I’m about ready to give up on DJ Stewart

[Gurgi]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Interesting choice of comp.

Out of all of the Moneyball draftees, perhaps no one received as much attention as Brown, Oakland's 35th overall pick. In fact, there was an entire chapter in the book named after him ("The Jeremy Brown Blue Plate Special"). Brown was a controversial figure, seen by most teams as someone who shouldn't even be drafted. However, Beane saw him as a productive force at the plate. After all, he was a catcher who could hit and, more importantly, draw walks. Brown is also known as the guy in Moneyball who was constantly the butt of fat jokes that seemed to never end. "This kid wears a large pair of underwear," one of Oakland's scouts quipped when discussing Brown. "It's a soft body...A fleshy kind of a body," said another. Despite the criticism, Beane selected the 5'10, 210 pound Alabama product, who does have a .300 career average in the major leagues. Unfortunately, Brown only appeared in five games for Oakland, all at the end of 2006, and announced his retirement before the 2008 season.

[Ripken]

He's made just over $3M.  He should go to Japan and make what he can.  

[spiritof66]

53 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Chubby fringe defensive players don't tend to get better as they age. I'd say this is the worse I've seen him in the outfield. He was never great, but was effective at times in the minors, but he is well below average now. 

I looked at the Savant numbers to back up my eyes and they agree:

Stewart's reaction time -1.1 ft/sec avg and -1 ft/sec burst are his career worse. His feet covered for each play this year has been -2.2 feet per sec slower than major league average. He has a -3 catch  percentage added. 

His 4.49 speed to first base puts him as a 30 runner. He was a 4.32 runner to first in 2019 (50).

So he's getting slower, has less burst and reaction, and is now 27 years old. 

 

How would you time DJ's speed to first base? He only gets there via walks.  

[Philip]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I see a play that could happen to a lot of guys.  Using one dumb play to determine something like that is absurd.

Go back in 2020 at his amazing stretch at the plate and tell me that he’s not a big leaguer.  I’m sure you could pull anyone off the street and have him accomplish what DJ did in that stretch, right?

The point isnt that DJ did well for a time( if you call hitting below .200  doing well)but his virtue was in his OBP and his power, neither of which he has any longer.

If he had some defensive value, he might be useable, but unlike McKenna, he is not good with a glove.

I don’t know how long a leash he should have, but he’s not playing now, which indicates that whoever makes the lineups doesn’t want to play him, so it is unlikely he will be an Oriole in January.

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, Philip said:

The point isnt that DJ did well for a time( if you call hitting below .200  doing well)but his virtue was in his OBP and his power, neither of which he has any longer.

If he had some defensive value, he might be useable, but unlike McKenna, he is not good with a glove.

I don’t know how long a leash he should have, but he’s not playing now, which indicates that whoever makes the lineups doesn’t want to play him, so it is unlikely he will be an Oriole in January.

There is a thing in the AL called the DH.  You don’t need to have value with the glove if you hit if you play in the AL.  

[Philip]

31 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m actually working on a project right now to define what constitutes a good draft, great draft, poor draft, awful draft etc.   Not focused on individual performance but total yield from a draft. I’m about 60% done and will post something in the next week or two when I finish.   

As to Stewart, there is no doubt that webbrick2010 hated that pick pretty much from day one and said so dozens of times while Stewart was in the minors and whenever he was struggling in the majors.   I always thought he was too critical of a guy who was still developing and too quick to judge.   And, it’s true that Stewart has outperformed 40% of all no. 25 picks who never reached the majors, so calling the pick horrible seems over the top to me still.   But, I can’t deny that Stewart hasn’t developed into a good major league player and at this point it seems likely that he never will.   I’ll take some solace from the fact that we also took Mullins and Mountcastje in that draft, as well as 4 other players who reached the majors (McKenna, Cleavinger, Meissinger and Flaa).   We may still look back on that draft someday and say it was pretty good.  We’ve certainly had many that were worse.   
 

Well, you have to define successful. In a sense, getting to the majors at all is successful, but I don’t think anybody would say that one day in the major leagues is successful, or one season in the major leagues is successful( was Jason Garcia successful? Henry Urrutia? Steve Lombardozzi?) and I don’t think a team would call a player successful if they draft him in the second round, give him $1 million signing bonus, and he only makes it to one day or one week in the majors. I call that a failure every day of the week.

Making it to the big leagues is an accomplishment, and make no mistake, but accomplishing that is not being successful, it’s just a step forward in the process.

You have define “successful” a little bit higher up on the food chain. 
I’m not sure what defines successful, but Stewart isn’t, especially as a first-round draft pick. If he were, we wouldn’t be having this little chat.

Edited August 9, 2021 by Philip

[Gurgi]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There is a thing in the AL called the DH.  You don’t need to have value with the glove if you hit if you play in the AL.  

This guy is not Harold Baines or David Ortiz.  We need our DH for guys like Mancini.  

[Philip]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There is a thing in the AL called the DH.  You don’t need to have value with the glove if you hit if you play in the AL.  

