Plan for .500 on $20M (Constructive Posts Only, Please)

[Sports Guy]

5 hours ago, jdwilde1 said:

Here’s a link to the 2022 MLB unrestricted free agent class.  https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/ufa/
 

Some really big names are available.  Also, quite a few ex-O’s including Cobb, Bundy, Gausman, Eduardo Rodriguez, Andrew Miller, Zach Davies, and Nelson Cruz.

Another question is what would you do if the $100M floor is adopted (although I expect it would be implemented in stages).

Bryant, Stroman and David Price.  
 

That should cost 60-70M in 2022.

[ChosenOne21]

I think your plan is decent, but a lot of our prospects will probably underperform even your modest projections. This isn't a knock on the Orioles so much as it is the way prospects are. I don't think it's likely we can get to .500 for $20M. Possible, but pretty unlikely

[Aristotelian]

Just bumping this thread to take a look at the plan I proposed in hindsight. It turned out the O's spent about half what I proposed on different players but we are close to the .500 mark I was hoping for. Instead of Ray/Harrison/Boxberger putting up 6 WAR, we got Lyles/Odor  on track for about 1 WAR. That means the vast majority of our improvement has come from internal sources. If we had gone with my plan, Boxberger probably does little to help us but with Ray instead of Lyles we might be in position for the wild card instead of a couple games out. Still, Elias got us to essentially the same place at lower cost and without a commitment to Ray. 

C - I projected Rutschman for 4 wins. Looks like he could hit that. 

IF - I was looking for 2 WAR from Harrison. Instead we got replacement level from Odor but Mateo is exceeding that. 

OF/DH - I projected 4 WAR from Mullins, 1.5 Hays, 1 Santander, 1.5 Mancini. This looks pretty good give or take. 

Rotation - My rotation prediction is completely off. I had been projecting about 3 WAR each from Means, Grayson, and Ray. Instead we got 0 from Lyles. We should be getting destroyed and yet our rotation of Wells, Lyles, Voth, Wakins, and Kremer has made up at least some of that ground. 

Bullpen - I had somehow left out Wells and Tate from my post and instead had a bullpen of Boxberger, Sulser, Scott, Hunter Harvey (remember him?) and Bautista putting up 5 WAR. Instead we've gotten perhaps 10 WAR from a combination of Jorge, Bautista, Tate, Akin, Krehbiel, and Perez. Bautista was the only guy I got remotely right. 

Basically what seems to have happened is the pitching has wildly outperformed resulting in a pace that actually puts us ahead of .500. Still tough to imagine this holds up without Means and now Wells plus losing Grayson before his season even started. 

 

[paullwaull]

This was a fun read having never seen it last year when you wrote it and knowing what we know now.  Cheers mate.