during the Minnesota and Chicago series, when we finally got a couple of decent pitching performances but couldn't score any runs.   The defense was a mixed bag: standard stats were very good, Fangraphs rated it good, but BB-Ref and Statcast thought it was bad.    I think the bottom line was the defense was not outcome determinative, as other factors were far more important.    Defense certainly didn't impact the 1.64 HR/game the pitchers allowed.

 

[Frobby]

June 2021

10-17 record

2-8 vs. AL East

6-7 at home

4-10 on the road

1-3 in one-run games

1-0 in extra innings

Batting

4.85 runs/game was 8th in the AL

.255 BA was 7th

.317 OBP was 10th

.420 SLG was 10th

.737 OPS was 9th

1.37 HR/G was 9th

.288/.337/.446 with RISP (243 PA, 222 AB, 64 H, 99 TB, 82 TOB)

Pitching

6.38 ERA was last in the AL

6.37 RA/G was last

1.52 HR/G was 5th worst

7.42 starter ERA was last

4.22 IP/start was last

5.40 bullpen ERA was second worst

6 saves was tied for 6th

8 save opportunities 

2 blown saves 

Defense

6 unearned runs was 3rd fewest in the AL

0.48 errors/game (13 errors)

-2.9 fangraphs defense

-0.9 UZR (-1.7 OF, +5.3 IF)

-8 Rtot

+6 Rdrs

-2 OAA

Cumulative through May 2021

Batting

4.11 runs/game was 11th in the AL

.238 BA was 8th

.303 OBP was 12th

.395 SLG was 10th

.698 OPS was 10th

1.14 HR/G was 12th

.241/.316/.358 with RISP (722 PA, 631 AB, 152 H, 226 TB, 227 TOB)(.674 OPS with RISP was 14th in the AL)

Pitching

5.44 ERA was last in the AL

5.46 RA/G was last

1.49 HR/G was last

5.99 starter ERA was last

4.56 IP/start was last

4.82 bullpen ERA was 13th

15 saves was tied for last

28 save opportunities was tied for 10th most

13 blown saves was tied for 3rd most

Defense

20 unearned runs was fewest in the AL 

0.49 errors/game (40 errors) was 4th fewest

4.7 fangraphs defense was 4th in AL

2.7 UZR was 6th  (-3.3 OF, +6.0 IF)

-25 Rtot was 14th

-9 Rdrs was 11th

-13 OAA

Conclusion:

The terrible pitching and shaky defense masked what was a decent offensive month for the Orioles, as runs scored per game was up by 1.11 runs/game from the prior months.   The main cause was a vast improvement in RISP hitting -- .783 OPS for the month in RISP situations, up from .615 in the prior months.     While that was nice, the pitching was putrid, especially the starters who posted a jaw-dropping 7.42 ERA while averaging 4.22 innings per start.   John Means can't get back here fast enough!   The standard metrics showed the O's faring well defensively with only 13 errors and 6 unearned runs, but the advanced metrics told a different story, with every metric but one in negative territory this month.   And, there were a lot of mental errors and sloppy plays this month.   Mostly though, it's the starting pitching that was to blame for our 10-17 record.   The bullpen wasn't stellar either (5.40 ERA) but they did manage to convert 6 of 8 save opportunities.  Let's hope the starting pitchers give us more of a chance in July.

[Moose Milligan]

Damn, the pitching is absolutely brutal.  I knew it was bad, but....damn.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Damn, the pitching is absolutely brutal.  I knew it was bad, but....damn.

Shocking right?

I figured that once Holt got hold of these guys and worked his magic they'd be fine.

Who could have guessed that bringing in a couple of washed up has beens wouldn't pan out?

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Shocking right?

I figured that once Holt got hold of these guys and worked his magic they'd be fine.

Who could have guessed that bringing in a couple of washed up has beens wouldn't pan out?

Was that second part supposed to be in green or something?

Of course no one should be surprised that bringing in washed up players wouldn't pan out.  I'm surprised at people being surprised that guys like Kremer and Akin aren't that great though.  

It's not shocking, IMO, that the pitching is bad.  I'm a little surprised that it's been THAT bad at times. But then I feel like I shouldn't be surprised at how bad it can get, I've been following this franchise long enough.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Shocking right?

I figured that once Holt got hold of these guys and worked his magic they'd be fine.

Who could have guessed that bringing in a couple of washed up has beens wouldn't pan out?

For me, Akin (7.11 ERA) and Kremer (7.25) have been huge disappointments.   I wasn’t expecting either to be a league average starter this year, but I did expect them to be able to post a 4.50 - 5.00 ERA or thereabouts.   I still see flashes of decent pitching from both of them, but they’ve been playing incredibly inconsistent.  To me this is one of the worst developments of the first half of the season.    Still hoping they can get their act together a little in the second half.  

