A look at the Orioles by month - 2021

[Pickles]

Winning a few more games is nice.

I would like to see the pitching improve.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Pickles said:

Winning a few more games is nice.

I would like to see the pitching improve.

ERA by month:

April 4.01

May 5.89

June 6.38

July 5.35

Improvement!

[spiritof66]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

ERA by month:

April 4.01

May 5.89

June 6.38

July 5.35

Improvement!

ERA since the break (15 games) = 4.48. (Thanks, Matt Harvey.)

[Frobby]

August 2021 -- you know this is going to be ugly!

4-24 record

2-16 vs. AL East

2-13 at home

2-11 on the road

0-2 in one-run games

0-0 in extra innings

Batting

3.86 runs/game was 14th in the AL

.250 BA was 10th

.302 OBP was 12th

.432 SLG was 6th

.734 OPS was 9th

1.39 HR/G was 6th

.214/.291/.303 with RISP (223 PA, 201 AB, 43 H, 61 TB, 68 TOB)

Pitching

7.43 ERA was last in the AL

7.43 RA/G was last

1.89 HR/G was last

7.20 starter ERA was last

4.60 IP/start was 13th

7.69 bullpen ERA was last

1 save was last

4 save opportunities 

3 blown saves 

Defense

9 unearned runs was tied for 6th fewest in the AL

0.39 errors/game (11 errors)

-7.2 fangraphs defense

-8.2 UZR (-1.4 OF, -6.8 IF)

-13 Rtot

-17 Rdrs

-2 OAA

Cumulative through August 2021

Batting

4.11 runs/game was 14th in the AL

.240 BA was 9th

.303 OBP was 13th

.404 SLG was 10th

.707 OPS was 11th

1.21 HR/G was 12th

.234/.311/.342 with RISP (1163 PA,  1005 AB, 235 H, 344 TB, 359 TOB)(.653 OPS with RISP was last in the AL)

Pitching

5.84 ERA was last in the AL

5.89 RA/G was last

1.55 HR/G was last

6.20 starter ERA was last

4.58 IP/start was last

5.46 bullpen ERA was last 

19 saves was last

37 save opportunities was last

18 blown saves was tied for 5th fewest

Defense

36 unearned runs was fewest in the AL 

0.47 errors/game (61 errors) was 3rd fewest

0.8 fangraphs defense was 8th in AL

-5.2 UZR was 7th  (-7.7 OF, +2.5 IF)

-45 Rtot was 14th

- 27 Rdrs was 12th

-16 OAA

Conclusion:  I said it was going to be ugly!    The offense was merely bad; the raw slash line stats not awful but the .594 OPS with RISP doomed them to score very few runs (and it was even worse than that during the 19-game losing streak).   The pitching, though, was worse, and nearly historically bad.   The starting pitching has been bad all season, and was even worse than usual, but the bullpen completely imploded.   As documented elsewhere, the team ERA was one of the top 10 worst team ERA months in major league history.   The defense didn't help, either -- every advanced defensive metric pointed downward.  All in all, it is a month I never want to think about again, but I am sure that will be impossible.    Just hoping September looks nothing like it.

[Can_of_corn]

Not all bad, they were .500 in extra inning contests.

[Frobby]

September/October2021 -- finally getting around to this.

11-20 record

6-14 vs. AL East

8-10 at home

3-10 on the road

5-7 in one-run games

1-4 in extra innings

Batting

3.90 runs/game was 14th in the AL

.237 BA was 12th

.308 OBP was 10th

.391 SLG was 12th

.699 OPS was 12th

1.19 HR/G was 7th

.225/.314/.398 with RISP (274 PA, 236 AB, 53 H, 94 TB, 86 TOB)

Pitching

5.84 ERA was last in the AL

5.97 RA/G was last

1.77 HR/G was last

5.05 starter ERA was 12th

4.37 IP/start was 12th

6.63 bullpen ERA was last

7 saves was tied for 8th

17 save opportunities 

10 blown saves 

Defense

10 unearned runs was tied for 10th fewest in the AL

0.42 errors/game (13 errors)

-0.7 fangraphs defense

1.3 UZR (+ 3.3 OF, +2.0 IF)

-1 Rtot

-3 Rdrs

0 OAA

Cumulative through September/October 2021

Batting

4.07 runs/game was 14th in the AL

.239 BA was 10th

.304 OBP was 12th

.402 SLG was 11th

.705 OPS was 12th

1.20 HR/G was 10th

.232/.311/.353 with RISP (1437 PA,  1241 AB, 288 H, 438 TB, 445 TOB)(.664 OPS with RISP was last in the AL)