Yes but you have to hit. So yeah, that’s a thing too.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Philip said:

Well, you have to define successful. In a sense, getting to the majors at all is successful, but I don’t think anybody would say that one day in the major leagues is successful, or one season in the major leagues is successful( was Jason Garcia successful? Henry Urrutia? Steve Lombardozzi?) and I don’t think a team would call a player successful if they draft him in the second round, give him $1 million signing bonus, and he only makes it to one day or one week in the majors. I call that a failure every day of the week.

Making it to the big leagues is an accomplishment, and make no mistake, but accomplishing that is not being successful, it’s just a step forward in the process.

You have define “successful” a little bit higher up on the food chain. 
I’m not sure what defines successful, but Stewart isn’t, especially as a first-round draft pick. If he were, we wouldn’t be having this little chat.

So it sounds like you’d kind of treat it like batting average, i.e., you only get a “hit” 25-30% of the time.   18 out of 55 no. 25 picks have been worth 1.0 WAR, so maybe that’s a cutoff.  

Anyway, there’s a place between being a “successful” pick and being a “terrible” pick, and that’s where Stewart resides IMO.
 

 

[Jammer7]

I agree that DJ has had ample opportunity to perform, and he simply has not gotten the job done offensively or defensively. He should have claimed the majority of the DH at bats this season. He is not going to get any more athletic, and they should hide his glove from him. His eye at the plate is excellent, sure. In this season, he is almost always late on the fastball and appears to be caught in-between. Not sure why. Is he unable to recognize pitches? The bat is not quick, but I wouldn't say he has a slow bat either. The hands can work, and they should. For me, it just looks to be all mental. He cannot be sitting on the fastball right now, but maybe he should. What does he have to lose at this point? He should sit dead red and never get off it. 

If you consistently cannot hit even an average fastball, you are not a major league player. 

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Elias just gave a million to a High School Catcher that looks to be on the plump side.

Was that a bad idea?

I have dramatically difference expectations in the athleticism of catchers vs. outfielders.

Am I wrong?

[Sports Guy]

39 minutes ago, Philip said:

Yes but you have to hit. So yeah, that’s a thing too.

Well yes..which is what I have already said.  But I have a feeling if he had a 200/350/450 line, you would think he was horrible and should be cut.

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’m actually working on a project right now to define what constitutes a good draft, great draft, poor draft, awful draft etc.   Not focused on individual performance but total yield from a draft. I’m about 60% done and will post something in the next week or two when I finish.   

As to Stewart, there is no doubt that webbrick2010 hated that pick pretty much from day one and said so dozens of times while Stewart was in the minors and whenever he was struggling in the majors.   I always thought he was too critical of a guy who was still developing and too quick to judge.   And, it’s true that Stewart has outperformed 40% of all no. 25 picks who never reached the majors, so calling the pick horrible seems over the top to me still.   But, I can’t deny that Stewart hasn’t developed into a good major league player and at this point it seems likely that he never will.   I’ll take some solace from the fact that we also took Mullins and Mountcastje in that draft, as well as 4 other players who reached the majors (McKenna, Cleavinger, Meissinger and Flaa).   We may still look back on that draft someday and say it was pretty good.  We’ve certainly had many that were worse.   
 

That sounds like an interesting project and I look forward to seeing it when you post it.

You know I first started to realize how difficult  the draft is many years ago when I just started strolling through O's drafts from the 60s and 70s.  This was the best organization in baseball; famous for its ability to procure and develop amateur talent; and they would go years without drafting a major league player.  I just went back and looked at the 65 and 66 drafts.  Terry Crowley's career WAR of 2.5 is their best player, and the only the reason their draft picks didn't total negative WAR.

Far as Stewart, I personally try not to make concrete statement about draft picks and prospects, because I just don't have enough information, and you almost have to defer to those that do.  However, I hate the profile, and he is the TYPE I would avoid with premium picks.

[Philip]

47 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So it sounds like you’d kind of treat it like batting average, i.e., you only get a “hit” 25-30% of the time.   18 out of 55 no. 25 picks have been worth 1.0 WAR, so maybe that’s a cutoff.  

Anyway, there’s a place between being a “successful” pick and being a “terrible” pick, and that’s where Stewart resides IMO.
 

 

Well like I said, you have to define your terms. If you went to the Orioles management and showed them Stewart’s career, and his salary and said, “are you happy with this” They would say no, and Stewart with himself also say no. They would all agree that getting as far as he did and making as much money as he did was an accomplishment, but they would deny that it was successful.

Was it a terrible pick? I dunno; how do you define “terrible”?

And again, you would have to offer a definition of “successful” in order for us to determine whether Stewart has been. 
I am leaning towards no, because nobody, including Stewart himself, is happy with what he has done, because what he has done is barely above zero WAR, and with his Pedegree and bonus, much more was expected.

It is quite true that the vast majority of draft picks are unsuccessful, but the expectations of success, however you define success, decrease with each successive round in the draft, and the first rounders are the ones who are expected to fit any definition of successful, and he doesn’t.

You can find any number of first round draft picks who have been worse, but the fact that they are worse, does not make Stewart better.

So yeah. 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, spiritof66 said:

How would you time DJ's speed to first base? He only gets there via walks.  

Haha. I actually got those times off baseball savant.