[Just Regular]

I agree on Akin and Kremer.   Any rookie starter without your Rodriguez type pedigree and track record, surviving is thriving.   They could have been 5 IP / 3 ER all year long and I would have been happy as a clam them getting their reps.   Inability to survive is definitely in the range of outcomes, as even the Royals are seeing with their better guys a year ahead of us.

At this point I do psychobabble worry a little about the club's ongoing willingness to use Matt Harvey and some other very obviously not MLB-caliber older players wearing on the better players' mindset.   If Galvis is out long, maybe that Oregon State jolt of Cadyn Grenier will be just what the clubhouse needs to know there's a light at the end of the tunnel.

[Can_of_corn]

32 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Was that second part supposed to be in green or something?

Of course no one should be surprised that bringing in washed up players wouldn't pan out.  I'm surprised at people being surprised that guys like Kremer and Akin aren't that great though.  

It's not shocking, IMO, that the pitching is bad.  I'm a little surprised that it's been THAT bad at times. But then I feel like I shouldn't be surprised at how bad it can get, I've been following this franchise long enough.

Whole thing was green.

Unless of course you think Holt is secretly Rumpelstiltskin. 

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Whole thing was green.

Unless of course you think Holt is secretly Rumpelstiltskin. 

IMO, a pitching coach can only do so much.  

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

IMO, a pitching coach can only do so much.  

I’m pretty sure Corn’s post was aimed at one particular poster who was attributing superhuman powers to Holt.  But of course you are correct.   

[Moose Milligan]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m pretty sure Corn’s post was aimed at one particular poster who was attributing superhuman powers to Holt.  But of course you are correct.   

I know.

And I know.   

[Sports Guy]

I’m just glad we are losing on purpose as that means we will definitely win a lot of games long term!

[Ruzious]

11 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Was that second part supposed to be in green or something?

 

Hey, green font was a great idea!  People also scoffed when Copernicus said the earth was flat.   

[Frobby]

July 2021

10-12 record

2-3 vs. AL East

5-5 at home

5-7 on the road

3-3 in one-run games

0-1 in extra innings

Batting

4.41 runs/game was 9th in the AL

.232 BA was 11th

.303 OBP was 12th

.400 SLG was 11th

.703 OPS was 10th

1.23 HR/G was 10th

.231/.309/.329 with RISP (207 PA, 173 AB, 40 H, 57 TB, 64 TOB)

Pitching

5.35 ERA was last in the AL

5.50 RA/G was 14th

1.32 HR/G was 5th worst

5.67 starter ERA was 12th

4.62 IP/start was last

5.01 bullpen ERA was 11th

3 saves was tied for 2nd lowest

5 save opportunities 

2 blown saves 

Defense

6 unearned runs was tied for 4th fewest in the AL

0.45 errors/game (10 errors)

+3.3. fangraphs defense

+0.3 UZR (-3.0 OF, +3.3 IF)

-7 Rtot

-11 Rdrs

-1 OAA

Cumulative through July 2021

Batting

4.17 runs/game was 12th in the AL

.237 BA was 9th

.303 OBP was 12th

.396 SLG was 11th

.699 OPS was 12th

1.16 HR/G was 11th

.239/.315/.352 with RISP (929 PA,  804 AB, 192 H, 283 TB, 291 TOB)(.667 OPS with RISP was 14th in the AL)

Pitching

5.42 ERA was last in the AL

5.47 RA/G was last

1.46 HR/G was 14th

5.92 starter ERA was last

4.57 IP/start was last

4.86 bullpen ERA was 13th

18 saves was tied for last

33 save opportunities was tied for 2nd fewest 

15 blown saves was tied for 6th fewest

13 blown saves was tied for 3rd most

Defense

26 unearned runs was fewest in the AL 

0.49 errors/game (50 errors) was 4th fewest

8.0 fangraphs defense was 6th in AL

3.0 UZR was 7th  (-6.3 OF, +9.3 IF)

-32 Rtot was 14th

-20 Rdrs was 13th

-14 OAA

Conclusion:  It's kind of hard to say how the O's went 10-12 last month, while being 9th in runs/game and 14th in runs allowed per game.  I think the pitching, while terrible, was not nearly as terrible as in May and June, and gave us a chance to win in a number of games.  The pitchers allowed 4 runs or less in nine games, and we won eight of those.  The offense, while mediocre, was consistent.   They never scored more than 8 runs all month, but never got shut out, either.   The team scored 5+ runs 12 times and won 9 of them.   Overall, the sequencing went well this month, and we had a lot of games where both the pitching and the hitting were decent in the same game.

Hopefully, it's something to build on.