Pitching

5.84 ERA was last in the AL

5.90 RA/G was last

1.59 HR/G was last

5.99 starter ERA was last

4.54 IP/start was last

5.70 bullpen ERA was last 

26 saves was last

54 save opportunities was 13th

28 blown saves was tied for 2nd most

Defense

46 unearned runs was fewest in the AL 

0.46 errors/game (74 errors) was 3rd fewest

0.1 fangraphs defense was 8th in AL

-3.9 UZR was 10th  (-4.4 OF, +0.5 IF)

-46 Rtot was 14th

- 30 Rdrs was 12th

-16 OAA

Conclusion:  The offense was pretty much its usual well below average self in September/October, and while the hitting with RISP was a little better than it was on the season as a whole (.712 OPS vs. .664), somehow the team still was 14th in runs per game despite doing better than that in BA, OBP, SLG and OPS (all in the 10th-12th range).   Not epically bad, just regular bad.   The starting pitching also was only regular bad, and better than its usual epically awful, posting a 5.05 ERA in September/October compared to 5.99 on the season.   But the bullpen really carried the team to the no. 1 draft pick, posting a 6.63 ERA for the month and blowing 10 of 17 save opportunities.   Think about that -- 17 save opportunities in one month is a lot!   But the pen blew more than half of them.   The pen was epically bad this season, and even more horrible in September/October.   Finally, the defense was sort of middling in the final month, both by standard and advanced metrics.   It's interesting that on the year, the O's allowed the fewest unearned runs of any team in the league, and the 3rd fewest errors, and yet, Rdrs had them at -46 runs, Rtot said -30, and OAA said -16.   

All in all, there's a ton of work to do in all areas for 2022.   The pitching in particular just has to get better.   And I think it will, because it pretty much cannot get worse, either for the starters (5.99 ERA for the year while covering only 4.54 IP per start) or the bullpen (5.70 ERA and a 48% save rate).    But how much better is the key to how significantly our team will improve in 2021.

[Frobby]

Here are some key monthly splits.

Offense

 March/April (12-14 record): 3.62 R/G (14^th), .224/.282/.366 (14^th in OPS), 0.96 HR/G (13^th), .211/.291/.303 with RISP.

May (5-23): 3.86 R/G (13^th), .234/.307/.397 (8^th), 1.07 HR/G (10^th), .219/.311/.317 with RISP

June (10-17): 4.85 R/G (8^th), .255/.317/.420 (9^th), 1.37 HR/G (9^th), .288/.337/.446 with RISP

July (10-12): 4.41 R/G (9^th), .232/.303/.400 (10^th), 1.23 HR/G (10^th), .231/.309/.329 with RISP

August (4-24): 3.86 R/G (14^th), .250/.302/.432 (9^th), 1.39 HR/G (6^th), .214/.291/.303 with RISP

Sept./Oct. (11-20): 3.90 R/G (14^th), .237/.308/.391 (12^th), 1.19 HR/G (7^th), .225/.314/.398 with RISP

Pitching

 March/April (12-14): 4.01 ERA (8^th), 5.00 starters (14^th), 4.85 IP/S (11^th), 2.81 relievers (5^th), 7 of 12 saves

May (5-23): 5.89 ERA (15^th), 5.69 starters (15^th), 4.63 IP/S (15^th), 6.13 relievers (15^th), 2 of 8 saves

June (10-17): 6.38 ERA (15^th), 7.42 starters (15^th), 4.22 IP/S (15^th), 5.40 relievers (14^th), 6 of 8 saves

July (10-12): 5.35 ERA (15^th), 5.67 starters (12^th), 4.62 IP/S (15^th), 5.01 relievers (11^th), 3 of 5 saves

August (4-24): 7.43 ERA (15^th), 7.20 starters (15^th), 4.60 IP/S (13^th), 7.69 relievers (15^th), 1 of 4 saves

Sept./Oct. (11-20): 5.84 ERA (15^th), 5.05 starters (12^th), 4.37 IP/S (12^th), 6.63 relievers (15^th), 7 of 17 saves

 

I’ve bolded a few things that really stood out to me.   On offense, we had four of six moths where we were absolutely terrible with RISP.    For context, the league average slash line with RISP was .255/.333/.422.   In particular, look at the slugging percentages with RISP in the four feeble months: .303, .317, .329, and .303.   Just goes to show how empty most of our homers were.

As to pitching, the starters and bullpen were both very respectable in March/April and gave us false hopes for a fun summer.    They were both terrible thereafter, and I think an under-discussed aspect was how bad the bullpen was, not just in ERA but bottom line results in failing to preserve leads, especially over the last two months of the year.   If you want to see a significant improvement in the team’s record next year, a halfway respectable performance by the bullpen would go a surprisingly long way.